Draft thread

[skinsinparadise]

I also noticed Keim has brought up Derrick Harmon now twice in recent podcasts in the context of a hypothetical. Keim's hypothetical examples of players usually have meaning. If so, I said this early on, Harmon would be a great get. I know its DT. But its a position we can always use more.


It's a rotational spot. Newton hopefully takes it a step up this season. He had an excuse clearly because of his injuries.

Payne seems like has leveled off as an overpaid B level player -- but hopefully in a season where his contract is on the line he picks it up. Payne wasn't shy the previous time his contract was up to make it clear that money was a motivator. They can release him ala Jonathan Allen next year with little consequence. And Kinlaw is still a projection, as to whether he finally puts it together.

Harmon is a disrutpive player.

[skinsinparadise]

I think I've settled on DJ Giddens and Skattebo as my third round RB draft crushes. Skattebo has gotten enough play here as to why.

Giddens IMO is somewhat underrated in this class. IMO he's up there with Kaleb and Judkins as prospects.

He has one of the best % of explosive runs in this class. He killed the combine as to showcasing his athleticism. He's a fun watch, stop and go abiity, elusive and fast.

Him and Brashard Smith and Tuten are the guys my analytics dynasty dudes are trying to collect in rookie drafts before the actual draft (sampson too). The view seems to be: Excellent athlete, great profile, cheap in draft capital cost to acquire. They've steered me towards a lot of sneaky great values over the years, some I got (like Aaron Jones, Kamara, both of the Bucs guys (Irving and White before him), Hubbard, Chase Brown, Ekeler, Pacheco, they told me take McCaffrey over Fournette in '17, take Chubb after Barkley in '18, steered me wrong in '19 with Miles, but were back on track with Jonathan Taylor as a top 3 RB of the past decade in '20, and CEH was fools gold, had '21 right (Etienne over Najee), had '22 right (Breece is as good as any rb around and Walker is too, had Gibbs ranked more or less even with Bijan etc)....Now they really like Smith, Tuten and Giddens as dart throws late....so I'm doing my due diligence, but I've been listening to these guys since the winter of '15/'16, and they nearly always steer me right, and when they don't, they are Bayesians, they don't suffer take lock if they are wrong....

Brashard Smith and to a degree Blue are pass catching burners with upside. Too bad Blue can't hold the football, he has a severe fumble problem.

Speaking of analytics, I gather you are down on Skattebo. His biggest fans ironically seem to be PFF, which ranks him as their #3 back. He jumps in a number of the metric categores. Sharp isn't as high on him as PFF but his metrics had him rated fairly high.

[The Consigliere]

I actually don't think RB age matters that much if you're only expecting to get a rookie contract out of them anyway. If I'm only getting four years, I'm fine with it being ages 24-27. The literal prime years. Then you just toss them in the garbage heap and recycle. Four good years out of a RB taken in round 4 or later is fine value.

Prime years for RB's are typically 21-26, and usually the lower in that range the better, period.

The one sort of X off prospect amongst the top 10 guys is Harvey. He's just too old period. I'm not taking a guy who hits the age cliff in year 3 of his contract (and essentially a month after his second season is completed unless we play in the super bowl in which case its that same month).

Evidence with RB's is that you capture their best years 21-26, and the best of the best are typically if memory serves 22-25.

With most WR's, that age range slippage starts to hit around age 28. With WR's they have found that amongst most of the elite WR's, their best productive years can continue into their early thirties, doesn't appear to be true with RB's though.

For me, ideally, I want a RB age 21. I can deal with 22. I don't want a 23 year old, and there's zero chance I'm interested in a 24 year old.

Indeed, the rookie contract typically captures all or all but one of the best years a RB produces, on average, and thats one of the reasons I kinda like the idea of trading up into the late 1st, to use a 5th year rookie option so we can cut bait after that. No such RB exists in this class that is worth such a move (unless Hampton drops to our pick which I'm highly skeptical of), but as an example, and guys I wanted: Dalvin Cook and and Joe Mixon all warranted this in the '17 class, Nick Chubb in '18, Jonathan Taylor and D'Andre Swift (whoops) in '20, Hall and Walker in '22 etc.

It's the ideal move, if they hit as expected, you tend to capture their age 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25 seasons or 22-26, which the odds say will be all of their best and most productive seasons. Indeed the '24 FA RB class was the first I can recall that hit at such a rare level, and probably the biggest reason why is that nearly all of them were from the loaded '17 class, along with Henry from '16, and Barkley from the loaded '18 class. Guys from future FA classes that are potentially worth targeting? To me, Etienne, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker, but I'd rather just find our guy in the draft since we are going to be cap crunched, and I don't want RB eating a bunch of cap. But if we can't get a preferred RB, yeah I'd trade for Hall and failing that, Walker.

[skinsinparadise]

They are meeting with Blue this week. He's almost as dangerous as B. Smith in the passing game. Home run hitter. Stinks in pass protect, fumbles a lot. So things would need to be cleaned up but he can hit those home runs and is dangerous in space.

[skinsinparadise]

I actually don't think RB age matters that much if you're only expecting to get a rookie contract out of them anyway. If I'm only getting four years, I'm fine with it being ages 24-27. The literal prime years. Then you just toss them in the garbage heap and recycle. Four good years out of a RB taken in round 4 or later is fine value.

Prime years for RB's are typically 21-26, and usually the lower in that range the better, period.

The one sort of X off prospect amongst the top 10 guys is Harvey. He's just too old period. I'm not taking a guy who hits the age cliff in year 3 of his contract (and essentially a month after his second season is completed unless we play in the super bowl in which case its that same month).

Evidence with RB's is that you capture their best years 21-26, and the best of the best are typically if memory serves 22-25.

With most WR's, that age range slippage starts to hit around age 28. With WR's they have found that amongst most of the elite WR's, their best productive years can continue into their early thirties, doesn't appear to be true with RB's though.

For me, ideally, I want a RB age 21. I can deal with 22. I don't want a 23 year old, and there's zero chance I'm interested in a 24 year old.

Indeed, the rookie contract typically captures all or all but one of the best years a RB produces, on average, and thats one of the reasons I kinda like the idea of trading up into the late 1st, to use a 5th year rookie option so we can cut bait after that. No such RB exists in this class that is worth such a move (unless Hampton drops to our pick which I'm highly skeptical of), but as an example, and guys I wanted: Dalvin Cook and and Joe Mixon all warranted this in the '17 class, Nick Chubb in '18, Jonathan Taylor and D'Andre Swift (whoops) in '20, Hall and Walker in '22 etc.

It's the ideal move, if they hit as expected, you tend to capture their age 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25 seasons or 22-26, which the odds say will be all of their best and most productive seasons. Indeed the '24 FA RB class was the first I can recall that hit at such a rare level, and probably the biggest reason why is that nearly all of them were from the loaded '17 class, along with Henry from '16, and Barkley from the loaded '18 class. Guys from future FA classes that are potentially worth targeting? To me, Etienne, Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker, but I'd rather just find our guy in the draft since we are going to be cap crunched, and I don't want RB eating a bunch of cap. But if we can't get a preferred RB, yeah I'd trade for Hall and failing that, Walker.

PFf guys also love them some RJ Harvey. I bring them up since I know you are mostly about the analytics. I think we got to look at this team not same old same old (no pun intended). But with the lense of winning the SB in the next two years.

And everything is not cut the same. Context is king. Lets say Harvey drops to the late 4th, and he's by far their top RB on their board. You take him if you are looking for a RB at that spot. I know we are accustomed to thinking about hey maybe in 3 years if this or that happens. But IMO we are smack in the window now. Not 2028. Now. So lets say Harvey kills it this year or next and helps win a SB -- I can care less if he's done after that.

In the past, we were building up to the wedding as to the team. We were dating. The wedding was far off. Everything was about what happens later in theory. Now, we are married. I get it came out of nowhere and its not easy to adjust to the 180 or heck maybe even believe it because it happened so unexpectedly and fast. But it did happen and IMO we got to change the mindset.

We are used to all the coaches (sans Gibbs) here speaking of success as some far off future thing. Each coach seem to be selling a 5 year rebuild. Shanny and Rivera flat out said it. Jay not so much to his credit. But the future always seemed later. The feast was years down the road -- not today. But now we are at the buffett --and we can eat.

Said more simply, if you gave me an option A of a B plus level RB that helps win a SB in the next two seasons and then flames out. Or option B, a B level RB, who doesn't help win a SB and we end up short but heck we got 5 seasons out of him. I'll take option A. But if I thought this team was same old same old, I'd want option B.

[skinsinparadise]

[Conn]

Yep:

[skinsinparadise]

Washington Commanders
Picks: Nos. 29, 61, 128, 205, 245

No team should approach the draft more aggressively than the Commanders. They've already started this process, selling picks to acquire veteran wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Once you make the NFC Championship Game in your rookie quarterback's first season as a pro, you commit. Get the chips to the middle of the table. Trade up. Swing for the stars.

...If a highly rated receiver, offensive lineman or defensive tackle does fall into the Commanders' lap, they should leap at the chance. Again: Adding high-impact, immediate contributors is the name of the game here. Trade up for falling players and take risks on guys with red flags on their eval -- the sort of players who would have gone a round higher if not for injury history or poor production. Draft players you can envision starting -- and mattering -- in January football.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insi ... ions-needs

[Warhead36]

I also noticed Keim has brought up Derrick Harmon now twice in recent podcasts in the context of a hypothetical. Keim's hypothetical examples of players usually have meaning. If so, I said this early on, Harmon would be a great get. I know its DT. But its a position we can always use more.


It's a rotational spot. Newton hopefully takes it a step up this season. He had an excuse clearly because of his injuries.

Payne seems like has leveled off as an overpaid B level player -- but hopefully in a season where his contract is on the line he picks it up. Payne wasn't shy the previous time his contract was up to make it clear that money was a motivator. They can release him ala Jonathan Allen next year with little consequence. And Kinlaw is still a projection, as to whether he finally puts it together.

Harmon is a disrutpive player.

Yeah Harmon would almost assuredly be BAP if he were there at 29. Perhaps someone would be willing to give up a decent haul to trade up for him, but if not, I don't hate that pick either. You can run some crazy lineups with Payne/Kinlaw/Newton/Harmon. If you can't stop the run with that front then you're never stopping the run.

[skinsinparadise]

As I've been stating, I'd be jazzed if they took Kaleb. I am not obsessed with the combine, especially for running backs, as to judging their future success. This dude is a fun watch.