Draft thread

[Brave]

[skinsinparadise]

[The Consigliere]

Follow up on Skattebo. There is a great youtube site where you can watch every play of certain players. Yesterday, I went through all of the Judkins and Skattebo plays. I am focused on that comparison because those are physical power runners.

If you are going purely on watching play after play, Skattebo looks in a different strata from Judkins. Skattebo brings it on every play. And he's not just a singles hitter. He hits plenty of doubles and has a nose for the end zone. His contact balance is insane.

I get why Judkins is higher rated because of his athletic profile which is great for his size and also Judkins is a good player. But if you purely watch these two players back to back, Skattebo to me stands out as the more physical runner and much better pass catcher. If am an opposing defense coordinator, Skattebo would give me more nightmares than Judkins. And as pass catcher, Skattebo is on the level of what Chris Thompson was. He doesn't have Thompson's speed but like Thompson you can line him up anywhere and he has soft hands and he's not an easy dude to take down in open field after the catch.

But the outliers like PFF which rank Skattebo ahead of Judkins aren't crazy to me.

The problem with Skattebo is that all signs suggest he's athletically a slug at the next level. He will have to beat the odds, Kyren Williams/Anquan Boldin style in terms of athleticism.

I would co-sign on the "will", "Determination," and "desire" angles, my concern is that he's flat out not athletic enough period for the NFL. He has an absolute litany of skills: pass, throw, run to be a swiss army knife weapon IF he was more athletic. I fear he's just not fast enough, period. His pro day suggests his real laser timed, combine 40 would have been somewhere between 4.66-4.72 which is borderline unplayable, using the time tested +.05 combine adjuster, he's officially a 4.71, which, if uninjured, is flat out horrific. It is rare the rb that can get by with that kind of issue. Which is why people wonder if he's just a gadget, short yardage guy, which is a UDFA at this level. I love the guy as a football player, but I think he's just a college football player, period, and not NFL quality. The only thing that makes me reconsider is how he can look on the field (like he's maxing literally everything there) and the explosion drills, which were 89th percentile at the combine, maybe that measurement captured how his physicality has some athleticism to it (in the broad/vertical testing).

I would agree that as fast as Judkins is on a track, you see the opposite to Skattebo on the field (who seems to play faster than he times). But I also think the evidence is, Judkins can play in this league, he tested athletic enough, and he already had his best season in the SEC as an 18-19 year old. That's a damn good sign. Skattebo was at Sac State because of these worries we have, as much as anything else.

I'm not buying, I'd rather someone else take the risk, I would pick him up immediately as a UDFA, but I imagine someone just reaches in round 3 or on day 3 for him way before they should. I pray it isn't us. I wouldn't consider using anything beyond a 7th on him.

[The Consigliere]

RB Kaleb Johnson, Iowa

Johnson didn’t quite have the athletic showing at the NFL Scouting Combine some expected, but his name still sneakily carries first-round potential simply because his tape at Iowa shows that there aren't many running backs with his combination of size and speed.

Johnson’s height (6-foot-1), weight (224 pounds), wingspan (78 1/2 inches) and hand size (9 5/8 inches) were all above the 78th percentile for the position. His 4.57-second 40-yard dash placed him in just the 46th percentile, but weight-adjusting that score makes it just fine. Still, some were expecting more, and because of that, his stock seemed to cool.

But make no mistake, this is a big, explosive back who, behind a zone-heavy blocking scheme, could be a 1,000-yard back early in his rookie contract. Teams such as the Broncos and Steelers (teams that ran a heavy amount of zone in 2024) could at least consider him on Day 1. The Commanders, who deploy more of an even split between zone and man/gap run blocking, are also an intriguing landing spot.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl ... ntent=null

My big concerns with him are athleticism (not great, again) and I don't like that he did very little until his final year, and didn't really seem involved at all in the passing game. So, not sure what we have in him, but honestly, after Jeanty, and Hampton, all the backs have issues to some extent or another. It's just two of the guys you have have multiple issues in places that would freak me out (Skattebo with unplayable athletic traits/speed, Kaleb with similar but better athleticism issues, and a really odd lack of relevance until year 3).

But yeah, after Hampton and Jeanty are gone, everyone has an issue. Trey looks like a com back, and he's old, should have come out last year, Judkins doesn't play like a 4.4 rb, Kaleb was a nobody until last fall and is not an elite athlete, Skattebo is an unplayable athlete, for me, Sampson is a seemingly boom/bust guy, Tuten's pretty small, but a freak athlete, Giddins look interesting. but yeah, it's basically a draft with 2 RB's you can draft, set it, forget it, and then everybody is scary in a different way, from the slugs (Gordon, Neal, Skattebo), to the scary athlete types (Sampson, Tuten), to the mid looking guy in K. Johnson, to the way way way too freaking old in Harvey.

No Hampton and no Jeanty means we'll have no idea, but the '26 class for now looks so god awful, they should probably pull the trigger now. My guy would be Judkins, after that either Kaleb, or trade down for Giddins, or Sampson or Tuten, give me the athlete basically, but yeah, I'm not here convinced, the silly Breece Hall rumors I would do in a second (if cheap), he's a top 5 RB level talent when healthy, mega elite and to illustrate how old RJ Harvey is, he is older than Breece Hall right now, by 9 freaking months. So yeah, if we could pry Breece Hall off of them I'd do it without a second thought.

[The Consigliere]

If I had to rank these guys right now. This is among the ones I've watched

Tier 1
1. Jeanty
2. Hampton

Tier 2
3. Henderson (purely because of the fit here not because he's my preferred RB in a vaccum)
4. Kaleb Johnson
5. Skattebo
6. Judkins.

Tier 3
7. Giddens
8. RJ Harvey
9. D. Martinez
10. Tuten
11. Sampson

(those 7 to 11, my mind can change on a dime, they are so close to me)

Tier 4
12. Croskey-Merritt
13. D. Neal
13. J. Hunter
14. B. Smith
15. Monangai
16. Etienne
17. Jordan James
18. Jaydon Blue

All of these are close to me, all different flavors.

I never mentioned Brashard Smith, but the profile is exciting as hell, and he's basically cheap as hell in draft capital and the analysts I trust, have that guy earmarked for round 3 of their dynasty drafts in all leagues. He's a sneaky good value potentially.

[The Consigliere]

I think I've settled on DJ Giddens and Skattebo as my third round RB draft crushes. Skattebo has gotten enough play here as to why.

Giddens IMO is somewhat underrated in this class. IMO he's up there with Kaleb and Judkins as prospects.

He has one of the best % of explosive runs in this class. He killed the combine as to showcasing his athleticism. He's a fun watch, stop and go abiity, elusive and fast.

Him and Brashard Smith and Tuten are the guys my analytics dynasty dudes are trying to collect in rookie drafts before the actual draft (sampson too). The view seems to be: Excellent athlete, great profile, cheap in draft capital cost to acquire. They've steered me towards a lot of sneaky great values over the years, some I got (like Aaron Jones, Kamara, both of the Bucs guys (Irving and White before him), Hubbard, Chase Brown, Ekeler, Pacheco, they told me take McCaffrey over Fournette in '17, take Chubb after Barkley in '18, steered me wrong in '19 with Miles, but were back on track with Jonathan Taylor as a top 3 RB of the past decade in '20, and CEH was fools gold, had '21 right (Etienne over Najee), had '22 right (Breece is as good as any rb around and Walker is too, had Gibbs ranked more or less even with Bijan etc)....Now they really like Smith, Tuten and Giddens as dart throws late....so I'm doing my due diligence, but I've been listening to these guys since the winter of '15/'16, and they nearly always steer me right, and when they don't, they are Bayesians, they don't suffer take lock if they are wrong....

[Brave]