2025 Schedule Thread

[mcsluggo]

I'm analyzing the schedule by QBs and its not fearful at all. Given these guys can grow a lot, especially the young guys like the guys in NY, Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota, but for the most part this is a mid schedule. People saying this is a tough schedule are not really backing it up.

Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Packers Mid QB (Highest QBR is 83, last year was 69)
Raiders - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 62, last year was a 53)
Falcons - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 51)
Chargers - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70, last year was a 65)
Bears - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 47)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
KC - Top QB (Highest QBR is a 80.3, last year was a 68)
Seattle - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 60, last year)
Detroit - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 68, last year)
Miami - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70.6, with a 60.3 last year)
Denver - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 56 last year)
Minnesota - Mid QB (no data)
Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)

That QBR data gives me some info that backs up my intuition. Some guys like Jordan Love give inspiring stats that make them seem like they should be in the top, but then he went and lost to Sam Darnold and just had an uninspiring first half of the season last year before playing catch up all last year. Defense fluctuates, and I don't see any formidable forces like Pitt or Baltimore on here, although Seattle may be a new Baltimore front on the west coast. But these names are a bunch of meh to me.

but you are calling anyone not named Mahomes/Allen/Hurts/Jackson as "meh"

Tua was the NFL passing leader the season before last, his only problem is concussions.. if he isn't on the dnp because of one, he is tough. Herbert, Dak, Goff and Love are all borderline top-tier (during the regular season, at least ). Dak has a lot to prove and will play like that. Herbert didn't have top stats last year ONLY because the offense was 1970s era big-10 grind it out in the trenches- he can light it up like the best. Nix had the best rookie season since Dak (other than the guy drafted #2, i forget his name..... ). Darnold was a top 3 qb until the last week of the season last year (and our D is NOTHING like the ones that squished him at the end of the season. Caleb was drafted number 1 last year for good reason, but dropped into a crappy situation-- now they have an improved line, and Ben Johnson to elevate his game.

basically the porous WFT d will face uncertain young QBs with potential updside from Minesotta and Altanta... probably crappy QB from the giants (twice) and otherwise QBs that easily have the potential to look good against a mediocre D.

Jayden Daniels and the (hopefully) improved offensive line won't be playing against these QBS, the WFT defense (who its not clear at all gained more talent than they lost from a mediocre unit last year) will need to show its mettle next year. it would SUCK to drop into a cincy type situation and waste elite QB play (assuming no sophomore regression in that area)

[Thinking Skins]

I'm analyzing the schedule by QBs and its not fearful at all. Given these guys can grow a lot, especially the young guys like the guys in NY, Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota, but for the most part this is a mid schedule. People saying this is a tough schedule are not really backing it up.

Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Packers Mid QB (Highest QBR is 83, last year was 69)
Raiders - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 62, last year was a 53)
Falcons - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 51)
Chargers - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70, last year was a 65)
Bears - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 47)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
KC - Top QB (Highest QBR is a 80.3, last year was a 68)
Seattle - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 60, last year)
Detroit - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 68, last year)
Miami - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70.6, with a 60.3 last year)
Denver - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 56 last year)
Minnesota - Mid QB (no data)
Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)

That QBR data gives me some info that backs up my intuition. Some guys like Jordan Love give inspiring stats that make them seem like they should be in the top, but then he went and lost to Sam Darnold and just had an uninspiring first half of the season last year before playing catch up all last year. Defense fluctuates, and I don't see any formidable forces like Pitt or Baltimore on here, although Seattle may be a new Baltimore front on the west coast. But these names are a bunch of meh to me.

but you are calling anyone not named Mahomes/Allen/Hurts/Jackson as "meh"

Tua was the NFL passing leader the season before last, his only problem is concussions.. if he isn't on the dnp because of one, he is tough. Herbert, Dak, Goff and Love are all borderline top-tier (during the regular season, at least ). Dak has a lot to prove and will play like that. Herbert didn't have top stats last year ONLY because the offense was 1970s era big-10 grind it out in the trenches- he can light it up like the best. Nix had the best rookie season since Dak (other than the guy drafted #2, i forget his name..... ). Darnold was a top 3 qb until the last week of the season last year (and our D is NOTHING like the ones that squished him at the end of the season. Caleb was drafted number 1 last year for good reason, but dropped into a crappy situation-- now they have an improved line, and Ben Johnson to elevate his game.

basically the porous WFT d will face uncertain young QBs with potential updside from Minesotta and Altanta... probably crappy QB from the giants (twice) and otherwise QBs that easily have the potential to look good against a mediocre D.

Jayden Daniels and the (hopefully) improved offensive line won't be playing against these QBS, the WFT defense (who its not clear at all gained more talent than they lost from a mediocre unit last year) will need to show its mettle next year. it would SUCK to drop into a cincy type situation and waste elite QB play (assuming no sophomore regression in that area)

These are good points. But I didn't base it solely on last year, I based it on careers. Herbert is still in that 1970s offense so there's no guarantee that he'll get any better.

Goff has a new OC so I have no idea who he'll be. Honestly, I'm more afraid of his RB than him. But he does have two top WRs so that may be how he comes back. But then again, we may have written the book on him.

Same with Darnold, the book is out on him. Once the end of the season was played other teams started playing him the same way. He need show he can beat the blitz consistently, or he'll die by it. But he has a career of being a backup then one good year, I'm going with the career of backup.

Love is closer to Herbert and I think he's a really good QB. He had a dominant 2nd half last year. But he just needs to do it more often and win games. He had won 5 out of 6 then lost 3 in a row. Those games mattered too.

And while there's no guarantee that we'll have a better defense, there is promise that we can have better CBs with Mikey and Amos giving rise to Lattimore looking better. That may make the pass rush look better and at least lock down WRs longer.

Tua is a meh QB. I just think he's a gimmick. Its great that he can put up the numbers and stuff, but similar to Darnold and Goff, the book is out on him. He needs to show he can survive a hit. Multiple hits. Dude is one concussion away from retirement. He is thinking about the next life (retirement with his kids), not trying to be a 5000 yard 40 TD passer, plus in cold weather games he's a bum.

[skinsinparadise]

[skinsinparadise]

Aah, I've missed you SIP.

I don' think any of these defenses are to worry about either. As some of the podcasts I listen to mention, JD has no real weaknesses in his game. One mentioned a possible weakness is that he is inaccurate in 20+ yard throws from an open pocket. That's something he has to work on.

But games are always about the QB. Its can we out do what they're doing. Can we come back and score when they've scored. With a team like Philly its different because last year they had a RB who could score from anywhere on the field, but playing Lamar, and heck I'd probably put Baker above most of the guys on this list. Then there's Kyler. We played some not great but better QBs than we face this year.

Outside the division QBs we face are Mahomes, Love, Herbert and Goff as the established vets. Then there is whoever NY throws at us. And whatever Minny does because he's probably going to be good. Seattle is not going to be good. Williams will be good, but c'mon he had 0 completions in that game. Nix is a threat.

Good to see you back. I love Jayden. I think he has the potential to be the best in the game. And I am going off of memory, but I recall one anaylist say he's up against if I recall like 8 top ten pass defenses (ranked last year) this year.

While I agree for example that Bo Nix is no Jayden Daniels. Our defense is nowhere near Denver's defense, etc.

I like Croskey-Merritt and think he can surprise some this season but that's an unknown variable. The dudes we know we got at RB are arguably pedestrian at best. And we are facing Barkley twice, B. Robinson. J. Gibbs. J. Jacobs, etc.

Heck even teams without hype for their running game like the NY Giants are IMO better -- I'd kill for their tanden of Tracy (who killed us in a matchup last season) and Skattebo.

Agree, QBs are king. And agree we likely overcome teams with more talented roster but lesser QBs. But it doesn't take away we face a ton of playoff teams from last year, many of whom are more talented than this team and we do so while being top 10 in traveling miles, top 3 in worst rest differential, and with a lot of variance as to what day-time we play.

Those factors weren't in play so much last year. As to W-L records, if I recall we ended up playing one of the weakest schedules last year (if I recall it might have ended up the weakest. We travelled to the least in the league. And we had that consistent 1 pm Sunday schedule for most of last year.

At a minimum on paper, this schedule should be a lot harder and more challanging than last season.

I'm not discounting those things. I'm just saying that I haven't seen the QB factor reported on enough. That's why I had to come back on here and do some analysis and see if my intuition was backed up by data. Even if you're right that teams have better defenses and RBs than us. 1. we know that the number one needle mover is a QB. 2. Defense fluctuates from year to year. I'm not saying with every team but with a lot of them. 3. How many of those RBs (not the Gibbs or Robinsons) were depending on their QBs being good to get them yards vs the other way around?

I know we're not going 17-0. But this is nowhere near the hard schedule people are making it out to be. I don't think air miles is the burden people place on it. One I think that depends on the owner. We saw what Harris did with the ?Arizona? games when they took off immediately. It can become a bonding moment rather than a complaining thing. Sure its about how the body recovers, but its also about the locker room and how they adapt to it. Question becomes is Harris providing them with massage therapists and body people to recover as quickly as possible? Little things matter.

I think the better way for me to put it is everything seemed to line up perfectly for them last year. Few major injuries. Light schedule. Consistent 1 pm Sunday games which ex-players like Logan Paulsen explained is easier to get ready for versus a schedule that varies a lot from 1, 4, 8, Thursday, Monday, etc. like will be the case this year. Fewist travel miles, etc last year. Didn't have to face Dak in either game and still lost one and almost lost the 2nd.

I love where this team is headed and I think Jayden is elite. And can an elite QB overcome a roster that isn't as good as the opponents, yep. But we are asking for Jayden to do it this time versus a schedule that is unrelenting in a way that wasn't the case last year.

[skinsinparadise]

I'm analyzing the schedule by QBs and its not fearful at all. Given these guys can grow a lot, especially the young guys like the guys in NY, Atlanta, Denver and Minnesota, but for the most part this is a mid schedule. People saying this is a tough schedule are not really backing it up.

Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Packers Mid QB (Highest QBR is 83, last year was 69)
Raiders - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 62, last year was a 53)
Falcons - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 51)
Chargers - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70, last year was a 65)
Bears - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 47)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
KC - Top QB (Highest QBR is a 80.3, last year was a 68)
Seattle - Poor QB (Highest QBR is a 60, last year)
Detroit - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 68, last year)
Miami - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 70.6, with a 60.3 last year)
Denver - Mid QB (Highest QBR is a 56 last year)
Minnesota - Mid QB (no data)
Giants - Poor QB (old QB and a overdrafted rookie)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)
Dallas - Mid to Top QB (Highest QBR is a 77, last year was a 45)
Eagles - Top QB (Highest QBR is 68 with a 65 last year)

That QBR data gives me some info that backs up my intuition. Some guys like Jordan Love give inspiring stats that make them seem like they should be in the top, but then he went and lost to Sam Darnold and just had an uninspiring first half of the season last year before playing catch up all last year. Defense fluctuates, and I don't see any formidable forces like Pitt or Baltimore on here, although Seattle may be a new Baltimore front on the west coast. But these names are a bunch of meh to me.

If its head to head like a tennis match Jayden Daniels versus name that QB they face, they will be 16-1.

The challenge is teams with good QBs that while don't match Jayden, have better defenses, better running backs.

My theory the last few years has been that NFL football is largely an individual sport disguised as a team sport. It really is as simple MOST of the time as QB vs. QB. Of course if there are huge discrepancies in supporting cast (see NFC title game and Super Bowl) that can make up for it, but if your QB is better, especially significantly better, you're gonna be favored to win.

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

[Warhead36]

If its head to head like a tennis match Jayden Daniels versus name that QB they face, they will be 16-1.

The challenge is teams with good QBs that while don't match Jayden, have better defenses, better running backs.

My theory the last few years has been that NFL football is largely an individual sport disguised as a team sport. It really is as simple MOST of the time as QB vs. QB. Of course if there are huge discrepancies in supporting cast (see NFC title game and Super Bowl) that can make up for it, but if your QB is better, especially significantly better, you're gonna be favored to win.

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

Its a generalization but yes as I said if the roster is that much better it can overcome a difference in QB.

[Thinking Skins]

If its head to head like a tennis match Jayden Daniels versus name that QB they face, they will be 16-1.

The challenge is teams with good QBs that while don't match Jayden, have better defenses, better running backs.

My theory the last few years has been that NFL football is largely an individual sport disguised as a team sport. It really is as simple MOST of the time as QB vs. QB. Of course if there are huge discrepancies in supporting cast (see NFC title game and Super Bowl) that can make up for it, but if your QB is better, especially significantly better, you're gonna be favored to win.

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

I'm just saying that its a metric that needs to be conidered. Notice I didn't predict a record based on the QBs. I just said I'm not afraid of any QBs on those rosters. Look at a guy like Warren Sharp who's going around acting like miles travelled is a more important stat and I'd argue any day that who's QB of your (opponents) team is a more important metric for number of wins than miles travelled. Same for opponents win percentage. Those are flimsy, but the QB themselves are more consistent from year to year even when the teams fluctuate.

In 2021, we faced Herbert, Allen, Ryan, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady. All in the first 8 weeks. Those are all outside the division. That's a who's who of QBs. You remember our record? 3-6 (with a win against NY, so that really doesn't count). What I'm saying is look at the QBs we're facing to get a feel for the schedule because this is a one player league. We saw it last year when JD single handedly lifted this team to a 12-5 year.

[skinsinparadise]

My theory the last few years has been that NFL football is largely an individual sport disguised as a team sport. It really is as simple MOST of the time as QB vs. QB. Of course if there are huge discrepancies in supporting cast (see NFC title game and Super Bowl) that can make up for it, but if your QB is better, especially significantly better, you're gonna be favored to win.

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

Its a generalization but yes as I said if the roster is that much better it can overcome a difference in QB.

And if you got no defense it can do you in, see Joe Burrow.

[skinsinparadise]

My theory the last few years has been that NFL football is largely an individual sport disguised as a team sport. It really is as simple MOST of the time as QB vs. QB. Of course if there are huge discrepancies in supporting cast (see NFC title game and Super Bowl) that can make up for it, but if your QB is better, especially significantly better, you're gonna be favored to win.

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

I'm just saying that its a metric that needs to be conidered. Notice I didn't predict a record based on the QBs. I just said I'm not afraid of any QBs on those rosters. Look at a guy like Warren Sharp who's going around acting like miles travelled is a more important stat and I'd argue any day that who's QB of your (opponents) team is a more important metric for number of wins than miles travelled. Same for opponents win percentage. Those are flimsy, but the QB themselves are more consistent from year to year even when the teams fluctuate.

In 2021, we faced Herbert, Allen, Ryan, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady. All in the first 8 weeks. Those are all outside the division. That's a who's who of QBs. You remember our record? 3-6 (with a win against NY, so that really doesn't count). What I'm saying is look at the QBs we're facing to get a feel for the schedule because this is a one player league. We saw it last year when JD single handedly lifted this team to a 12-5 year.

Sharp of course isn't saying the number of miles you travel is more important than what QB you play. His bigger point anyway is rest days. This team was screwed on that count. They are playing 4 teams coming off of bye weeks, the most in the league. they have the third worst rest differential in the league.

It's a cliche just about to say its not always who you play but WHEN you play them. Considering many teams have a rest advantage over this team, and that also means it easier for them to bring guys back from injury or for them to rest and recover from injury, that matters. From an anayltical standpoint, he's found it statistically relevant. Last year the team with the worst rest differential was the 49ers. The best if I recall was the Lions. Apparently the Lions were given the best again this year.

If Logan Paulsen among others says from experience its not easy to shift every week from 1 pm, to then 4 pm to then 8 pm. Your body doesn't react the same to that. Maybe it does matter.

If they are playing arguably the three toughest divisions in football this year, includng ours, maybe it does matter.

Conversely, maybe it did matter that they played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL last year statistically speaking, traveled the least miles and had consistent 1 PM games almost every week.

You don't seem to think this is a dramatic shift. Some and apparently Vegas among them think this schedule will be a bigger challange than last year and expect them to win less games than last year.

Personally, I think the team is better than last year but I do think they will win less than 12 games. Probably 10, maybe 11. But the schedule clearly looks tough.

The one upside of a schedule like this is as Joe Gibbs said once in an interview, he liked at times a hard schedule because it prepared them for the post season.

[Thinking Skins]

I agree to an extent. But just judging every game by which QB is better, takes it to the extreme.

Lets take the Eagles matchups. Few disagree that Jayden >> Hurts. Almost no one would say Commanders >> Eagles.

Why? Because if you got a team that is better by a good margin and has lets say an 8.5 out of 10 type QB, they should beat the team with the 9 QB with the weaker roster.

For example, if you got a D line which can manhandle the opponent's O line -- that's how you get Eli beating Brady multiple times and Foles beating him, too. Hurts beating Mahomes, etc.

I'm just saying that its a metric that needs to be conidered. Notice I didn't predict a record based on the QBs. I just said I'm not afraid of any QBs on those rosters. Look at a guy like Warren Sharp who's going around acting like miles travelled is a more important stat and I'd argue any day that who's QB of your (opponents) team is a more important metric for number of wins than miles travelled. Same for opponents win percentage. Those are flimsy, but the QB themselves are more consistent from year to year even when the teams fluctuate.

In 2021, we faced Herbert, Allen, Ryan, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady. All in the first 8 weeks. Those are all outside the division. That's a who's who of QBs. You remember our record? 3-6 (with a win against NY, so that really doesn't count). What I'm saying is look at the QBs we're facing to get a feel for the schedule because this is a one player league. We saw it last year when JD single handedly lifted this team to a 12-5 year.

Sharp of course isn't saying the number of miles you travel is more important than what QB you play. His bigger point anyway is rest days. This team was screwed on that count. They are playing 4 teams coming off of bye weeks, the most in the league. they have the third worst rest differential in the league.

It's a cliche just about to say its not always who you play but WHEN you play them. Considering many teams have a rest advantage over this team, and that also means it easier for them to bring guys back from injury or for them to rest and recover from injury, that matters. From an anayltical standpoint, he's found it statistically relevant. Last year the team with the worst rest differential was the 49ers. The best if I recall was the Lions. Apparently the Lions were given the best again this year.

If Logan Paulsen among others says from experience its not easy to shift every week from 1 pm, to then 4 pm to then 8 pm. Your body doesn't react the same to that. Maybe it does matter.

If they are playing arguably the three toughest divisions in football this year, includng ours, maybe it does matter.

Conversely, maybe it did matter that they played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL last year statistically speaking, traveled the least miles and had consistent 1 PM games almost every week.

You don't seem to think this is a dramatic shift. Some and apparently Vegas among them think this schedule will be a bigger challange than last year and expect them to win less games than last year.

Personally, I think the team is better than last year but I do think they will win less than 12 games. Probably 10, maybe 11. But the schedule clearly looks tough.

The one upside of a schedule like this is as Joe Gibbs said once in an interview, he liked at times a hard schedule because it prepared them for the post season.

I'm just bringing in the factor that I think isn't being talked about enough. I think who they play is important (division) and miles traveled is also important, but QB is the most important because this is basically a one person league. Yes injuries matter, but injuries everywhere but the important position can almost always be overcome. We saw is SF that Purdy wasn't the elite QB some like me thought he was. But still he's a nice QB whose weapons make him look nice(kinda like Hurts).

I think we're set of 13+ wins this year. It's not gonna be a cakewalk but I can't have faith in JD and see us barely above .500

Part of my frustration with this is that Warren Sharp recommended this. So I feel like I'm arguing against him. I'm not saying he's bad or his opinion is bad, I'm just saying that there are more things to consider. Yes this (miles traveled) helps take into account injuries and a lot of things like that, but it doesn't take into account everything and that's all I'm saying. And one thing that I'm saying that it doesn't take into account is the opposing QBs.

So supposing that both teams come in healthy, that factor is null. And it becomes a question of my QB vs his defense and him vs my defense. And I'm taking JD every time.

And I'm not betting that Warren has found a way to predict injuries.