Sharp does the math so no need to go through it. So this is a seperate point from him (and others about the schedule difficulty) versus rest days-travel, etc. He among others believe this schedule is a major change from last year. And he's not making this point against the team. He's actually very pro this ownership and FO. He's basically saying give this team a break because its going to be much tougher than it was for them last year to acheive the same results.Thinking Skins wrote: Mon May 26, 2025 5:10 pmRight on a lot of counts. But the thing we have to dissect more is the Daniels last year almost losing. We must remember that he was a rookie QB, with a first year coach (in DC), coaching a team that was 4-13 last year, with a new OC and basically learning his style all year long. The entire team was still meshing all year long. Words like chemistry and locker room are overused but we were literally still building a locker room around a rookie QB. That's different than a team like Cincy that has had Burrow for like 5 years and knows what he is. And it is different than Cooper Rush who for all purposes is a backup QB who we should have taken to OT if not for a missed XP. Lets not forget that GREAT play to Terry.skinsinparadise wrote: Mon May 26, 2025 3:19 pmSaying Jayden Daniels is better than their QB is one thing. But saying the other teams don't have a QB is taking the point a bit far.Thinking Skins wrote: Sun May 25, 2025 7:03 pm
Once again, that a factor. But it goes into how well a team is built. How can they handle these situations. Like I said though the number one question a team faces is do they have a QB and will their QB be injured. Most of the teams we have don't have a QB. Sure they have depth elsewhere, but it's not as big of a deal because it's like it's playing Detroit who was coming of 2 weeks rest and we wiped the floor with them. They have no QB , or at least no top tier QB. Who cares about the other 21 or other 52.
The eagles did it because their other 21 are almost all pro bowlers and such it's a great situation. But that's hard to construct. And they still almost lost to us and the Rams.
We are facing Dak, Mahomes, Herbert, Hurts, Goff, Jordan Love. Among our easier ones are Tua, G. Smith, Bo Nix, Caleb, Russell Wilson.
These aren't Spencer Rattler, Trey Lance, Cooper Rush Part 2 -- all of whom beat us or almost did. It's more formidable opposition even if I did color the games completely as if these are akin to tennis matches with Jayden versus the other QB alone and nothing else really matters as to these games.
We are playing if I recall about half our games versus playoff teams. Yeah the Lions game was the highlight of the season and was a bit of an aberration in that we won decisively versus the typical last minute heroics which were needed versus good and bad teams in the home stretch.
As to the Lions game a good part of that is we did something in that game that we rarely did last season and that is create turnovers. The Lions moved the ball well against us but all the turnovers killed them. To be fair, if you felt that we almost beat the Eagles in spite of the lopsided score which indicates otherwise, it would have to be take away those turnovers and we'd have had a chance. If we are using that same logic, the Lions could say exactly the same thing.
If a team like the Saints can come one play away from beating us and probably would have beat us if Rattler played the whole game, why should we be that confident that Herbert for example couldn't do the same against us or more likely better?
QBs matter and big time of course. I was one of those who led the calvary on that point on ES saying we are limited with the guys we have including even the more celebrated QBs like Alex Smith. No great QB -- no chance. And I wanted to shoot as high as we could up the food chain to get that elite QB. Easier said than done but that was practically a mantra for me and some others. And not that it was a brilliant point. It just seemed like obvious common sense judging by what teams are constantly fighting for the ring.
And I recall you were much softer than me as to that point. I used to joke with you that you were more sold on late round QBs or UDFAs having a chance to be the guy more than anyone I debated and you could tolerate and have patience with non elite play from the QB hoping for progression from them with better circumstance, etc. The Nick Mullens, Beathard, or name a bunch of non first round QB ala Kellen Mond. So to me this is you coming full circle and very strong on the elite QB point in a way that surprises me a little.
And don't get me wrong, I haven't changed at all. I am as sold on a franchise elite QB is the ticket to football Nirvana as ever. Heck I'll go as far as saying, i think we win a SB in the near future. But I'd bet we have a better shot in the 2026-2027 season versus the 2025-2026 one. The thing about this season is we still arguably have the weakest roster of the big boy SB threat teams and the schedule is a bear. You give this FO another off season to undue the damage that Ron did to this roster and a softer schedule, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'd be headed to LA to watch my first SB in person.
Most of my arguments about people like Mond or and the like was that we wouldn't have the chances at a JD because the difference between a Mond and a Sam Darnold or a Tommy Devito and a Daniel Jones is not as great is we make it out to be. Maybe in work ethic or in the things we don't see, but in the other things they're not that different. And the real difference makers don't come around that often, definitely not every year. That's why I am generally in the favor of trading down and doing a Packers formula of just drafting a QB every year until we find one. But thats a moot point now.
If and when I get time I may do an opponent QBR (last season and career) by schedule to see how difficult it is by that metric. I am trying to get a big paper published and that, aside from work, church, and family is taking most of my time. So I don't have time for hobbies like this. Maybe I can talk to a friend who's into math and see if they want to do it for fun.
Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
·
May 5
Replying to
@SharpFootball
last year the Commanders played the #1 easiest schedule
12 games vs teams that didn't make the playoffs
most in NFL
11-1 (92%) record in those games
most wins in NFL
1-4 (20%) vs teams that made the playoffs
8-4 (67%) in one-score games
this year they have the #2 biggest increase in schedule difficulty of any team