Draft thread

[GoingCommando]

Skattebo = a more physical Austin Ekeler. He's got top notch quickness, creativity, balance, patience, and vision, but a much more rugged build than Ekeler. This dude is our juiciest mid round opportunity for a do it all workhorse stud back.

Anyone know which running backs we've actually met with? Just Kaleb Johnson?

We know we need a zone running back and that Robinson isn't it. The scheme narrows down the list and, IMO, Johnson and Skattebo are exactly the kind of zone runners we're shopping for. Skattebo will be there when our pick finally comes around in the middle of the draft, Johnson might not be there when we pick in the 60s.

They've met with a lot of RBs:

Jeanty (oddly enough), Kaleb, Skattebo, T Brooks, (I think Etienne), Woody Marks, Henderson, Tuten, Blue, Croskey-Merritt, O. Gordon, Jordan James.

As for recent mentions from Keim, (I take the recent ones as the draft approaches more seriously), he's made it clear they really like Henderson and Tuten. And Skattebo is a recent mention.

I saw that we hosted Gordon and Blue and then had some kind of workout with Tuten, but I didn't see where the interest in Henderson or Skattebo came from. When did we meet with Skattebo?

Re: the Top Golf thing, I think it became clear in retrospect that Florio and Simms were right that we did that because Josh Harris only had a day to meet with our QB prospects, and that was how we crammed them all in. And I remember that it spooked Jayden and we had to make special effort afterwards to smooth things over with him. I can see how it's more relaxed and I think most players would see it as an easy day of job interviewing and roll with it. But I don't love that we are still doing this. I don't see how it could possibly increase the amount of time our coaches get to spend with these guys compared to having them in and working with them one at a time. Is this really going to smoke out what the prospect is like in a locker room?

[skinsinparadise]

Answering my own question, I see now that we've either had a T30 or multiple meetings with Ollie Gordon and Tuten too. They are definitely hunting for a zone back.

The most exciting names on our T30 visits for me other than Kaleb are Ezeiruaku and Tre Harris, but I also like that we met with Ashton Gilotte. Gilotte is a mid rounder, but a good player. Maybe coming off a bit of a down season compared to 2023, but I still really like him. Ezeiruaku I love. I think he's the best or second best pure rusher in the class. Way better than a lot of the guys being projected ahead of him. I saw that we traded down I Kipers mock draft and still got him. I don't think that's happening. If we pass on him at 29, I don't think the Chiefs or Eagles will too. As for Tre Harris, I think I posted a bunch about him on old ES before the site got taken down. Long story short, he was one of my favorite prospects heading into the season, and I think the value of his draft stock is really good if we can get him in the second.

I'm intrigued with the Conerly interest. His film is not very impressive, but I'm intrigued by his speed. I think he's quicker than Membou and I think he has a better NFL body than Membou does. I don't love the idea of drafting an OT that needs quite a bit of physical development and work before he can start at 29, especially when a stud like Ezeiruaku might be there. But after a trade down, that's a more palatable value for Conerly. Getting an OL with elite speed for the pipeline would be nice, and even though it kind of feels like we're well off on OL after the Tunsil trade, it's never a good idea to neglect this position. Philly wouldn't.

I'm not as intrigued by all of the Wyatt Milum meetings though. I'm going to watch him again and reassess, but my first impression of him was that he is a super slow and lumbering player who just didn't impress me with his range or accuracy as a run blocker.

Milum i watched a little but, I recall my impression about him was similar to Coleman last year, better guard, I recall liking how he anchored and I could see that translating but I need to rewatch.

As for their interest. Judging primarily by Keim. lol, he's still the best at scoops. I recall last year some saying (not you) that Keim lost his fastball when he was suggesting relatively early on that he believes they prefer Jayden over Maye. And he was right about a few other things, too. Granted, its not like when Ron was there. Ron would tell everyone apparently who they liked and why and made his need based draft approach clear.

So just yesterday, here are some targets Keim suggested:

A. Heavy interest in D line, CB, RB, O line. Maybe WR, more likely in a trade down. They are open to taking BPA at any position but everything being equal those seem to the spots they are hottest for.

B. D line he mentioned: Ezeiruaku, Kennard (later in the draft), JT. Tuiomoloau, Landon Jackson, Mykel Williams. He was vague about their interest but also mentioned they met with S. Stewart. He's mentioned Harmon several times in hypotheticals without saying they are interested. But when Keim keeps going back to a player in a hypothetical it often has meaning.

C. CB. Spent some time on Hairston. I get the vibe decoding Keim speak they are hot for him if they stay at 29 and he's there. A. Thomas. Amos. Q. Riley.

D. RB -- I posted about that already. They are poking at a lot of RBs. But judging by multiple Keim podcasts, I get the vibe they are especially into Henderson and Tuten. But I am gathering they got like 12 or so targets at that spot so anything can happen.

E. WR. As you mentioned they did meet with Tre Harris. I know also Pat Bryant (who is a great run blocker) but the dude he mentioned their interest in later in the draft is Felton.

I get the vibe that they want to trade down and if they can get three picks in the first three rounds, everything being equal it will be edge, CB, and RB. But if there is some surprise faller in another position they will pounce.

[skinsinparadise]

Skattebo = a more physical Austin Ekeler. He's got top notch quickness, creativity, balance, patience, and vision, but a much more rugged build than Ekeler. This dude is our juiciest mid round opportunity for a do it all workhorse stud back.

Anyone know which running backs we've actually met with? Just Kaleb Johnson?

We know we need a zone running back and that Robinson isn't it. The scheme narrows down the list and, IMO, Johnson and Skattebo are exactly the kind of zone runners we're shopping for. Skattebo will be there when our pick finally comes around in the middle of the draft, Johnson might not be there when we pick in the 60s.

They've met with a lot of RBs:

Jeanty (oddly enough), Kaleb, Skattebo, T Brooks, (I think Etienne), Woody Marks, Henderson, Tuten, Blue, Croskey-Merritt, O. Gordon, Jordan James.

As for recent mentions from Keim, (I take the recent ones as the draft approaches more seriously), he's made it clear they really like Henderson and Tuten. And Skattebo is a recent mention.

I saw that we hosted Gordon and Blue and then had some kind of workout with Tuten, but I didn't see where the interest in Henderson or Skattebo came from. When did we meet with Skattebo?

Re: the Top Golf thing, I think it became clear in retrospect that Florio and Simms were right that we did that because Josh Harris only had a day to meet with our QB prospects, and that was how we crammed them all in. And I remember that it spooked Jayden and we had to make special effort afterwards to smooth things over with him. I can see how it's more relaxed and I think most players would see it as an easy day of job interviewing and roll with it. But I don't love that we are still doing this. I don't see how it could possibly increase the amount of time our coaches get to spend with these guys compared to having them in and working with them one at a time. Is this really going to smoke out what the prospect is like in a locker room?

Keim mentioned every prospect they drafted last year they met with at the combine except one. So those are the key. They seem very secretive about their combine meetings. I think we only know about 12 or so of them even though they can have up to 45 of them.

Keim has mentioned Tuten multiple times and flat out said in the last podcast he knows they are interested. But didn't say when and where they met. But knowing how much he values the importance of the combine meetings, I'd assume they met there. Ditto Henderson, and Standig disclosed they met at the combine.

Keim referenced Skattebo for the first time yesterday. He didn't say when and where they met but I also assume the combine. He among others said the top 30 meetings aren't as signficant as the combine meetings -- often its cross checking injuries and feeling out things you aren't sure about the player.

As for the top golf, Florio hated it last time, he hates it this time. I'll give that he's consistent. Just like Jon Ledyard hated our off season moves last year, and he hates our off season this year. Keim talked about it in his last podcast saying its much ado about nothing. Last year Jayden's agent didn't love it, clearly.

But apparently according to Keim, Jayden dug it fine and came out of that last visit knowing he's their guy. If you recall Quinn came and picked Jayden up personally at their airport for that one. Other players who participated in it seemed to have a good time. And judging by the photos posted by some involved with it this time, they seem to enjoy it.

Florio in his article goes at "best its a social psychology" experiment and no other team does it. Apparently the 49ers indeed do a variation of the same thing, that's where Peters took it from. And "at best its a social psychology experiement". That line i found laughable. It's like being a customer at a restaurtant and saying at best I ate until i was satisified. The whole idea is of course a social psychology experiment. Not at best. At best implies that Peters just gets his jollies from studying college prospects golf swing.

[Warhead36]

Skattebo = a more physical Austin Ekeler. He's got top notch quickness, creativity, balance, patience, and vision, but a much more rugged build than Ekeler. This dude is our juiciest mid round opportunity for a do it all workhorse stud back.

Anyone know which running backs we've actually met with? Just Kaleb Johnson?

We know we need a zone running back and that Robinson isn't it. The scheme narrows down the list and, IMO, Johnson and Skattebo are exactly the kind of zone runners we're shopping for. Skattebo will be there when our pick finally comes around in the middle of the draft, Johnson might not be there when we pick in the 60s.

They've met with a lot of RBs:

Jeanty (oddly enough), Kaleb, Skattebo, T Brooks, (I think Etienne), Woody Marks, Henderson, Tuten, Blue, Croskey-Merritt, O. Gordon, Jordan James.

As for recent mentions from Keim, (I take the recent ones as the draft approaches more seriously), he's made it clear they really like Henderson and Tuten. And Skattebo is a recent mention.

I saw that we hosted Gordon and Blue and then had some kind of workout with Tuten, but I didn't see where the interest in Henderson or Skattebo came from. When did we meet with Skattebo?

Re: the Top Golf thing, I think it became clear in retrospect that Florio and Simms were right that we did that because Josh Harris only had a day to meet with our QB prospects, and that was how we crammed them all in. And I remember that it spooked Jayden and we had to make special effort afterwards to smooth things over with him. I can see how it's more relaxed and I think most players would see it as an easy day of job interviewing and roll with it. But I don't love that we are still doing this. I don't see how it could possibly increase the amount of time our coaches get to spend with these guys compared to having them in and working with them one at a time. Is this really going to smoke out what the prospect is like in a locker room?

It didn't spook Jayden. His agent panicked a bit but Peters (who has a relationship with him) smoothed it over.

Its a non issue and good way to see how these prospects vibe when outside of the normal pre draft grind.

[Brave]

[Brave]

[The Consigliere]

PFf guys also love them some RJ Harvey. I bring them up since I know you are mostly about the analytics. I think we got to look at this team not same old same old (no pun intended). But with the lense of winning the SB in the next two years.

And everything is not cut the same. Context is king. Lets say Harvey drops to the late 4th, and he's by far their top RB on their board. You take him if you are looking for a RB at that spot. I know we are accustomed to thinking about hey maybe in 3 years if this or that happens. But IMO we are smack in the window now. Not 2028. Now. So lets say Harvey kills it this year or next and helps win a SB -- I can care less if he's done after that.

In the past, we were building up to the wedding as to the team. We were dating. The wedding was far off. Everything was about what happens later in theory. Now, we are married. I get it came out of nowhere and its not easy to adjust to the 180 or heck maybe even believe it because it happened so unexpectedly and fast. But it did happen and IMO we got to change the mindset.

We are used to all the coaches (sans Gibbs) here speaking of success as some far off future thing. Each coach seem to be selling a 5 year rebuild. Shanny and Rivera flat out said it. Jay not so much to his credit. But the future always seemed later. The feast was years down the road -- not today. But now we are at the buffett --and we can eat.

Said more simply, if you gave me an option A of a B plus level RB that helps win a SB in the next two seasons and then flames out. Or option B, a B level RB, who doesn't help win a SB and we end up short but heck we got 5 seasons out of him. I'll take option A. But if I thought this team was same old same old, I'd want option B.

I'm skeptical, but if you make something cheap enough, I'll look at almost anything. For Harvey to make sense as a value, I'd want to see him somewhere between about 135 and below. W/that age, he might have 2, or a max of 3 prime athletic seasons left if he hits. Not enough for me to justify day 3 draft capital even though he blew the roof off the place at the combine. But if you are offering him as a mid 4th or later? yeah, I might do that. His athletic profile and relative inexperience at the position suggests he might be able to provide more value than one would expect, but w/his age, I need a discount to justify such a selection.

Yeah late 4th is where I expect him to go primarily because of his age. They are in window now with Jayden, yolo.

Kinda don't really agree w/some of how they are playing it. The cheap window is still '25, '26, '27, even to a degree, the rookie option '28. They should be playing a bit longer game than just 1-2 year deals. I'd hope/like to think that part of the reason they went after Deebo/Gallup/Chris Moore (the latter is still kinda sneaky, '16 deep threat drafted by Ravens, another in a long line of Maryland/DC Football WR's that busted, I wonder why both our teams are so horrible at drafting and developing WR's?) is that those guys and McLaurin can be stop gaps during the god awful WR classes of '25 and '26, before the loaded '27 class. But maybe it's just buying cheap on discarded talents? Not really sure. They didn't cost much at all, and Gallup and Deebo, for sure, present value, in the short and intermediate game (Deebo) and intermediate and long (Gallup). They should spackle over WR. I would not draft a WR in this situation, and don't under stand the talk of going after Matthew Golden, fast yes, but very much a development project with a low floor, explosive could really pay off, but I'd rather wait, and just try to fix the lines further, DB, and RB.

I will say I was super alarmed to hear some Houston insider say that Laremy is a mega slacker, and notorious for just getting by on mega elite talent. Hope that isn't true, but the story was he really can't be bothered much with the, if memory serves, pratice/gym side of things in terms of intensity. Hope that isn't true.

Anyway, I just hope Peters is looking more '25-'28, then just '25-'26. I think he is, and is just working under the idea that currently he can spend big, later, he'll need to rely on draft picks (as in '27, '28 and beyond). I'll be much more alarmed if he starts trading draft capital from '27, '28, and '29. I can live with trading out to a degree of '25 and '26.

[The Consigliere]

@The Consigliere

Had the same issue. I wrote a long take on these RBs last week but got logged out and it went away so had to summarize it all.

As for Skattebo, if we are going to live and die with his 40, what about his explosion score? 39.5 was almost tops in his class. Is that meaningless? If he wasn't such a weapon out of the backfield, I'd be less interested. But yeah I do think that indeed a RB's will to break tackles accompanied by outstanding contact balance translates. He did it against Texas which arguably has the best defense in college last year, their defense was all about stopping him, yet they couldn't do it.

Have you watched Kaleb Johnson or are you just reading his combine numbers?

Kaleb was a much better back in college than Robinson was. Among other things, Robinson at Alabama with a pedestrian 5 YPC, and a below average 3.3 yards after contact. Kaleb 6.4 per carry, 4.42 yards after contact. And if you watch him, it looks it, when he breaks to that 2nd level, he's hard to catch.

RBs aren't all about of course who is the faster in the track meet. If it were Tuten and Jayden Blue would be going in the first round. Contact balance, vision, agility, stop and go. So many variables. I think it was Josh Norris who if I recall you follow who said that the RAS scores for RB is one of the most meaningless among the positions.

Here are some scouts on him

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-6-rb-ra ... eing-and-a
4. KALEB JOHNSON, Iowa (6-1, 234, 4.56, 2-3): Third-year junior. Set a freshman record at Iowa with 779 yards rushing. “Lot of explosive runs of 25-plus yards,” one scout said. “Had a few that were 50-plus. Has a burst to run stretch and get downhill. Is able to exploit inside run lanes. Shows good patience for (following) blockers. Capable of running behind his pads and showing leg drive and contact balance.

You are thinking all I care about is 40 score. That's not all I care about at all, I just need RB's to be within a threshold, if they are, it's good news, if they are higher to the top end, particularly 4.49 or below, its on average a lot better news. Its not everything, it's just that virtually all hits (and I mean virtually all) historically are 4.65 or below, and the closer you trend towards 4.65, especially 4.6's the worse it is. That's the degree I care about it. I don't really concern myself with it so long as they within that 4.2ish Chris Johnson area, and 4.65 uh oh, Samaje Perine type area. If they are, good, if they aren't, to hit they'll have to be an exceptional outlier.

On Skattebo, I actually did reference that in my original post, over at player profiler, his explosion score is 89th percentile, and is probably one of the weirdest discrepancies in any RB profile (typically you do see some swings at burst or agility, but swings from single digit scores, to nearly 90th percentile in another trait are rare, and Skattebo has a swing nearly that wild (its basically 70 percentile points or nearly so). That could explain how he is able to succeed even w/a more blah speed, could also suggest at either second gear in the open field, or explosive power to break through holes but simply later get caught. Definitely makes him interesting is part of the reason for my ajar door.

As for Kaleb, yeah, I've watched him, I tend to be a bit sketched out with regards to Wisconsin and Iowa RB's over the years in general, other than the TE factory angle with Iowa, I'm pretty skeptical. With Kaleb, he's adequate in his athletic profile, but I am concerned he didn't really impact things until he was 21. Otoh, Hampton did little, same with Jeanty (although Trey and Judkins were awesome as freshman) so I could be a bit unfair there. I can be talked into him a more, my analysis may be a bit too surface level with him. I'll dig deep more over the next 6 weeks with rookie drafts starting for me in June .

[The Consigliere]

Skattebo = a more physical Austin Ekeler. He's got top notch quickness, creativity, balance, patience, and vision, but a much more rugged build than Ekeler. This dude is our juiciest mid round opportunity for a do it all workhorse stud back.

Anyone know which running backs we've actually met with? Just Kaleb Johnson?

We know we need a zone running back and that Robinson isn't it. The scheme narrows down the list and, IMO, Johnson and Skattebo are exactly the kind of zone runners we're shopping for. Skattebo will be there when our pick finally comes around in the middle of the draft, Johnson might not be there when we pick in the 60s.

Ekeler is orders of magnitude more athletic (4.48 40, 96th percentile explosion/burst score, 87th percentile agility). He was an athletic freak, who got lost because he went to a directional school nobody ever heard of. I can't even find stats.

One thing I always used to ask over at ES, and never really got an answer was how often we actually drafted guys we interviewed. I have no idea, but I never picked up on any idea that whatever players we did draft, typically were also interviewed (even if obviously, we cant draft everyone we interview). Never got the sense that it was inherently associated with interests in using draft capital. I wonder if its more associated with a mix of desired targets, and/or finding out if red flags on mental make up and other associated traits make sense or not).

[skinsinparadise]

@The Consigliere

Had the same issue. I wrote a long take on these RBs last week but got logged out and it went away so had to summarize it all.

As for Skattebo, if we are going to live and die with his 40, what about his explosion score? 39.5 was almost tops in his class. Is that meaningless? If he wasn't such a weapon out of the backfield, I'd be less interested. But yeah I do think that indeed a RB's will to break tackles accompanied by outstanding contact balance translates. He did it against Texas which arguably has the best defense in college last year, their defense was all about stopping him, yet they couldn't do it.

Have you watched Kaleb Johnson or are you just reading his combine numbers?

Kaleb was a much better back in college than Robinson was. Among other things, Robinson at Alabama with a pedestrian 5 YPC, and a below average 3.3 yards after contact. Kaleb 6.4 per carry, 4.42 yards after contact. And if you watch him, it looks it, when he breaks to that 2nd level, he's hard to catch.

RBs aren't all about of course who is the faster in the track meet. If it were Tuten and Jayden Blue would be going in the first round. Contact balance, vision, agility, stop and go. So many variables. I think it was Josh Norris who if I recall you follow who said that the RAS scores for RB is one of the most meaningless among the positions.

Even though he's a smaller dude than Robinson, Jordan James strikes me as a rich man's

Here are some scouts on him

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-6-rb-ra ... eing-and-a
4. KALEB JOHNSON, Iowa (6-1, 234, 4.56, 2-3): Third-year junior. Set a freshman record at Iowa with 779 yards rushing. “Lot of explosive runs of 25-plus yards,” one scout said. “Had a few that were 50-plus. Has a burst to run stretch and get downhill. Is able to exploit inside run lanes. Shows good patience for (following) blockers. Capable of running behind his pads and showing leg drive and contact balance.

You are thinking all I care about is 40 score. That's not all I care about at all, I just need RB's to be within a threshold, if they are, it's good news, if they are higher to the top end, particularly 4.49 or below, its on average a lot better news. Its not everything, it's just that virtually all hits (and I mean virtually all) historically are 4.65 or below, and the closer you trend towards 4.65, especially 4.6's the worse it is. That's the degree I care about it. I don't really concern myself with it so long as they within that 4.2ish Chris Johnson area, and 4.65 uh oh, Samaje Perine type area. If they are, good, if they aren't, to hit they'll have to be an exceptional outlier.

On Skattebo, I actually did reference that in my original post, over at player profiler, his explosion score is 89th percentile, and is probably one of the weirdest discrepancies in any RB profile (typically you do see some swings at burst or agility, but swings from single digit scores, to nearly 90th percentile in another trait are rare, and Skattebo has a swing nearly that wild (its basically 70 percentile points or nearly so). That could explain how he is able to succeed even w/a more blah speed, could also suggest at either second gear in the open field, or explosive power to break through holes but simply later get caught. Definitely makes him interesting is part of the reason for my ajar door.

As for Kaleb, yeah, I've watched him, I tend to be a bit sketched out with regards to Wisconsin and Iowa RB's over the years in general, other than the TE factory angle with Iowa, I'm pretty skeptical. With Kaleb, he's adequate in his athletic profile, but I am concerned he didn't really impact things until he was 21. Otoh, Hampton did little, same with Jeanty (although Trey and Judkins were awesome as freshman) so I could be a bit unfair there. I can be talked into him a more, my analysis may be a bit too surface level with him. I'll dig deep more over the next 6 weeks with rookie drafts starting for me in June .

You've watched Kaleb yet your comp is Robinson? The only similarity is their size and their 40 time. Their styles are quite different including what they major in as runners. And even if that doesn't register with you while watching them -- their stats indicate those same major differences. That's why i asked if you are just looking at the 40 time. Because while watching them, Brian Robinson doesn't come to my mind. But if I was just looking at their size and 40 time, Brian would run naturally through my mind.

Among other things, Kalen was #1 in this class when going against light boxes, 10.2 YPC in that context, beating Henderson and Jeanty. Exploiting light boxes better than speedy backs, does that strike you very Brian Robinsonish? Give Robinson a light box and he will outdo Barkley or whomever in the NFL. That would be outright silly. Robinson is mostly a run between the tackles runner, gap, inside zone. Johnson is outsize zone. I can go on. Very different flavors of runners.

Robinson even though he is a big dude had one of the worst break tackle numbers in college. Kaleb with one of the best. They are different players with different strengths and weaknesses.

If I had to pick a RB who reminds me stylistically of Robinson, probably it would be Jordan James. Different size. But he's a good gap runner who is a consistent singles hitter. He's not going to break away often for a longish run. He gets caught (Kalen often doesn't get caught quickly) quickly once he gets to that next level.

Like Robinson, he can break a tackle or two but isn't that hot at breaking tackles in open space. I think though he's better than Robinson becuase he brings more consistent physicality to his runs and can get skinny in the hole to get the tough yards a bit better and more consistently than Robinson. But their style has a similar flavor IMO.