Draft thread

[The Consigliere]

@GoingCommando

If you got some time, can you take a look at Tyler Booker? I watched one game and I'll dive in some more. But you came at the O lineman sometimes more cynically than I do -- in a good way which I think helps with this evaluation.

I know the anayltic types don't like the dude mainly because of his bad RAS score. So he would drive someone like @The Consigliere crazy.

But in the game I watched, he anchored really well. He has tackle sized arms, supersized hands -- he actually played some LT. I think the idea with him is he would be a wall in pass protect at LT especially against big DTs like Dexter Lawrence.

Balance issues. And doesn't have the footspeed to motor to that 2nd level. But does maul guys at times and sustain blocks well IMO. I think his superpower is using his girth -- size, hands, arms to envelop opponents. Run game -- gap scheme.

As a dude, he's Terry like off the charts. Leader on steroids. Talks the talk. A plus character.

I am bringing him up because Keim has made it crystal clear that this team is interested if he falls to them. The rumor is the Texans take him before our pick.

Thon is usually pretty good at O line evaluations

I know RAS scores, but I've never seen a comprehensive write up on any kind of correlation of RAS with hit rates, has anyone ever produced it? I know, generally speaking, Good RAS scores are better than bad ones, but I have no idea how often they've been associated with future success, I know basically what's been linked for playmaking positions and that's it (QB, RB, WR, TE), I know CB in particular it seems to be important, but generally speaking, w/o any casual link articles I've seen from anyone, I have no idea if they are important. I mean, I've mentioned it before, but I think it was Scott Barrett who did a deep dive into athletic scores with WR's and found what was already known (that speed isn't that much of a big deal as long as you're within an acceptable range) and what wasn't (that WR's with crappier bench presses have a higher hit rate than those with more impressive ones, illustrating that BP is largely irrelevant).

So I'm not gonna be cranky about RAS, especially in terms of the line, where i think explosion, play strength, flexibility, reach, mechanics, stuff like that definitely seems much more important. So, no, I'm not likely to get on my high horse about RAS until I know more, and even then, maybe what I learn means who gives a ---- so to speak?

[The Consigliere]

Here is my "rankings" if you will for what I want at #29(only realistic so obviously I'm not gonna list guys like Jeanty or Hunter. Basically at every position(not gonna list QB because obviously we're not gonna take one at 29) I'm going to list guys that I:

Like-I'd be somewhere between happy and ecstatic if we got em
Meh-I would be okay with the pick but not really overwhelmed
Pass-Do not want under any circumstance

RB:

Like-Omarion Hampton
Meh-Treveyon Henderson (I like the player but not at 29, if we move down a few spots and get him I'd be thrilled)

WR:

Like-Emeka Ogbuka
Meh-Matthew Golden (closer to Like than Pass but he probably won't be available anyway)
Pass-Luther Burden (Jahan Dotson 2.0 with the lack of competitiveness)

TE:

None since Warren and Loveland won't be available

OT:

Like-None
Meh-Josh Simmons, Josh Connerly

IOL:

Like-None
Meh-Grey Zebel
Pass-Tyler Booker (power guy but can't move so not a scheme fit)

DE/Edge:

Like-Donovan Ezeiraku, Mike Green(assuming the sexual assaults aren't a thing anymore), Landon Jackson (although might be a bit of a reach at 29)
Meh-Everyone else except see below
Pass-James Pearce jr (not a culture/personality fit)

LB:

Like-Jihad Campbell (not likely to be available at 29 though)
Pass-Everyone else (no other LB prospects are first round caliber)

CB:

Like-Will Johnson (I can't actually see him dropping but there are talks he could fall), Jahdae Barron (same as Johnson but its a weird CB class), Shavon Revel (feels like a bit of a reach at 29 though)
Meh-None
Pass-Benjamin Morrison (TWO hip surgeries, he's dunzo)

S:

Like-Malaki Starks (feels a bit high at 29 though)
Meh-Xavier Watts (like the player, but a big reach at 29, would LOVE him in the 2nd)
Pass-Nick Emmanwori (workout warrior, has bad tape and has atrocious football IQ/instinct)

Sounds like a trade down, which I'd agree with. I would also be fine w/not receiving equal comp, we need picks, and I'm willing to give a 10-20% discount on draft capital value to accrue more dart throws on day 2 or 3.

[The Consigliere]

Judging by Keim's latest podcast, feels like he might be talking about Mike Green here. They seem Ok i gather with what they found out when they probed about him. Conversely, it seems to not to be the case with Pearce.

Keim has made it clear that they'd likely pounce on Green if he fell but it seems like almost no chance he does to 29.

Green vs Pearce is crazy. Teams would rather have the two time sexual assaulter in Green because by all counts on the field and in the practice facility/locker room he's an absolute stud and extremely hard worker, coachable, etc. Off the field he might be an absolute piece of garbage though. On the flip side, Pearce may not be a bad kid but apparently his teammates and coaches despise him, he takes plays off, lacks competitive fire etc.

I could absolutely see a scenario where our FO and many others would much rather have Green and just kinda hope he stops being a rapist.

To me you write off both because....
#1 With Green, suspension risk and losing all value is there. Tyreek Hill has been lucky he's played a down in this league, and this has been known for a decade. The risk of a guy who can't get his ---- together at 18-20, continuing to suffer the same problem into their mid 20's is high. STRAIGHT PASS. Now if the stories aren't true period, then keep him on your board. That's where you have people digging into their background full bore like some of the teams did on Blackmon (who was caught drunk all over the place by some cross checker types from at least one team and probably more)

#2: Mental Make up is Mental Make up. If a Pearce is really that bad, you have to pass.

It's pretty simple.

Where it gets weird is like the Penn State kid Parsons, who had a lot of negative stuff spreading, that apparently wasn't true? Whereas with RGIII, it sounds like the stuff that was discounted was kind of true (prima donna, not a leader etc).

Anyway, I have my background guys check both these guys out and if the stories are true, you pull them off your board, period.

[skinsinparadise]

@GoingCommando

If you got some time, can you take a look at Tyler Booker? I watched one game and I'll dive in some more. But you came at the O lineman sometimes more cynically than I do -- in a good way which I think helps with this evaluation.

I know the anayltic types don't like the dude mainly because of his bad RAS score. So he would drive someone like @The Consigliere crazy.

But in the game I watched, he anchored really well. He has tackle sized arms, supersized hands -- he actually played some LT. I think the idea with him is he would be a wall in pass protect at LT especially against big DTs like Dexter Lawrence.

Balance issues. And doesn't have the footspeed to motor to that 2nd level. But does maul guys at times and sustain blocks well IMO. I think his superpower is using his girth -- size, hands, arms to envelop opponents. Run game -- gap scheme.

As a dude, he's Terry like off the charts. Leader on steroids. Talks the talk. A plus character.

I am bringing him up because Keim has made it crystal clear that this team is interested if he falls to them. The rumor is the Texans take him before our pick.

Thon is usually pretty good at O line evaluations

I know RAS scores, but I've never seen a comprehensive write up on any kind of correlation of RAS with hit rates, has anyone ever produced it? I know, generally speaking, Good RAS scores are better than bad ones, but I have no idea how often they've been associated with future success, I know basically what's been linked for playmaking positions and that's it (QB, RB, WR, TE), I know CB in particular it seems to be important, but generally speaking, w/o any casual link articles I've seen from anyone, I have no idea if they are important. I mean, I've mentioned it before, but I think it was Scott Barrett who did a deep dive into athletic scores with WR's and found what was already known (that speed isn't that much of a big deal as long as you're within an acceptable range) and what wasn't (that WR's with crappier bench presses have a higher hit rate than those with more impressive ones, illustrating that BP is largely irrelevant).

So I'm not gonna be cranky about RAS, especially in terms of the line, where i think explosion, play strength, flexibility, reach, mechanics, stuff like that definitely seems much more important. So, no, I'm not likely to get on my high horse about RAS until I know more, and even then, maybe what I learn means who gives a ---- so to speak?

The RAS scores seem to have a better correlation with CB and big boy positions, O line and D line. Less so with skilled positions.

Booker is a bit of an enigma to me but i do like what I've digested. If I just go with trust my eyes and don't think too hard. He's stout in pass protect. A gap run blocker, not a 2nd level guy. But with those long arms and massive hands, he's hard to get through. Swallows players, and sustain blocks well. He gave up 0 sacks and few pressures last year.

But for a big man he's not a good athlete. He's not a dude like Cosmi who hits that 2nd level. His balance isn't hot. But on the aggregate i liked what I've seen.

He also hits that Terry category of through the roof accoladaes about his character and leadership. Again, its not about throwaway comments like hey he's a good dude and boiler plate narratives that are a dime a dozen. They talk him up as arguably the best leader and culture setter in this draft class with Egbuka being the runner up.

So yeah you can't quantify leadership. And it doesn't matter of course if he's a leader yet the player sucks. But if the player is good AND brings much to the locker room that seems to matter to this FO. I heard a million times that this team's players were super tight and the locker room was special. He's the type of dude who adds to that culture and in a big way.

[Warhead36]

Judging by Keim's latest podcast, feels like he might be talking about Mike Green here. They seem Ok i gather with what they found out when they probed about him. Conversely, it seems to not to be the case with Pearce.

Keim has made it clear that they'd likely pounce on Green if he fell but it seems like almost no chance he does to 29.

Green vs Pearce is crazy. Teams would rather have the two time sexual assaulter in Green because by all counts on the field and in the practice facility/locker room he's an absolute stud and extremely hard worker, coachable, etc. Off the field he might be an absolute piece of garbage though. On the flip side, Pearce may not be a bad kid but apparently his teammates and coaches despise him, he takes plays off, lacks competitive fire etc.

I could absolutely see a scenario where our FO and many others would much rather have Green and just kinda hope he stops being a rapist.

To me you write off both because....
#1 With Green, suspension risk and losing all value is there. Tyreek Hill has been lucky he's played a down in this league, and this has been known for a decade. The risk of a guy who can't get his ---- together at 18-20, continuing to suffer the same problem into their mid 20's is high. STRAIGHT PASS. Now if the stories aren't true period, then keep him on your board. That's where you have people digging into their background full bore like some of the teams did on Blackmon (who was caught drunk all over the place by some cross checker types from at least one team and probably more)

#2: Mental Make up is Mental Make up. If a Pearce is really that bad, you have to pass.

It's pretty simple.

Where it gets weird is like the Penn State kid Parsons, who had a lot of negative stuff spreading, that apparently wasn't true? Whereas with RGIII, it sounds like the stuff that was discounted was kind of true (prima donna, not a leader etc).

Anyway, I have my background guys check both these guys out and if the stories are true, you pull them off your board, period.

Yeah that's why you have to really trust your scouts who are doing the dirty work talking to people etc.

Reg. Parsons, his only issue was that he and some teammates hazed a teammate. Which is kinda just whatever. Even Peyton Manning pulled crap like that. He also got into a fight in HS because some racist dropped the N word. He was never the problem child anyone thought he was.

Adam Peters himself said in his PC yesterday that you have to be careful because there is a lotta misinformation and some situations are just misunderstood and talked about how they drafted a guy in San Fran who apparently had character problems and has been a model citizen (I'm curious who he's referring to).

The Green stuff is scary because he has been accused of sexual assault twice in two different places. One time might be a misunderstanding, girl trying to frame him, etc. But TWICE? That's a pattern. You have to really really trust your scouts on that one.

Pearce is off my board completely. Just too much chatter out there about him being a complete disaster of a teammate, not coachable etc. If we take him its because we really trust guys like Luvu and Wagner etc. to keep him in line. Maybe our culture just turns him into a winner.

Egbuka is probably the safest bet at 29. I still want more WR talent and his floor is really high. He'll never be an A1 hot sauce WR but he'll have a solid 7-10 year career consistently putting up ~800 yards and ~5 TDs with maybe the occasional 1000/7. Think Tyler Lockett. Would you take a WR at 29 if you were guaranteed Tyler Lockett's career?

I like Ezeiraku too but he's basically a situational pass rusher. Too small to be a full time Edge unless we're gonna run some kinda hybrid 3-4 type front. But he fits the mold of a DQ Edge. Donovan Jackson is a more traditional DE and he has incredible size and length and would resolve our setting the edge against the run issues but he's not likely to ever be a double digit sack guy(probably ceiling of like 8 ish sacks).

[Jumbo]

I just really like everything about this guy, but especially where his head and character seem to be. His family seems like great people who raised a great guy and his talent is obviously high level.

I know there's need to factor in and I'm a bit biased in terms of defensing the pass (of course there's saquan ) but I'd love to have this guy on my team.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/malaki-st ... be1fb506bf

[skinsinparadise]

I just really like everything about this guy, but especially where his head and character seem to be. His family seems like great people who raised a great guy and his talent is obviously high level.

I know there's need to factor in and I'm a bit biased in terms of defensing the pass (of course there's saquan ) but I'd love to have this guy on my team.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/malaki-st ... be1fb506bf

Yeah Starks would be the other guy for me as to pure character, smarts, leadership along with Booker and Egbuka and maybe Barron.

I want to love Starks. My issue with Starks is the 2 games i watched, he wasn't a difference maker, didn't jump out. I recall one of those games was Texas. He looked solid. Good nose for the ball. But also got beat, missed tackles.

However, I need to watch more. Sometimes if you watch the wrong games or not enough of them you miss the full picture.

I can see him as some suspect going to the 2nd. I like the value there.

[The Consigliere]

Green vs Pearce is crazy. Teams would rather have the two time sexual assaulter in Green because by all counts on the field and in the practice facility/locker room he's an absolute stud and extremely hard worker, coachable, etc. Off the field he might be an absolute piece of garbage though. On the flip side, Pearce may not be a bad kid but apparently his teammates and coaches despise him, he takes plays off, lacks competitive fire etc.

I could absolutely see a scenario where our FO and many others would much rather have Green and just kinda hope he stops being a rapist.

To me you write off both because....
#1 With Green, suspension risk and losing all value is there. Tyreek Hill has been lucky he's played a down in this league, and this has been known for a decade. The risk of a guy who can't get his ---- together at 18-20, continuing to suffer the same problem into their mid 20's is high. STRAIGHT PASS. Now if the stories aren't true period, then keep him on your board. That's where you have people digging into their background full bore like some of the teams did on Blackmon (who was caught drunk all over the place by some cross checker types from at least one team and probably more)

#2: Mental Make up is Mental Make up. If a Pearce is really that bad, you have to pass.

It's pretty simple.

Where it gets weird is like the Penn State kid Parsons, who had a lot of negative stuff spreading, that apparently wasn't true? Whereas with RGIII, it sounds like the stuff that was discounted was kind of true (prima donna, not a leader etc).

Anyway, I have my background guys check both these guys out and if the stories are true, you pull them off your board, period.

Yeah that's why you have to really trust your scouts who are doing the dirty work talking to people etc.

Reg. Parsons, his only issue was that he and some teammates hazed a teammate. Which is kinda just whatever. Even Peyton Manning pulled crap like that. He also got into a fight in HS because some racist dropped the N word. He was never the problem child anyone thought he was.

Adam Peters himself said in his PC yesterday that you have to be careful because there is a lotta misinformation and some situations are just misunderstood and talked about how they drafted a guy in San Fran who apparently had character problems and has been a model citizen (I'm curious who he's referring to).

The Green stuff is scary because he has been accused of sexual assault twice in two different places. One time might be a misunderstanding, girl trying to frame him, etc. But TWICE? That's a pattern. You have to really really trust your scouts on that one.

Pearce is off my board completely. Just too much chatter out there about him being a complete disaster of a teammate, not coachable etc. If we take him its because we really trust guys like Luvu and Wagner etc. to keep him in line. Maybe our culture just turns him into a winner.

Egbuka is probably the safest bet at 29. I still want more WR talent and his floor is really high. He'll never be an A1 hot sauce WR but he'll have a solid 7-10 year career consistently putting up ~800 yards and ~5 TDs with maybe the occasional 1000/7. Think Tyler Lockett. Would you take a WR at 29 if you were guaranteed Tyler Lockett's career?

I like Ezeiraku too but he's basically a situational pass rusher. Too small to be a full time Edge unless we're gonna run some kinda hybrid 3-4 type front. But he fits the mold of a DQ Edge. Donovan Jackson is a more traditional DE and he has incredible size and length and would resolve our setting the edge against the run issues but he's not likely to ever be a double digit sack guy(probably ceiling of like 8 ish sacks).

The main reason I wouldn't draft Egbuka is pretty simple. I just have zero belief he's ever going to be special, and I also know that a guy with his likely production #'s and ability will simply be let go after his contract wraps and be a reasonably cheap FA addition. Gallup can produce similar #'s to Egbuka, and we got him for peanuts. I just have no interest in that because I think what he can do can be signed in FA for Gallup like deals, and acquired in most non-horror show drafts with low 2nd rounders to low 3rd rounders. I'm not saying he sucks, I think Egbuka would typically sit in the 6th-10th range of any average to good WR class, its just that he is 100% floor bet, and no ceiling. He's gonna get you 55-70 for 800-1050, and he'll do his job, but teams are not going to worry about him ever. If the best we can do with our first is Egbuka, I just would rather trade the pick for a '25 3rd and a '26 first or something like that. Just trade the pick for futures and a day 2 or day 3 pick. I just don't see the value. He's fine, he's not gonna bust, but he's also not gonna matter much either.

To me, if the corner is there, or the edge is there, probably take them, unless a similarly tiered corner or edge can be found 10-15 picks later in which case move down. The only other reason I stay at slot is if Hampton or Jeanty were there and I don't expect them to be.

so my #1: Trade out.

My #2: Draft the best Edge/CB available or Hampton if he falls which he wont.

My #3: Trade the first for a '26 first, and a day 2 pick.

No interest in Egbuka, and I would hate it if we stay at slot and just draft whats there unless it's something special in terms of value.

I will be really shocked if we don't do at least one trade down.

[GoingCommando]

I watched four 2024 games of cutups on Tyler Booker: vs Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU. My take on Booker:

Strengths:
- Good NFL body and physical makeup. Thick lower half and carriers natural bulk without being sloppy or top heavy. Definitely has the body to start as a rookie.
- Good arm length. Extension on pass blocks looks really good. Good recovery length when something slows his feet.
- Lots of power in his hands. Punch is brutal and he almost never falls off blocks after latching on.
- Solid anchor in pass pro. Not dominant, but good, and NFL ready.
- High end balance and coordination. Rarely on the ground, even in really tight traffic with a QB-centric run game that routinely speeds up the clock on blocks.
- Good flexibility. Doesn't do a ton of lunging but he's got snaps where he gets lazy and stands up or stops churning his feet.
- Easy mover with outstanding accuracy as a puller and second level climber. Really good eyes for sifting through the trash and finding and getting into position on his targets.
- Very good motor, if not necessarily dominant. Stays on his blocks and doesn't just try and snatch everyone down. Usually looks for work. Great effort on his pulls and move blocks.
- Absolutely love his playing demeanor. This guy is a nasty, salty competitor--reminds me of Cosmi in temperament. Good at getting away with little holds and hits to the head too--knows how to play through whistles and take things to the line without really ever getting flagged. Explosive hitter.
- Drops in pass pro look fine, smooth transition from contact to dropping his anchor. Pretty good technique and seems like an NFL ready skill, but Alabama just barely ever ran a traditional passing offense, so there's not a lot of classic dropback pass pro reps to judge.

Weaknesses:
- Inconsistent snap timing. Late off the line of scrimmage more than you like to see.
- Hands get wide on his punch. Really explosive/elite power NTs can give him problems when they hit him with violent hands. Noticed this on reps with Elijah Simmons in the Tennessee game, as well as with Gio Paez from LSU. These are fireplug nose tackles with brutal hands. But Booker gives as good as he gets with them. Seeing these reps is why I would say his power is good but not elite.
- Can get lazy and stop moving his feet. There is also some lunging, and combined with the inconsistent first step off the snap, this is where my concerns about his motor would be.
- Limited run blocking range outside of the hashes. Not going to be getting to the front of these kinds of blocks, but does create solid cutback lanes on them because he makes contact with alley defenders on outside runs. I also think that Milroe just isn't patient at pacing these runs (Milroe is a burner and he almost always takes early lanes/wins) so some of the limitations in Booker's range might be specific to the Alabama situation.

Questions:
- I wish I could see more smooth, traditional pass blocking reps. Alabama didn't really run this kind of offense except when they were up against the clock and the scoreboard wasn't favorable in the TN game. And Milroe was so terrible at running this kind of passing game--seeing the field and staying on schedule--that the entire offense looked disjointed. You can tell this wasn't in their comfort zone. I think Booker will be fine in a passing game with regular drops, just wish I'd seen it more with him.
- From what I saw, Alabama doesn't really run an NFL style zone blocking run game. They're pretty much pure gap blocking on their traditional runs and most of their QB runs. I really want to see what Booker looks like on outside zone runs.

All in all I loved what I saw in Booker's cut ups. Very very bullish on him as a prospect, and I see value in him at 29. I think he's a year one starter for us at LG, and I think he's got definite Pro-Bowl potential. He's a badass tone setter whose film is unusually fun to watch for an OL. I think he's an elite run blocker and I love the kind of wall we could build in front of our backfield with him, Biadasz, and Cosmi (when he gets back). My gut is that he's the kind of guy that the Eagles or Ravens would pick if they were in position to get him. I like him more than Donovan Jackson and Tate Ratledge, and I think I would put him as IOL1 this year.

I want to include a gif of one of my favorite moments from his cutups. LSU has a super blue chip freshman DL named Dominick McKinley that got away with a hands to the face where he ripped Booker's helmet off. Booker stayed with the block and you could see it pissed him off and he yelled at the ref for missing the call. By rule, he had to sit out the next play and Alabama gets the big conversion on an outside run anyway. He then proceeded to take his revenge on McKinley for the rest of the game, just kicking his ass and making his life miserable. This was my favorite moment of payback that Booker got away with, taking McKinley down and just slamming the dude's head into the ground:


https://imgflip.com/gif/9rp1ie

[The Consigliere]

I just really like everything about this guy, but especially where his head and character seem to be. His family seems like great people who raised a great guy and his talent is obviously high level.

I know there's need to factor in and I'm a bit biased in terms of defensing the pass (of course there's saquan ) but I'd love to have this guy on my team.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/malaki-st ... be1fb506bf

I definitely feel foolish for not looking more at the Safety prospects, have a feeling we might take one and I'll know squat about them.