Extreme Commanders

I watched a little bit of Josh Conerly Jr after I saw he was one of our 30 visits and we met with him formally at the combine. He looks really rough to me. His hands are dogshit and his functional strength is bad. Pass pro against the Ohio State dudes was him getting big boyed on anything deep they ran. He also looked a little clumsy and ran into his teammates on some of these complicated pulls. BUT he's not hopeless. His move run blocking looks fantastic and he has top notch speed for a tackle. He's got good natural agility and explosiveness, and when he's paying attention and getting off the line properly on the snap, his first steps look really good. He's one of the fastest and most fluid tackles in this class, he's just super under strength right now, he's not sharp and makes a ton of mistakes, and his hand technique and balance in pass pro look super far away. He's a big time project. Looks like a third rounder to me. The athleticism makes him worthwhile, but I would expect multiple years in development before he's capable of being a reliable starter. The first round talk on him is absolutely crazy, and that's the kind of range that would force him onto the field too early and set him up to bust.

I watched Membou too and I like him a lot more than Conerly, but he's still a very flawed prospect. He's super thick but he is tiny for a tackle, and his issues with length are going to get a lot worse in the NFL. He's also not very physical for someone who looks so compact and strong.

His balance is fantastic and his mirror speed and technique look great. He's also got consistent hands, he just doesn't have the physical length to win certain hand fights against lanky counter rushers. His anchor will likely get better but it's already pretty consistent. That describes his game as a whole to me. He's athletic and his technique and awareness are already consistent. I think he's kind of maxed out as a player, and that his ceiling isn't super high because he's just small. That's not the end of the world for a tackle. David Bakhtiari was small and he found a way to be a stud in pass pro in the NFL. I wish Membou was nastier though. The short guys who became legends all seemed to play with a major edge--London Fletcher, Aaron Donald, James Harrison. Membou is going to need that chip to dominate all of the NFL rushers that are like three inches taller than him.

GoingCommando wrote: Fri Apr 04, 2025 9:36 am

I watched Membou too and I like him a lot more than Conerly, but he's still a very flawed prospect. He's super thick but he is tiny for a tackle, and his issues with length are going to get a lot worse in the NFL. He's also not very physical for someone who looks so compact and strong.

His balance is fantastic and his mirror speed and technique look great. He's also got consistent hands, he just doesn't have the physical length to win certain hand fights against lanky counter rushers. His anchor will likely get better but it's already pretty consistent. That describes his game as a whole to me. He's athletic and his technique and awareness are already consistent. I think he's kind of maxed out as a player, and that his ceiling isn't super high because he's just small. That's not the end of the world for a tackle. David Bakhtiari was small and he found a way to be a stud in pass pro in the NFL. I wish Membou was nastier though. The short guys who became legends all seemed to play with a major edge--London Fletcher, Aaron Donald, James Harrison. Membou is going to need that chip to dominate all of the NFL rushers that are like three inches taller than him.

Conerly has received so much more publicity but I am with you that Membou is the better player right now. I feel like he could be an immediate solid starter at G but deserves his shot first at RT regardless of his length. They both are much more athletic that most of their OL counterparts and will eventually be solid wherever they land as long as they are used correctly by competent coaching (I added that last part for Rivera types

At this point unless there is a tremendous faller, I don't see A going OL with the first pick. I am just hoping the OL is addressed at least once by the mid point of day 3. We need youth in the wings both interior and at OT

Warhead36 wrote: Mon Mar 31, 2025 2:08 pm

brandies wrote: Sun Mar 30, 2025 12:08 am

Higgins is my guy this year similar to Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey this year. But we're just in a weird spot where 29 would be too early to take him, and he won't last to our 2nd rounder.

Would be the ideal pick up if we could trade down to like 35 ish.

McConkey was my #1 guy, probably of any player in any spot last year, loved him.

I don't have a WR that i love to that same extent this year. But Higgins is definitely my favorite as to the potential 2nd rounders.

6 '4, with freakish long arms. Crazy special catch radius. Really good hands. Seperates well enough. Not much of a YAC guy, just ok as a pass blocker. Good athleticism. I think he fits well as a Z Wr here.

I do like the other Iowa State WR, too. Jaylin Noel. My concern with him is the short arms and drops. But he's shifty WR with deep threat good ball tracking skills. Feisty too for a small guy.

Watching Wyatt Milum cut ups now. The WVU offense looks really basic and disjointed, and he looks really slow, with poor balance.

I'm not really sure about this OL class. I love Banks and Campbell, and I have a feeling they're going to fly off the board early. The guys behind them look pretty flawed. I think some team is going to talk themselves into Membou early too, and then that might be it for the next 40+ picks.

I did a longish post on the RBs and went into some detail but lol i got booted off so it all went away. So I'll do the much shorter version in a redo.

After the top 2 RBs for me its.

1. Henderson. Explosive. Good pass protector. Doesn't fumble. Good pass catcher who can line up outside. A pure rotational back because he's poor at breaking tackles at the line of scrimmage and versus stacked boxes.

I'd take him in the mid 2nd. I think he goes in the early 2nd.

2. Kaleb Johnson. The combine killed the buzz about him but IMO in turn it made him the most underrated back in this class. Outside zone runner with a great stiff arm and is explosive when he finds his way to the 2nd level where he can take it to the house. So so pass catcher, needs to work on pass pro.

I'd take him in the mid 2nd. I think he goes late 2nd.

3. Judkins. Singles hitter. But very good at that. Play speed doesn't match his timed speed. Good at breaking tackles at the line of scrimmage but nothing special on that front in open space. OK hands. Good pass blocker.

I'd take him in the late 2nd. I think he goes in the mid 2nd.

4. Skattebo. An animal with the ball in his his hands. Breaks tackles. Great contact balance. Lacks home run speed. Weapon in the pass game. Needs to work on pass pro. Tone setter.

I'd take him in the early 3rd. I think he goes in the late third.

The next 4 are basically tied with me depends on what flavor you want.

5. RJ Harvey. Speedy back who tries to take it to the house, maybe too much so on the outside. Good hands. Can throw the ball too so good gadget player. Breaks tackles well in open field. bad pass blocker.

I'd take him in the late third. I think he goes late 4th, partly because he's already 24.

5. Sampson. Fast but not a homerun hitter in college but could become that in the pros. Really good at making tough yards near the end zone. Feisty runner with a nasty spin move. Fumbles. Hands are just OK.

I'd take him in the late third. I think he goes mid-third.

5. Giddens: East-west runner with good stop and go ability. Gets sometimes too cute and gets stopped. Has the speed to hit homeruns. So so hands. Bad pass blocker.

I'd take him late third. I think he goes mid third.

5. Martinez: in that Judkins variety of a back. Not as consistently as physical as Judkins but has a knack for getting 6 yards or so per play. Consistent move the chains runner. So so at best hands. So so pass blocker.

I'd take him in the late third. I think he goes mid third.

5. Tuten: Like Harvey he likes to go for the home run and bounce to the outside. Really hard to take down in open space. But you can stop him at the line of scrimmage. Explosive. Just OK pass catcher. Bad pass blocker. Fumbles.

I'd take him in the late third. I think he goes late third.

Wrs. 3rd-5th round range.

Kyle Williams. I like him. A bit overhyped IMO but still good. i watched all his reps on a youtube channel and the dude was given so much cushion on every rep. Can he beat press, I got no clue. He had like 10 yards cushion on so many reps. You can say its because they respect he can burn them and defenses wanted to keep Kyle in front of them. Still. I don't know how he will do against tighter coverage in the NFL. Also, he's playing against teams like New Mexico which helps inflate his play, too.

To me his super power is YAC on the first level. He's not elusive in open field like Burden but he accelerates so quickly, and can turn 3 yards into 7 in a flash. They use him plenty in the backfield, too. I think his style fits this team well. He isn't Deebo but he would be better IMO with the ball in his hands than Dyami was last year. He's decent on the third level, going deep. But his hands are a bit inconsistent. He was better on that front as the season progressed, so that's a good trend. But i got no idea if he's good with his releases, etc since he wasn't tested on that front.

He's a bit of a projection overall as a WR but not so much if you use him in that 2024 Dyami role and he can do a better job I think than Dyami.

Tai Felton: Based on his reputation and speed I was expecting him to be this deep ball burner. I couldn't find a ton of tape to watch of him. But from what I saw and studied his stats, he's more of a first level YAC threat than a deep ball threat. He's a good punt retuner from what I saw. Good hands and accelerates well with his punts. He kind of reminds me of Dyami when I watched him. The 2024 version of Dyami. A dude who can break some good runs off of screens and on occasion threaten vertically. He had one of the highest number of screen catches in this Wr group. He's not as dynmaic with the ball in his hands as Kyle Williams -- he's more of a straight line runner and Williams acclerates faster from what I saw.

Donte Thornton. Late breakout guy and not even that big of a breakout last year. So he would drive @The Consigliere crazy. The breakout is similar to Terry's last college year. Sick YPC. Explosive. Good numbers but not great as to yardage. Freak. 6 '4, with 32 plus inch arms. And runs a 4.3. And he plays fast, too.

Poor man's Brian Thomas. About half of his yards were deep plays. 25 YPC. He's raw. But.....coming from a dude who subscribes to everything, PFF, Sharp's draft expose, you name it, i don't live and die with numbers and analytics alone. Context matters. And reading about Donte, he's a super good dude, high character. Similar to Terry. That means something to me when it comes to projecting whether a player will continue to grow.

He's a great YAC guy, too. Over 10 per reception. So if all he does is run go routes, corner routes and screens, am fine with it. 4th round-5th round, raw but I'd roll the dice, what the hell? He's a lot of fun to watch even though he's limited. And if you read some of his backstory, he's the type of dude that is fun rooting for.

Jaiyln Lane. He's a lot like Felton but a slot version. I think Felton can play Z. Lane is a slot guy. Like Felton he's a good punt returner who is a threat to take it to th house. He's dynamic on the first level where he's explosive with the ball in his hands,and has some wiggle in open field. He is in Kyle Williams league on the YAC front and is better in that department than Felton. He's a freakish athlete judging by the combine. He's not a physical guy, though. Jaiyln Noel in contrast is physical for his size. Lane not so much. He plays to his size. But he strikes me as a high floor slot guy who can be had in the 4th-5th round range. His QB play was horrible and i factor that, too.

Let me back @GoingCommando on Skattebo. I notice this RB might the most controversial when discussing backs with Commanders fans. He doesn't seem a popular choice.

Seems like the knock is:

A. Brian Robinson isn't super fast and that's the reason why he's not really that good. So why trust Skattebo or any other power back without sub 4.5 speed.

B. Players who play with ferocity in college -- that quality doesn't translate to the NFL. So the idea that he won't be denied as far as being tackled in college -- maybe that works in college but won't in the NFL with the better athletes.

So to address both points.

A. Brian Robinson is meh because his vision is subpar. And his physicality comes and goes, its not something he brought every week. Brian has his share of not wanting contact plays. Derrick Henry is slower than Brian. So is Bucky Irving. So is Kyren Williams and others. Brian's issue isn't his speed. He's fast for a dude his size. Brian is simply IMO a jag RB. And that doesn't mean that every power back is likewise a jag. It's like saying such and such classic rock song is just average, so every classic rock song is lacking. Brian's issues have nothing to do with the type of RB he is -- its purely about him IMO.

B. Playing with desire is of course something that translates to the NFL. Having that Rocky level desire where you don't want to be denied and put everything you got into every play is an intangible that seperates players. Terry has it. Jayden has it. The fact that Skattebo puts everything he has into every rep, is a great trait. And you bet IMO it bodes well to the NFL. Aside from the play, its contagious when you see players that are this level competitive and are willing to sacrifice their bodies on every play for the good of the team.

If we want to be a physical team that punishes teams -- 2020-2023 49ers style -- Skattebo fits it to a tee. Imagine a defense dealing with both Deebo and Skattebo. And doing so with Bates and Noah Brown blocking? That speaks to an identity. Remember when the 49ers came into Philly in 2024 and whipped their butts even though Philly was hot at that time? It was physicality that helped achieve that. Kyren Williams, a physical back, was a handful for the Eagles in the playoffs aside from his inopportune fumble.

I love Henderson but I suspect a dude like Skattebo especially with Deebo in the backfield would be more of a menace to a team like the Eagles in the cold months-playoffs. So while I am not married to Skattebo, I totally see a fit here.

Follow up on Skattebo. There is a great youtube site where you can watch every play of certain players. Yesterday, I went through all of the Judkins and Skattebo plays. I am focused on that comparison because those are physical power runners.

If you are going purely on watching play after play, Skattebo looks in a different strata from Judkins. Skattebo brings it on every play. And he's not just a singles hitter. He hits plenty of doubles and has a nose for the end zone. His contact balance is insane.

I get why Judkins is higher rated because of his athletic profile which is great for his size and also Judkins is a good player. But if you purely watch these two players back to back, Skattebo to me stands out as the more physical runner and much better pass catcher. If am an opposing defense coordinator, Skattebo would give me more nightmares than Judkins. And as pass catcher, Skattebo is on the level of what Chris Thompson was. He doesn't have Thompson's speed but like Thompson you can line him up anywhere and he has soft hands and he's not an easy dude to take down in open field after the catch.

But the outliers like PFF which rank Skattebo ahead of Judkins aren't crazy to me.