Draft thread

[mistertim]

Coming in exclusively from a dynasty perspective for the most part.

My objective:
If Hampton is there at 1.29 (he won't be), I'd take him over anything else to settle our RB position. If not I take Judkins or trade down. I fear they want overage Trey Henderson.

In terms of potential WR targets:
Tre Harris
Jaylin Noel.

Not really interested in anyone else, Tet and Burden will be gone before we pick, Egbuka is too limited to be worth the draft capital, Golden is boom bust and I expect him to go in the top 15-25 zone.

TE options:
This draft has some really interesting options, but we took Sinnott last year, and resigned Ertz. With so little draft capital to begin with, even though I like Loveland, Fanin, Arroyo, Ferguson and others to some extent, I wouldn't do it (I don't like Warren, he's gonna go super early, so we can't get him anyway, and he is an OLD prospect, turns 24 after his rookie season supposedly. Yikes, Loveland is a good 2 full years younger.

Consider the RB classes of '26 and '27 are supposed to suck (WR in '27 is supposed to be fabulous), this is the draft to land our next RB, but we've traded away a ton of draft capital:

My targets:
Round 1:
Omarion Hampton
Q. Judkins

Round 2:
I'd trade down rather than take Trey Henderson, I'm not sure Kaleb is athletic enough, we know Skattebo is an interesting guy, but historically you need to tack on an extra .05 to any pro day 40, as they are juiced tracks with stop watches rather than laser times as well (generally), so his # is more likely 4.57-4.63 if he had run in Inday. Which is basically right at the cusp of undraftable alongside Ollie Gordon who looked like a monster in '23, but a slug in '24/'25.

My targets if we miss out on Hampton and Judkins (and I think we will): Go for athleticism with guys like Dylan Sampson, B. Tuten, and DJ Giddens. Trey is athletic enough but old, and may be a committee back at the next level, Skattebo is even older and infinitely less athletic, Kaleb is a real boom bust type, not sure if he's athletic enough, he's a dice role. I have security in Hampton and Judkins who both have the size, and the athleticism, and both are reasonably young, Judkins is fine at 21, Hampton is closer to Trey's age, but he just turned 22, Trey will turn 23 during the season.

I think at the end of the day, I'd work really hard to get Hampton or Judkins, failing that, I'd trade down, and target Tuten, or Giddens, with Sampson as another guy, maybe Kaleb if I was convinced he could do the job. RJ Harvey would be interesting if he wasn't so damn old. Dude is already freaking 24, which takes him off my board entirely.


I have a feeling they'll go after Henderson, who I'd hate selecting, but if we can come out of this draft with Hampton (I think he goes before our first), or Judkins, or Henderson I'd range from ecstatic to accepting, after that it gets a lot harder, with only Kaleb, looking like a reasonably strong bet, and I think I'd rather role the dice on a Giddens or Tuten or Sampson later in the draft, than take Kaleb or Trey in round 2. Will be interesting to see what they do. I'd be utterly stunned if we don't come out of this draft with somebody.

My stay aways, that I'd be really either bummed or disappointed taking:

Henderson (age, and committee issues and draft capital cost). I would have liked him better as a round 2 pick for us last year when he could have come out but inexplicably stayed another year.

Kaleb Johnson: As previously mentioned, his combine was meh, not horrible, but with so many hyperathletic RB's, he got thrown in the hamper with Ollie Gordon. Not really fair, Gordon was much worse, but it is concerning. I can't find any info on Kaleb's performance at his Pro Day or even if he participated. I'm interested as he only ran from what I can tell, at the combine. In fairness to Kaleb, I could probably talk myself into him.

Cam Skattebo: My heart would love this guy, he's basically a local for me, playing with Sac State, just 2 hours from I live, a few years ago. I want the guy to exceed, but he's already notched the "old" issue and he's not terrible "twitchy" as an athlete. His #'s suggest he sits right on the edge of making it, or not, due to the athletic limitations. I'd rather someone else draft him, and just watch from afar, especially a team I don't hate.

It's funny because I know I could talk myself into liking any of these 3 guys, but in the end, these are the guys I'm most scared of that are typically tanked top 7-8 in the RB class.

Ollie Gordon is a weird one, his season in '23 made him looked like a late day 1 or day 2 talent, his '24 and combine (i cant believe his agents let him run) make him seem like an undrafted free agent level talent (though he'll get drafted by somebody).

We'll see. Suffice it to say, I'll be totally shocked if we don't take one of the top 10-12 guys at the position in this draft. The need is quite stark, and with the '26 and '27 class looking disappointing, we have to address it, particularly considering that Brian Robinson hits the age cliff this year. Yikes.

I watched a little bit of Judkins during the season, and I've watched more of each RB as the draft is coming up, and I just don't really see what other see, I guess. To me he looks like a slightly upgraded BRob. Sure, he'll be a workhorse and is pretty big and durable, but from what I've seen he's not a gamebreaker, he has ok but not great vision, and while he's a powerful north-south runner, he's not especially shifty and his lateral agility is just decent. I think he'll be good if he's behind a good OL, but probably not much more than average if he's behind a lesser OL.

[The Consigliere]

I watched a little bit of Judkins during the season, and I've watched more of each RB as the draft is coming up, and I just don't really see what other see, I guess. To me he looks like a slightly upgraded BRob. Sure, he'll be a workhorse and is pretty big and durable, but from what I've seen he's not a gamebreaker, he has ok but not great vision, and while he's a powerful north-south runner, he's not especially shifty and his lateral agility is just decent. I think he'll be good if he's behind a good OL, but probably not much more than average if he's behind a lesser OL.

I don't think he's in the class of Breece Hall, Gibbs, Bijan, Jonathan Taylor, Barkley etc, but I don't think any RB has a chance to be at that level with the possible exception of Jeanty. Otoh, I'd disagree w/some of that: He brings a 4.48 forty to the party which is 81st percentile for all RB's, and 91st percentile for RB's approaching his size. In the explosion drills he was even better logging 94th percentile numbers in the vertical and broad combined. His PFF #'s on the other hand weren't ideal at Ohio State, but were much better in his freshman year at Ole Miss, which is kind of funny because surprisingly, especially considering your final sentence, he had his best year as an 18/19 year old freshman at Ole Miss playing for an 8-5 meh squad. 1700 combined yards (1500+ on the ground), and 17 TD's. 5.7 per carry, I'd need to go back to figure out how he rated in the #'s back then with PFF, may be you know.

I'd love to get Hampton, he was exactly what I wanted since November/December, but unfortunately he has climbed into supposedly a dead heat for Jeanty to be the first back off the board (I get the sense, some teams have Jeanty #1, others have Hampton). But once those guys are gone, you've got Judkins, Trey, and Kaleb as the next highest tier, and I prefer Judkins to Trey or Kaleb.

I will say, I tend to think the team isn't getting Judkins, or Hampton, or Jeanty. I tend to think they trade down from 29, and then use a 2nd or 3rd they recoup on a RB outside that tier entirely, failing that, I think they go after Trey, and I like Trey well enough, I just hate his age, and the possibility that he can never be a true bell cow (i think he can, I think most teams think he can't).

[Warhead36]

Yeah I don't think Hampton is gonna lost to 29 anymore. RB appears to be back in vogue now and there are enough decent teams that are gonna feel like they're a RB away from being explosive.

[Warhead36]

Higgins is my guy this year similar to Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey this year. But we're just in a weird spot where 29 would be too early to take him, and he won't last to our 2nd rounder.

Would be the ideal pick up if we could trade down to like 35 ish.

[brandies]

I believe if there is a decent offer. we will trade down. I am not optimistic.

[mistertim]

I believe if there is a decent offer. we will trade down. I am not optimistic.

Yeah, it's both a potentially good spot to be in and a potentially bad one.

Potentially good because if a guy falls to that point and some team with a high 2nd round pick liked the player but didn't want to take him high in the 1st but doesn't think he'll last to them in the 2nd then they may be willing to trade back into the 1st.

Potentially bad because that's the sweet spot where the above high picking teams would get back up into the 1st round, so it's just as possible that a few teams ahead of us will trade back as well, especially if a highly ranked player that is coveted by several teams falls.

[Warhead36]

Realistically the only two players I really see teams wanting to trade up for are Omarion Hampton and Jaxson Dart. But Hampton is likely gonna go before 29, and if he does fall to 29 why wouldn't we just take him and solidfy RB for the next 5 years?

And reg. Dart, it would take multiple teams wanting him for a trade to work. For example, the Browns pick 33rd and Giants pick 35th. Lets assume one of them doesn't get Sanders and the other does. So the team that didn't get Sanders will want Ward. But what incentive do they really have to move up with us? Its not like any of the teams after us are gonna take a QB. We'd need a bidding war.

Also, there are quite a few teams ahead of us that could easily take the trade down instead. A team could trade up to 24 or 27 etc almost as easily as they could move up to 29.

29 is just kind of a bad spot in this year's draft for trade down purposes.

[DWinzit]

I could see Shavon Revel being a CB target for us. He fits the DQ mold of tall and lenghty (6'2'' and 194). If for some reason we pass on Edge maybe something like Revel and Watts in the 1st and 2nd round to really overhaul our secondary. Revel and Lattimore can play outside and Sarinstil can shift back to the slot and we'd still have Jones and Noah I as utility/flex DBs.

I have a hard time seeing them go DBs in the 1st and 2nd. Too many other needs and players that are good fits for the needs. I can definitely see one DB that has coverage skills for sure.

[Warhead36]

I could see Shavon Revel being a CB target for us. He fits the DQ mold of tall and lenghty (6'2'' and 194). If for some reason we pass on Edge maybe something like Revel and Watts in the 1st and 2nd round to really overhaul our secondary. Revel and Lattimore can play outside and Sarinstil can shift back to the slot and we'd still have Jones and Noah I as utility/flex DBs.

I have a hard time seeing them go DBs in the 1st and 2nd. Too many other needs and players that are good fits for the needs. I can definitely see one DB that has coverage skills for sure.

DQ's best defenses historically had REALLY good DBs. The Legion of Boom in Seattle. Dallas with Diggs and Bland. Even those Atlanta secondaries were pretty solid IIRC in the Super Bowl year (they had a pick 6 in the 28-3 game).

I like our potential CB lineups but I still don't love our Ss. And I want another big outside CB. Really prefer Sarinstil in the slot.

[brandies]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/commanders-49ers-linked-to-nfl-draft-trade/ar-AA1C5q2C?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=13eb8d0d52f141e4bccaa164839f24e0&ei=105



trade down scenarios