Re: Draft thread
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 4:06 pm
by The Consigliere
skinsinparadise wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 5:34 pm
It's cool. I am not saying anyone should trust anyone's take over another. But I do think there is nothing that beats watching players. Also learning as much as you can about them as a person if its a player you like. I like to form my own opinions but am far from oblivious (quite the opposite) for what the outside world thinks of these guys.
Cool that you are a podcast addict, I'd still be surprised if you digest more draft info than i do. I am freakish with it. It's a bit unhealthy.
I listen to everything I can. So I am perfectly aware of name that draft geek takes. Some anayltics in that mix of what I paid attention to. I have a grid that I create on most positions -- all full of numbers from multiple places. I subscribe to PFF, Sharp's site. And I'll watch pretty much every PFF podcast done by various anaylists especially Sikemma, and Monson, and Steve P. I listen to the old football outsider guys. I'll watch Josh Norris. I subscribe to the McGinn draft reports from scouts. I'll subscribe to basically almost anything draft related -- heck even Mcshay's new draft reports
Every night, I am watching some draft podcast before going to bed. When I take my dog for a walk, guess what am listening to? When I work out. Heck sometimes I'll listen to the same podcast twice. Back in the day, I would order the Kiper draft booklet when he used to do them. I ordered Brugler's "The Beast" every year he's done them, this year its free. But I'll read about every prospect that am intrigued by.
I am not saying this to brag. My interest in the draft is borderline unhealthy. My wife likes to joke that the draft is my real birthday.
My point is i am VERY aware of plenty of other people's takes on the same player. Don't get me wrong, I bet you got a great handle on other people takes on these guys. But me, too. I am the same.
I gather you are more about the fantasy anayltic guys versus the straight anayltics guys. I'll read some takes mostly on twitter from the fantasy guys but nope I don't follow them religously the way I follow everyone else.
But just like our debate about Terry back in the day. I only bring it up because it helps illustrate a point whenever we delve into this. And I think you miss my point when i bring it up. I am not bringing it up because I was right and you were wrong. Everyone here will be right about someone and wrong about someone else, including of course me, so no big deal.
My point on it is that even if you want to say you are all about the numbers. You are unemotional and just working the odds. Versus people like me who are using more flawed-emotional based takes. So if we went to Vegas, you'd come out on top but I on occasion would defy the odds because heck outliers happen. You implied something like this in one of the debates we had years back. And while I get the point, I reject the premise of it.
It's not like you are debating someone oblivious to anayltics or how to use stats. It's a factor in how i see things. But in my mind at least factoring in context along with the analytics and not being a slave to either one -- is sound decision making.
Coming from a dude who eons ago TA'd stats in college. My college professor often loved to say, that stats still require context. Because it's so easy in some cases to find numbers that help present your case but also can be misleading and or not present the full picture. It's hard to isolate variables as to this matters more than that without biases creeping in.
Bringing this back to Terry. He was everything the numbers indicate according to you back then as to being a bust -- late breakout season, dominator score was "meh", he was the third wheel in that offense, older prospect, on and on. But IMO that was a myopic view even looking at it from a pure numbers stand point.
It wasn't that there weren't any numbers to make the case for Terry. He had a sick 20 YPC. 700 plus yards as the third target is impressive. He ran a sub 4.4. Then how many narratives can you ignore? He was the best player at the Senior Bowl. Urban Myer said he was one of the most special players who ever played for him. Captain. Beloved on the team. The stories about how he improved as a WR by working Rocky like everyday with the jug machine. On and on and on.
So some of the numbers are intriguing in my book. But some of the numbers you hated in your book. Cool either way. But explaining my logic. The stories about Terry were epic level with multiple layers to it. And yes i liked what I saw when I watched him. That was the key. Those are way too many variables converging in Terry's favor. It didn't feel remotely like an outlier to me.
There were so many things in the soup where it shouldn't have been a shock. A dude who works like crazy, is beloved by his teammates, was the best player in the Senior Bowl, killed the combine as far as speed, was a proven deep threat with a sick 20 YPC -- was it really that much of a shock. Is the "breakout data" so strong that it overrides everything? It seems way over the top to be that level married to a data points like that where you ignore so many other variables that collide with it.
In my business, sometimes I do polls but its not what I major in. But its my job to often digest the poll for the client. if the pollster isn't giving their anaylsis, its up to me to provide my own to the client. If all I did was just go by the book and spout the numbers, i would suck at my job. I can't just regurgitate numbers. I have to see context and meaning and counter arguments as part of the process. To me its similar with the draft. I do think the numbers matter. But I do think context matters too. It's all part of the soup. Why is it so? Are their numbers that counter it? Narratives? I am not saying you aren't aware of this. I am just saying for me, i take the context part very seriouslty but it has nothing to do with not being aware of trends and numbers.
And bringing that same point to Jayden versus Maye. This is coming from a dude who loved them both but did prefer Maye. I was wrong. To me now its Jayden > Maye. Why? While I agree you are shooting in the dark some when you are guessing the personality of the player before they are drafted. Once they are in the house, you have a good sense.
Tom Brady wasn't special because the dude killed the combine and his college numbers were spectacular and was blessed with freakish talent. He was special for a number of reasons and among them was: work ethic, drive, ability to see the field, clutch gene, toughness, etc.
Both Joe Gibbs and Shanny in different ways have said they don't know if they have a special QB or not until they have them in the building and they can see their personality up close, and then they know. I liked everything I've read about Maye before the draft.
However, the narrative about Daniels was even easier to love with the stories about how they had to give him a key to get to the building early, he got the WRs to prepare with him, etc. Hearing all the stories about Daniels work ethic once he arrived here take that narrative up a few notches further -- which are Brady like levels.
Doing walk throughs at 5 am, on and on. The dude is driven in a way that's special. And its not something that the anayltics can quantify.
I just don't get the sense watching and reading about Maye -- and I digested a ton about him -- his intangibles match Daniels. And that includes clutch play. I don't think Maye is bad in the clutch but watching his college games, he was on and off in those big moments. We can see that Daniels is special on that front. Special in the 4th quarter. Special in big games.
As much as I loved Maye, it would be nauseating to me the thought of swapping Daniels for him. I think Maye has a good shot of being a top 7 type QB. I think Daniels has a good shot of supplanting Mahomes as the best QB in the league and am far from alone on that thought.
*There's no way I digest as much draft info as you do because I'm far too spread out....as an example, today for me is:
>Globalization and Trade Barriers in Economics Class
>Keeping, reforming or dumping the Electoral College Seminar for AP Government
>The rise of totalitarian dictatorships between 1919 and 1939 for World History
In between discussions about a dispute over funding for HOSA competition in 2025 vs 2026, and personality conflicts in department work.
My kids debut soccer game for spring season in U10's, and the first live experience for my parents seeing him play.
In terms of what I'm thinking about beyond school and that: Wizards and the huge relevance of tonights Memphis game (Memphis wins and we get the 18th pick in the draft this summer, they lose and we get a crap 2nd rounder in '25 or '26 or '27), what should the Wiz do if they land a pick between 1.03-1.06 instead of 1.01-1.02, just how bad are the caps right now, and since Protas went down? Are the Guardians and Nats gonna be relevant this year? Who should the Nats take #1 and why is Keith Law so obsessed with Liam Doyle when nobody else has been?
Then my Podcast feeds recent additions:
-Real Time with Bill Maher
-Prestige TV
-Bulwark
-Making Sense/Sam Harris
-Inside of You
-the Secret History of Hollywod
-60 songs that explain the 90s
-Rotoviz Radio
-Player Profiler
-Savage Lovecast (only listen to his openings most of the time)
-Dave Chang show (after not listening at all for 9 months)
-Bill Simmons
-Jeff Lewis has issues (for gay culture fix, considering I lost my connection to it when I left the bay area, along with Jeff Lewis in general being hilarious if sometimes meanspirited)
-Honestly with Bari Weiss
-Majority Report/Sam Seder
-Dispatch Podcast
-Extinct Zoo
-You Must Remember this
-Brett Easton Ellis
-Strict Scrutiny
-Triggernometry
-The Remnant
-Modern Wisdom
-Watch What Crappens
-The Fifth Column
-Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps
-Tyler Cowen (when I know the guest and like the topic, like this week on the beatles)
-Hardcore History
-Monster Party
-Blocks with Neal Brennan
-WTF with Marc Maron
-The Rest of History
-RJ Bell for NCAA Tournament and NFL Over/Under win totals
-Intelligence Squared
-In Soccer We Trust and Scuffed
-The Problem with Jon Stewart
-The Origins podcast with Lawrence Kraus
-The Ezra Klein Show
-How did this get made
-The Dana Gould Hour
-House of R
-Pivot
-Al Franken
-The Gist
-Sunday Papers
-the Good Fight
-Know Your Enemy
-Call Me Back for insights on October 7th
-The Prof G Pod
-Dan Snow History Hit
-The Glenn Show (Glenn Loury has lost his mind though on politics)
-The DishCast
-U talkin U2 to me
-Advisory Opinions
-The Rewatchables
-Attitudes/Groceries
-Sharpe Football Analysis
And there's dozens more....I listen to a billion different shows that cover comedy, culture, film, politics, sports, science, international relations, SCOTUS and the courts, pop culture, history and on and on and on....Some of it is internally contradictory in part because I just don't want to accidentally silo myself politically and to a lesser degree, culturally.
Basically, it's ADHD heaven. I'm constantly moving back and forth between sharply different podcasts. This morning I was listening to Rich Hribar and Matt Kelley talk veteran and rookie rb's, switched to the dispatch to get a more right wing version of never trumper perspective on Russia and Tucker Carlson's latest liefest, now I'm listening to the lawfare guy and Tim Miller on El Salvador and Ukraine, but the other day it was Ezra Klein, and before that it was semi-disgraced Lawrence Krause and Sam Harris on separate topics Steven Pinker, Ricky Gervais, and the latest in political news with Sam Harris.
I'm always spinning from one topic to another, sometimes politics, sometimes science, sometimes pop culture, sometimes the economy, sometimes sports, etc. Five years ago it would have been mostly science, sports, and comedy, over time my interests spread out and vary. 15 years ago it was Adam Carolla and Bill Burr, I haven't listened to the former since 2015, and I listen to burr about a half dozen times a year at this point, interests disperse over time
.
So yeah, I don't really focus on much of anything, I'm interested in a billion different things, constantly spinning in various directions like an electron, trying to avoid pissing off my wife while I'm doing it. Part II next lol.
Re: Draft thread
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 5:12 pm
by The Consigliere
skinsinparadise wrote: Thu Apr 17, 2025 5:34 pm
It's cool. I am not saying anyone should trust anyone's take over another. But I do think there is nothing that beats watching players. Also learning as much as you can about them as a person if its a player you like. I like to form my own opinions but am far from oblivious (quite the opposite) for what the outside world thinks of these guys.
Cool that you are a podcast addict, I'd still be surprised if you digest more draft info than i do. I am freakish with it. It's a bit unhealthy.
I listen to everything I can. So I am perfectly aware of name that draft geek takes. Some anayltics in that mix of what I paid attention to. I have a grid that I create on most positions -- all full of numbers from multiple places. I subscribe to PFF, Sharp's site. And I'll watch pretty much every PFF podcast done by various anaylists especially Sikemma, and Monson, and Steve P. I listen to the old football outsider guys. I'll watch Josh Norris. I subscribe to the McGinn draft reports from scouts. I'll subscribe to basically almost anything draft related -- heck even Mcshay's new draft reports
Every night, I am watching some draft podcast before going to bed. When I take my dog for a walk, guess what am listening to? When I work out. Heck sometimes I'll listen to the same podcast twice. Back in the day, I would order the Kiper draft booklet when he used to do them. I ordered Brugler's "The Beast" every year he's done them, this year its free. But I'll read about every prospect that am intrigued by.
I am not saying this to brag. My interest in the draft is borderline unhealthy. My wife likes to joke that the draft is my real birthday.
My point is i am VERY aware of plenty of other people's takes on the same player. Don't get me wrong, I bet you got a great handle on other people takes on these guys. But me, too. I am the same.
I gather you are more about the fantasy anayltic guys versus the straight anayltics guys. I'll read some takes mostly on twitter from the fantasy guys but nope I don't follow them religously the way I follow everyone else.
But just like our debate about Terry back in the day. I only bring it up because it helps illustrate a point whenever we delve into this. And I think you miss my point when i bring it up. I am not bringing it up because I was right and you were wrong. Everyone here will be right about someone and wrong about someone else, including of course me, so no big deal.
My point on it is that even if you want to say you are all about the numbers. You are unemotional and just working the odds. Versus people like me who are using more flawed-emotional based takes. So if we went to Vegas, you'd come out on top but I on occasion would defy the odds because heck outliers happen. You implied something like this in one of the debates we had years back. And while I get the point, I reject the premise of it.
It's not like you are debating someone oblivious to anayltics or how to use stats. It's a factor in how i see things. But in my mind at least factoring in context along with the analytics and not being a slave to either one -- is sound decision making.
Coming from a dude who eons ago TA'd stats in college. My college professor often loved to say, that stats still require context. Because it's so easy in some cases to find numbers that help present your case but also can be misleading and or not present the full picture. It's hard to isolate variables as to this matters more than that without biases creeping in.
Bringing this back to Terry. He was everything the numbers indicate according to you back then as to being a bust -- late breakout season, dominator score was "meh", he was the third wheel in that offense, older prospect, on and on. But IMO that was a myopic view even looking at it from a pure numbers stand point.
It wasn't that there weren't any numbers to make the case for Terry. He had a sick 20 YPC. 700 plus yards as the third target is impressive. He ran a sub 4.4. Then how many narratives can you ignore? He was the best player at the Senior Bowl. Urban Myer said he was one of the most special players who ever played for him. Captain. Beloved on the team. The stories about how he improved as a WR by working Rocky like everyday with the jug machine. On and on and on.
So some of the numbers are intriguing in my book. But some of the numbers you hated in your book. Cool either way. But explaining my logic. The stories about Terry were epic level with multiple layers to it. And yes i liked what I saw when I watched him. That was the key. Those are way too many variables converging in Terry's favor. It didn't feel remotely like an outlier to me.
There were so many things in the soup where it shouldn't have been a shock. A dude who works like crazy, is beloved by his teammates, was the best player in the Senior Bowl, killed the combine as far as speed, was a proven deep threat with a sick 20 YPC -- was it really that much of a shock. Is the "breakout data" so strong that it overrides everything? It seems way over the top to be that level married to a data points like that where you ignore so many other variables that collide with it.
In my business, sometimes I do polls but its not what I major in. But its my job to often digest the poll for the client. if the pollster isn't giving their anaylsis, its up to me to provide my own to the client. If all I did was just go by the book and spout the numbers, i would suck at my job. I can't just regurgitate numbers. I have to see context and meaning and counter arguments as part of the process. To me its similar with the draft. I do think the numbers matter. But I do think context matters too. It's all part of the soup. Why is it so? Are their numbers that counter it? Narratives? I am not saying you aren't aware of this. I am just saying for me, i take the context part very seriouslty but it has nothing to do with not being aware of trends and numbers.
And bringing that same point to Jayden versus Maye. This is coming from a dude who loved them both but did prefer Maye. I was wrong. To me now its Jayden > Maye. Why? While I agree you are shooting in the dark some when you are guessing the personality of the player before they are drafted. Once they are in the house, you have a good sense.
Tom Brady wasn't special because the dude killed the combine and his college numbers were spectacular and was blessed with freakish talent. He was special for a number of reasons and among them was: work ethic, drive, ability to see the field, clutch gene, toughness, etc.
Both Joe Gibbs and Shanny in different ways have said they don't know if they have a special QB or not until they have them in the building and they can see their personality up close, and then they know. I liked everything I've read about Maye before the draft.
However, the narrative about Daniels was even easier to love with the stories about how they had to give him a key to get to the building early, he got the WRs to prepare with him, etc. Hearing all the stories about Daniels work ethic once he arrived here take that narrative up a few notches further -- which are Brady like levels.
Doing walk throughs at 5 am, on and on. The dude is driven in a way that's special. And its not something that the anayltics can quantify.
I just don't get the sense watching and reading about Maye -- and I digested a ton about him -- his intangibles match Daniels. And that includes clutch play. I don't think Maye is bad in the clutch but watching his college games, he was on and off in those big moments. We can see that Daniels is special on that front. Special in the 4th quarter. Special in big games.
As much as I loved Maye, it would be nauseating to me the thought of swapping Daniels for him. I think Maye has a good shot of being a top 7 type QB. I think Daniels has a good shot of supplanting Mahomes as the best QB in the league and am far from alone on that thought.
*I used to be the same way, but over time I think the Redskins sucking so bad between 1993-2013 really war me down, and after RGIII had the knee, it kind of killed 90% of my interest as I tended to view it as Dan Snyder has to die for there to be any hope, even a QB would be ruined by him and his toadies. So I started shifting my interest to US Soccer in the early aughts, and retained my moderate if declining interest in Basketball and Baseball (Hockey always stayed reasonably the same). My shifts in sports became: Caps in season, Nats in season 2011-2020, Guardians in season, and the draft for the Wiz and the Redskins and I stopped watching games for the most part from 2013-2020's, only the bare minimum at that point. Last season was probably the first time I watched more than 2 games since 2015.
*in terms of the draft, I trust guys I read on everything except QB's (where I trust noone because its largely impossible to evaluate), and RB's and WR's, and TE's for dynasty purposes. I do go in depth there, in terms of all the other positions, I read up, but I can't glean much of anything from watching so I do little to none for DB, LB, Edge, DT, OT, IOL.
*In terms of Terry, I don't really get and never really will how you stick on that so much. For me the process was really simple:
>I was playing the odds. more than 85% of players who hit, have the profile I want, there was just in general odds, about a 1 in what, 6 or 7 shot that he'd hit in general. The third round draft capital made it even worse, at least if he'd had first round draft capital he could count on reps, and teams ignoring the sunk cost fallacy to keep giving him room to fail that they wouldn't with UDFA's and day 3 guys.
>Second piece of it is that I get that there were signs that he could hit, and explanations for why he had the issues he had, but nearly all of them were anecdotal bull---- that accompanies all guys beloved by coaches, "great people" who then have utterly anonymous and typically very short NFL careers. In 37 or 38 years of watching drafts, you know how many "feel good, captains, who were the coaches favorite guy" I've seen drafted 3rd round and later who busted, compared to hit? Just spit balling, I'd put the miss rate at not surprisingly, 85-90% and most of the hits turn out to be JAGS.
That being said, the one caveat I have, or two, are that there were a couple of interesting pieces on his CV that were explanatory. #1 he was blocked by mega elite WR's (if I remember, Michael Thomas, and Curtis Samuel for starters, Parris Campbell as well who was hot at the time, KJ Hill and Noah Brown who were not as hot) and #2 he had a shockingly elite Athletic Profile.
My problem was:
#1 the guys blocking him left after '15 and '16, and the guys after other than Campbell, weren't too impressive.
#2 Athletic profile matters a ton for RB's and TE's historically, they go hand and hand, but for WR's, beyond the thresholds (that same 4.65 again), they don't matter too much. I think it was Scott Barrett who mentioned that as of 2023 for the data they had collected WR's with crappier bench presses than the 50th percentile had better careers than those with higher than the 50th.
So with that knowledge in tow, now, would I change my mind then? I think looking back, not suffering from take lock, I'd open my mind to the possibility that there was enough in his profile to explain why he didn't hit earlier, like baseball players in the minors who are "blocked". That combined w/the fact that our WR room sucking would give me enough justification to consider him as worth a look (I did end up owning him on two dynasty teams after all out of 15), so yeah, I would move my priors from: "no chance, off my board," to more like where my Skateboo" take is now, for the most part, which is, "cracking the door open because there are some interesting things in his profile (killing it against the big teams on his schedule, explosion drills that were through the roof, only two years at major university to show his stuff).
In terms of Maye vs Daniels:
The reason I'd actually consider Maye seriously over Daniels now, even though Daniels is clearly and justifiably ranked ahead of him by any sane person is entirely outside of his '24 performance. Its purely based on health risk/frame, age, and his arm talent (though I think Daniels is fine there as we learned in season). I'd be crazy enough to trade for Maye because he is a dual threat guy himself, is far more likely to stay healthy and as a result have a longer career, barring catastrophic injuries, concussions etc. That's it. In terms of '24 alone, you'd take Daniels 100 times out of 100. I'm just looking at '25-'35 and beyond, and I think Maye is a better chance to be still producing great seasons in the 2030's. I don't know if Daniels will be healthy enough to do so much beyond 2030-2032, I could see Maye playing into the 2040s.
I hear you on the walk into the building bit, and the mental make up piece, brains, mentality etc. I think the NFL learned a great deal from Jeff George and Ryan Leaf flaming out so horribly in the 90's. They came to realize that you really had to know what was going on between the years as much as possible, through interviews, due diligence guys interviewing who knew him off campus etc. Even then, you're not necessairly sure. Daniels was supposed to be introverted after all, I didn't see a lot of signs of that, though admittedly I'd have to watch him all day for a week to get a sense of that, not just flashes.
Regardless, when extremeskins went down last year was quite freaking annoying lol, I ate my crow in September, gotta own when you're wrong or at least partially wrong, and when Maye hit like a grand slam and this freaking board crashed???? Lol, it wasn't that I was gonna strut around like some jerk, obviously Daniels other than when he was dinged up in November/early December played the majority of the season in God Mode, but Maye killing it just as we said he would, well, pretty annoying that the site went belly up just as that was happening (so weird that the site got shut down after 20+ years of existence, so callous in my view, and odd).
Anyway, I'm not really angry about much of anything, we hit on a franchise QB for the first time in my lifetime, I was and am ecstatic about it, especially if he can stay healthy. I'm not sure what the team should do going forward, I would use the next two drafts to hit the lines, DB and LB because the playmaking positions are so terrible in the '25 and '26 classes supposedly, so use draft capital on that, beyond RB, but even what they've done, i get it. I am so so so happy they didn't go for Diggs, whose got mental make up concerns, and is already clearly in decline. Deebo may be a bad bet long term, but he's on a short deal we can walk away from quick, a 3 year 20+ mill per deal for Diggs is something I couldn't stomach. Very glad we didn't do that, and hope we don't extend Deebo beyond a year or 2 at most (2 I would not like).
It's a weird situation, I hate that our roster is so screwed up and weak because of Ron's stupidity, but I also know that you simply can't trade Ron's stupidity for a better roster+Daniels. If Ron is even a little better drafting or managing FA's '20-'23, we aren't getting Daniels. This was our cost of a Franchise QB, a much steeper than typical one, and Peters and co seem to be making do. I'm hoping they can pull another great haul this year and next, even with the excised picks, and then can turn around and start building the rest out to supply a FRANCHISE contracted Franchise QB with cheap but great assets around him going forward in '28 and beyond. Hopefully we don't steal from any more drafts beyond '26, if they don't steal beyond the next two, I'll be largely trusting of the regime in as much as I can be. They will need the '27-'28 classes to provide cover as Daniels deal becomes ever more expensive starting in '28 with the rookie option.
Re: Draft thread
Posted: Fri Apr 18, 2025 6:09 pm
by skinsinparadise
@ The Consiglierie
I bring it up because IMO because you like to say you are working with criteria and making clinical decisions about these prospects. And sometimes you will go further than that and say you trust the numbers over anyone watching these players. The "process" beats the emotional component of the anaylsis.
But IMHO, I think your clinical process can be just as flawed and myopic as any of us who fall for a player based on watching them. And Terry to me is an example of that. And I mean this all in good spirits. We got our quirks with this stuff and just making the point that you got some, too.
And this is coming from me a dude that VOR in the old board accused of being too into stats-anayltics.
To use an analogy, it would be like me saying studies say that if someone takes 5 years to graduate high school instead of 4 -- the odds are they will be unstable in a marriage so you don't want that dude dating your daughter. But in turn you find out that the dude took the extra year in HS to better themselves. Already has a stable job. Donates their time to charity. Everyone swears how great a guy that person is. But I go, nope all of those variables don't matter -- let me stick to the one variable I care most about. The rest is noise. IMHO the rest isn't noise.
I'll start with if I can have a dollar for everytime a scout has mentioned this is a people business. It's much about reading people. That's 50% of the drill. The interviews and medicals are the most important part of the combine. The personalities of these guys aren't irrelevant sideshows. I've been following the draft forever so its not hard for me to tell the difference between what's been said about such person versus boiler plate rhetoric.
If the discussion about Terry was run of the mill, he's a good guy stuff, I'd be with you. Yawn, boring stuff. If you follow draft podcasts as much as you say you do -- then you might recall it was not run of the mill, not even close. It was off the charts, insane. Todd McShay even recently doubled down on it saying when he was at the Ohio State pro day, all people there wanted to talk to me about is Terry. Not Bosa. Not P. Campbell. Not Haskins. But wanted to talk about Terry. That popped over and over and over again. Not in a generic throwaway type of way. Work ethic off the charts. Great locker room guy. Along with explanations for why he got better and better and why he was a late bloomer.
Now granted personal attributes -- a great guy, leader, work ethic alone doesn't make the player. But it didn't stop there. He destroyed the Senior Bowl. He's not the first prospect who dominated the Senior Bowl and went on to succeed. He was destroying corners 1 on 1 among other things.
His tape also stood out and I wasn't the only one echoing that point. If that's not enough, you seem to at least sometimes care about combine metrics. How about a 4.35 40? How about almost 9.6 RAS. How about a 4.35 WR, who had 20 YPC and 700 plus yards as the deep threat target for a big time Big 10 team. Yawn? Yawn because he was a late breakout guy and Parris Campbell got more targets?
None of this is about Terry and why didn't you like him. My point is you ignored many variables to lead to a conclusion because you were stuck on other variables. You didn't seem open minded to the idea that maybe other variables matters especally if there are a bunch of them that tell a different story.
I am gathering the same principle applies to Matthew Golden? Fools gold, I guess?
And lol the only reason why am giving you some pushback is you've suggested on the ES thread back in the day, that some of us are more emotional about the process than you are about these guys. And you say it in a nice way so I got no problem with the point. I am just pushing back a little that you are a bit emotional yourself about prospects IMHO judging by our debates. You just came at it from a different angle. It's cool either way of course. I can get emotional about some prospects I like or don't like. And heck I've sometimes let that get the better of my assessements. So i am not saying my process is better or worse than anyone. It's just when I debate enough with certain people, I think I get a sense of their style. And I appreciate all of the debates, agree or disagree, its all fun for me.
The Kaleb discussion another example. I am not swearing by Kaleb the way I did for Terry. Because as I pointed out I do think personality matters and there are some questions on that front with Kaleb. But you comparing him to Brian when they are different players didn't feel that clinical to me. You clarified your point and said you think they are production wise similar. But they aren't, really. i can go tit for tat production comps between the two, they are mostly quite different.
All cool. All in fun. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying your style of how to assess these players is wrong. I got no idea. Just saying we all got our quirks with this stuff and I think you got some, too. And heck it makes the draft thread more interesting. Different styles.
Re: Draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2025 11:20 am
by The Consigliere
[/quote]Lost my post again, but I copied for copying and pasting purposes and so saved it, anyway, quoting you:
"I bring it up because IMO because you like to say you are working with criteria and making clinical decisions about these prospects. And sometimes you will go further than that and say you trust the numbers over anyone watching these players. The "process" beats the emotional component of the anaylsis.
But IMHO, I think your clinical process can be just as flawed and myopic as any of us who fall for a player based on watching them. And Terry to me is an example of that. And I mean this all in good spirits. We got our quirks with this stuff and just making the point that you got some, too.
And this is coming from me a dude that VOR in the old board accused of being too into stats-anayltics.
To use an analogy, it would be like me saying studies say that if someone takes 5 years to graduate high school instead of 4 -- the odds are they will be unstable in a marriage so you don't want that dude dating your daughter. But in turn you find out that the dude took the extra year in HS to better themselves. Already has a stable job. Donates their time to charity. Everyone swears how great a guy that person is. But I go, nope all of those variables don't matter -- let me stick to the one variable I care most about. The rest is noise. IMHO the rest isn't noise.
I'll start with if I can have a dollar for everytime a scout has mentioned this is a people business. It's much about reading people. That's 50% of the drill. The interviews and medicals are the most important part of the combine. The personalities of these guys aren't irrelevant sideshows. I've been following the draft forever so its not hard for me to tell the difference between what's been said about such person versus boiler plate rhetoric.
If the discussion about Terry was run of the mill, he's a good guy stuff, I'd be with you. Yawn, boring stuff. If you follow draft podcasts as much as you say you do -- then you might recall it was not run of the mill, not even close. It was off the charts, insane. Todd McShay even recently doubled down on it saying when he was at the Ohio State pro day, all people there wanted to talk to me about is Terry. Not Bosa. Not P. Campbell. Not Haskins. But wanted to talk about Terry. That popped over and over and over again. Not in a generic throwaway type of way. Work ethic off the charts. Great locker room guy. Along with explanations for why he got better and better and why he was a late bloomer.
Now granted personal attributes -- a great guy, leader, work ethic alone doesn't make the player. But it didn't stop there. He destroyed the Senior Bowl. He's not the first prospect who dominated the Senior Bowl and went on to succeed. He was destroying corners 1 on 1 among other things.
His tape also stood out and I wasn't the only one echoing that point. If that's not enough, you seem to at least sometimes care about combine metrics. How about a 4.35 40? How about almost 9.6 RAS. How about a 4.35 WR, who had 20 YPC and 700 plus yards as the deep threat target for a big time Big 10 team. Yawn? Yawn because he was a late breakout guy and Parris Campbell got more targets?
None of this is about Terry and why didn't you like him. My point is you ignored many variables to lead to a conclusion because you were stuck on other variables. You didn't seem open minded to the idea that maybe other variables matters especally if there are a bunch of them that tell a different story.
I am gathering the same principle applies to Matthew Golden? Fools gold, I guess?
And lol the only reason why am giving you some pushback is you've suggested on the ES thread back in the day, that some of us are more emotional about the process than you are about these guys. And you say it in a nice way so I got no problem with the point. I am just pushing back a little that you are a bit emotional yourself about prospects IMHO judging by our debates. You just came at it from a different angle. It's cool either way of course. I can get emotional about some prospects I like or don't like. And heck I've sometimes let that get the better of my assessements. So i am not saying my process is better or worse than anyone. It's just when I debate enough with certain people, I think I get a sense of their style. And I appreciate all of the debates, agree or disagree, its all fun for me.
The Kaleb discussion another example. I am not swearing by Kaleb the way I did for Terry. Because as I pointed out I do think personality matters and there are some questions on that front with Kaleb. But you comparing him to Brian when they are different players didn't feel that clinical to me. You clarified your point and said you think they are production wise similar. But they aren't, really. i can go tit for tat production comps between the two, they are mostly quite different.
All cool. All in fun. And don't get me wrong, I am not saying your style of how to assess these players is wrong. I got no idea. Just saying we all got our quirks with this stuff and I think you got some, too. And heck it makes the draft thread more interesting. Different styles.
[/quote]
Second attempt after losing first post
Not really sure if its all in fun, you really seem obsessed with my McLaurin miss from '19 for some reason. I'm far more obsessed with missing on N'Keal Harry in that draft. Thankfully I had AJ Brown as my #1 in it, and as a top 10-15 caliber first round pick in the real draft, as it helped push me to a decent share of titles I've won '22-'24, but even if I had glory with the Brown Pick, and to a lesser degree, DK Metcalf, I missed horribly on Harry, as my #2 WR (just like PFF), and PFF, good god, you want to see misses, check out their tour de force of stupidity in '19. They had McLaurin 19th (I did not have him that low), behind a who's who of misses from JJAW, to David Sills to Matt Waldman All Timer miss #1 ranked WR Hakeem Butler (WHOOPS), the NFL itself missed on him in general a gazillion times? It's not like with the hype he went top 10, no he didn't go top 10 or 20, or 25, or 50, or 75, he went 76th, after every NFL team typically picked two or three times. And as for senior bowl hype, you know who got the hype the following year? Denzel Mims, now I did climb on the Denzil Mims train that year, apparently I was a year too late on Senior Bowl relevance, except for the fact that the '21 standouts also sucked (Amari Rodgers, Eskeridge, and Josh Palmer) or injury prone burner Christian Watson in '22, or total non-entitiy Jonathan Mingo in '23 (now Jayden Reed, another standout, was the first since McLaurin to mostly hit in four years). And as for other issues like the prognosticators, I can show PFF being clueless, I can show both the espn dudes being idiots, i can show waldman being idiots, nobody escapes the NFL Draft over a long hault of classes looking like genius. If quantity of picks is the only thing that impacts hit rate, it tells you that nothing is terribly reliable as a means of evaluating.
The reality is I've looked at 250ish WR's since I started playing dynasty in '15, and I've missed on a ton: Corey Davis in '17, McLaurin in '19, Reagor, Shenault and Mims in '20, Marshall and Bateman kinda in was it '21 and plenty more. But I've also hit my grand slams with Chris Godwin in '17, Moore over Ridley in '18 along with rating Sutton, Gallup, Kirk higher than consensus but I also really liked Dae Hamilton, and Trequan Smith in '18, as I mentioned in '19, McLaurin wasn't even my biggest miss, far more consequential was having Harry #2 on my board. In '20 I hit at what mattered, having Lamb #1 overall (unlike so many including PFF who ranked Jeudy ahead of him and unlike them I also had Ruggs WAY down my board, though in fairness to him, pre-manslaughter incident, he was actually beginning to hit in '21) and as a result I had him for the first half of this decade on more than half of my dynasty teams, but I totally butchered the Reagor/Jefferson debate, again a disaster, and misranked most of the 2nd roundish guys, having Aiyuk, and Pittman way too low, and Mims and Shenault way too high (thankfully I hit on Higgins). '21 was better, but I did have a couple of clear misses (I liked Rondale and Elijah Moore, Elijah's been okay, Rondale hasn't, liked Terrace too).
I miss on guys for a lot of reasons, and I try to figure out why, and if I fundamentally need to change a big of my process as a result, or if I view the miss as an outlier bit of randomness. McLaurin went into my bin of process change, because I felt afterwards that I simply hadn't given enough weight to some of the things you've mentioned, and that I need to avoid simply writing a guy off at surface level if he has a key indicator unchecked, or a key concern box checked (breakout age for WR's for instance in both boxes), and that if a player has some reasons, like McLaurin, for being blocked in terms of reps, than I should keep in mind that could play a role, Brian Thomas was '24's version of that, covid, and a QB change combined with Nabers capturing a lot of routes that Thomas was able to run with the Jags but not with LSU etc depressed his value and ranking for me. I had Ladd higher, (Ladd's fine) but I also had the Chiefs speedster Worthy higher, that's not good.
There's a billion reasons for hitting and missing, and its an evolving process, trying to figure these guys out. I do not get why McLaurin sticks in your craw so much with me, I tend to think I must have irritated the crap out of you six years ago when I did post on him which is weird because that year the players I was actually thinking about were primarily AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, and Andy Isabella, I was barely even thinking about McLaurin (but maybe I hated on him a ton after we picked him? I do not remember, it's five rookie drafts ago) I hit big on Brown, and Metcalf, I swung and missed like a blind 4 year old on Harry and Isabella, and if that wasn't enough, just as I was celebrating my Lamb grand slam in rating him ahead of Jeudy in the dead heat of '20 as I mentioned before, I missed on Reagor vs Jefferson a few picks later which was just as bad if not worse (then again PFF had Reagor AND Shenault over Jefferson, I wasn't that bad, but having Reagor ahead by a nose for dynasty in impact was every bit as bad).
The reality here is that I've missed far worse since, and hit far more before too. McLaurin obviously was a miss, especially since he was so cheap in dynasty rookie drafts, but in the grand scheme of things, its nowhere close to as bad as my miss on harry in '19, or Reagor in '20, and if I get to feeling too bad about it, I can console myself on mega hits from nearly every year like getting Godwin right in '17, DJ Moore over Ridley right in '18 (and nearly every other guy in '18, that was a great class for me), getting Lamb and higgins right in '20 was big, but getting Aiyuk, Pittman, and Jefferson wrong was equally consequential (actually much worse if I'm being honest), in '21, I was on point, and in '22 I hit a triple with George Pickens, having him neck and neck with Wilson and London etc, I've gotten most of '23 and '24 right other than Thomas, who I didn't screw up so much as misrank in a tier with Worthy and Ladd.
If I go through my lists, there's some ugly as hell, but more pretty which is why I've been in the midst of an excellent 3 year run in dynasty ('22-'24, after a previous great run '17-'19, I did full tear downs in '20 as my rb's started hitting the age cliff), but yeah, I miss plenty, and I still miss, and I go back and try to figure out why, and my brother and people like you help too....but this is a bit much. Maybe I should just give you my rankings lol, so you can just choose more stupidity to crow about because there is, as mentioned before, an absolute ton of it like, seriously, Reagor over Jefferson, you could literally pummel me over that every draft for 1000 years and it wouldn't be enough lol. Its probably my biggest screw up ever in rankings, and the worst of it is, I actually liked them both and had them tied, but preferred Reagor by a nose on tiebreaker, so I ended up in my leagues with like 5 or 6 reagors and 1 jefferson, something you simply can't come back from in dynasty, a miss that bad sets you back years and years, if not for hitting with Lamb, and the bulk of the '21-'24 classes, probably would have scuttled my run the past 3 years.
As for Kaleb vs Johnson, I think you've just completely missed my point entirely with each post on the topic and don't really get my opinion because I have just communicated horribly. The gist of it comes down to this:
My comp is a comp in the sense of what I think they are with a bell cow's touches in terms of ceiling and floor.
I think neither of them are likely to be busts (in their draft year) but I don't think either of them EVER have or had the chance to be great either. I think in the fullness of time, if Brian Robinson got a bell cow's low end to moderate touches, he'd be a guy who capped out at about 1050 to 1200 yards on the ground, not including passing game touches (where it looks like he trumps Kaleb by a little bit, though Kaleb's last season was promising), and I think Kaleb, would likewise top out at something like 1150-1350 with bell cow touches. Is he gonna be better than Robinson? Probably, a little bit. Is he going to be a star, a guy with HUGE upside volatility, or at least good upside volatility, which is what I try to swing for? No, almost certainly not. I would project him in a best case scenario to slide in between RB12 and RB 25 in dynasty. Whereas BRob is more like RB 18-32. They aren't quite the same tier, but my comp is about my expectation of their upside, which is basically a third tier RB who'd go 5th-8th round in their prime. I see little chance and saw little chance either would carry top 25 overall ADP ever. Just don't see it, well, maybe that's not fair to Kaleb, if he landed with say, the Bills, or the Steelers, what might he become? He might actually be a 1400-1500 guy, but yeah, I think a reasonable rb, and he will remind us of the production we got from Terry Allen, peak redskins version George Rodgers and Gerald Riggs.
I think that's why you don't get what I'm getting at with the comp. I think his ceiling is fine, I think he's probably a starting RB in this league, while 2nd rounders have a huge miss rate, if he hits (probably 55/45 to 65/35), he's an average starting bell cow, a bit better than peak James Conner, but not at that Marshawn Lynch level, if he hits, in fantasy he'll be off the board somewhere in that 12th-25th zone, high end 12th, expectation 16-19, low end (bust, but otherwise like 24th-28th). That's where I'm getting at. Robinson was RB23 and RB29 the past two years in total points, and RB 22 and 24 respectively in ppg, and that's pretty close to where I'd put Kaleb in terms of expectations as a pro. He'd be higher because I think he'd get more touches, especially in the red zone, closer to where Conner, and JK Dobbins were this past year, and even Monty (a nice production comp as well), who fit in the 15th-17th area this past year in PPG.
I'm not comparing run styles, or anything else, because 95% of my football attention has been on dynasty the past 11 years, when I look at QB's/RB's/WR's/TE's I'm trying to assess their utility to my teams, and their ceilings. Kaleb isn't a guy with a huge ceiling to me from this class. Guys with that are probably Jeanty, Hampton, Henderson, Judkins, and a few of the dart throw 50th-125th selections (guys like Sampson, B. Smith, Giddens, is Ollie Gordon hidden depressed value). I just heard Hribar and Kelley or was it just Kelley, talk up Hunter out of Aubrn, it made me curious, what do you think of him? Interestingly Brugler does have Kaleb 3rd on his board. I reserve the right to be wrong about this.
The Hribar/Kelley podcast is a good one, I love when they get together....
Re: Draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2025 4:55 pm
by skinsinparadise
@The Consigliere
lol, my only beef back in that time about Terry thing was this. And I'll start with two different people on the board, like you also disliked Terry and I even remember who they are. No big deal. I never brought it up again to them. One of those people (not you) would bring it back up to me by saying they defer to me now on WRs. But while I appreciate that, its silly. Heck I loved Michael Mayer at TE. And he's been just a guy in the NFL. I can go on.
We will all get some wrong, some right. As far as WR goes, I thought Pittman might be the next Terry type WR. And I explained why at the time. Same person asked me who would I go as a non first rounder WR who is Terry like, and i picked him. He somewhat worked out but he's not as good as Terry. I thought of similar criteria and he fit that mold and stood out to me on that front.
And my one issue on the Terry drill was simply that you suggested your system was sounder and less emotion driven than mine as to the analysis. And don't get me wrong its cool for you to believe that of course. I got no problem with it. Believe in your system of course. We all do. But when we debate a new player and we go at it with different variables. I want to make the case that I go deep into it myself in my own way with plenty of clinical variables in the mix.
But I do think if you are stuck on 2-3 variables and nothing can sway you off of that -- then IMHO, I am being at least as clinical as you because I am more open minded in those cases. That's it.
And that's part of my methodolgy. It's perhaps my old research-stat professors who ingrained in me to keep an open mind as to variables colliding for or against an argument and I try to do that with the draft. It doesn't make my method more flawed. IMHO it makes me as clinical as anyone here.
As far as Kaleb, goes let me start with I am not actually 100% sold on him, ironically. I just didn't like the Brian Robinson comp. I see almost no similarities. But I admit part of my sensitivity on the topic is about arguing with other Commanders fans and reading tweets where so many of our fan base seem to globalize big backs now as Brian Robinson clones and we need to get past the idea of power backs since Brian isn't working out. To me its throwing the baby with the bath water out. For me power backs aren't the issue. Brian Robinson is the issue. He's just not good. It's not because he doesn't run fast enough. He's fast enough for his size. It's because he doesn't have the vision or creativity IMO to be a good running back and even his physiciality comes and goes.
Where I'd argue against Kaleb is three fold:
A. maturity concerns which I've heard about is a red flag
B. For a big dude, he's not that great at getting tough yards at the line of scrimmage-first level
C. He was so outside zone centric with his runs, can he adjust to a more diverse scheme?
But on the aggregate he intrigues me, mainly because of his vision-stiff arm physicality once he reaches some daylight. He's hard to bring down once he hits that 2nd level. It's for another post -- another day but am liking Tahj Brooks as sort of a poor man's version of that. Tahj isn't so much about outside zone, but he's another power back who I wish was better at getting tough yards but once he breaks free he's a handful. Tahj has soft hands, too. And is a good pass blocker. As more of a mid to late round power back, I am intrigued by Brooks. He's a patient runner but IMO sometimes too patient where he needs to just cut and run sometimes.
Judkins who you seem to like, is better than Kaleb at getting those tough yards including against stacked boxes. I don't think his vision is hot, he runs into his blocks sometimes and misses creases (IMO). And for a dude with his athleticism, I don't think he's as dangerous as he should be when he gets to that 2nd level, where he gets caught. Judkins looked like Walter Payton in his first few games last year against inferior opponents, I recall one was against Marshall where you saw him make some big runs with that speed on display. But after those games and the competition toughened up, he was mostly a singles hitter. Often a straight line runner. I like speed in my running backs but I also want some lateral zig and zag, stop and go, change tempo, showcase agility and moves in open field.
I don't mind Judkins. But I don't want him in the 2nd. I'd rather have Giddens in the 3rd or Skattebo in the forth.
I just looked up PFF's rankings. They got Judkins now in the 3rd. Skattebo, Sampson, Kaleb in the 2nd.
I am guessing Judkins goes earlier than how they have them ranked. But am with them about Skattebo, Sampson, and Kaleb ahead of Judkins. I'd rather have Giddens, too. If Harvey was younger, him too.
Judkins and Martinez among power back types is a toss up for me.
Re: Draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2025 7:22 am
by skinsinparadise
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insi ... ur-sanders
There is a scenario in which Friday night could be more interesting and active for quarterbacks than Thursday night. If fewer quarterbacks are drafted in Round 1, Rounds 2 and 3 set up to be explosive. Currently, the Browns are scheduled to hold pick No. 33, Friday night's opening selection. The Giants are next at No. 34, and the Saints are scheduled to pick No. 40 but already are making calls about trading up. In the eyes of some around the league, It's possible there could be more signal-callers selected in the first eight picks on Friday than there are in the 32 picks on Thursday.
On the other side of things, the Steelers (No. 21) are among the teams interested in moving back from their first-round slot. That list also includes the Jaguars (5), Panthers (8), 49ers (11), Falcons (15), Seahawks (18), Buccaneers (19) and Vikings (24), who currently have four picks, the fewest any team.
There has been, however, a lack of teams willing to trade up -- at least so far. Denver is one of those: The Bronco have made inquiries about moving up in Round 1, according to sources. But there aren't many others. This always could change when players start falling and teams are on the clock.
Draft weekend is also a busy time for trades of players already on rosters. Here are players on rookie contracts who could be deemed expendable:
• Will Levis, QB, Titans
• Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Giants
• Evan Neal, OL, Giants
• Jalin Hyatt, WR, Giants
• Sam Howell, QB, Seahawks
• Tyree Wilson, Edge, Raiders
• Greg Newsome II, CB, Browns
• Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars
• Odafe Oweh, Edge, Ravens
• George Pickens, WR, Steelers
• Rachaad White, RB, Bucs
• Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots
And here are veterans who could be available via trade:
• Jalen Ramsey, CB, Dolphins
• Jaire Alexander, CB, Packers
• Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons
• Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
• Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
• Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals
