2025 Schedule Thread

[skinsinparadise]

Once again, that a factor. But it goes into how well a team is built. How can they handle these situations. Like I said though the number one question a team faces is do they have a QB and will their QB be injured. Most of the teams we have don't have a QB. Sure they have depth elsewhere, but it's not as big of a deal because it's like it's playing Detroit who was coming of 2 weeks rest and we wiped the floor with them. They have no QB , or at least no top tier QB. Who cares about the other 21 or other 52.

The eagles did it because their other 21 are almost all pro bowlers and such it's a great situation. But that's hard to construct. And they still almost lost to us and the Rams.

Saying Jayden Daniels is better than their QB is one thing. But saying the other teams don't have a QB is taking the point a bit far.

We are facing Dak, Mahomes, Herbert, Hurts, Goff, Jordan Love. Among our easier ones are Tua, G. Smith, Bo Nix, Caleb, Russell Wilson.

These aren't Spencer Rattler, Trey Lance, Cooper Rush Part 2 -- all of whom beat us or almost did. It's more formidable opposition even if I did color the games completely as if these are akin to tennis matches with Jayden versus the other QB alone and nothing else really matters as to these games.

We are playing if I recall about half our games versus playoff teams. Yeah the Lions game was the highlight of the season and was a bit of an aberration in that we won decisively versus the typical last minute heroics which were needed versus good and bad teams in the home stretch.

As to the Lions game a good part of that is we did something in that game that we rarely did last season and that is create turnovers. The Lions moved the ball well against us but all the turnovers killed them. To be fair, if you felt that we almost beat the Eagles in spite of the lopsided score which indicates otherwise, it would have to be take away those turnovers and we'd have had a chance. If we are using that same logic, the Lions could say exactly the same thing.

If a team like the Saints can come one play away from beating us and probably would have beat us if Rattler played the whole game, why should we be that confident that Herbert for example couldn't do the same against us or more likely better?

QBs matter and big time of course. I was one of those who led the calvary on that point on ES saying we are limited with the guys we have including even the more celebrated QBs like Alex Smith. No great QB -- no chance. And I wanted to shoot as high as we could up the food chain to get that elite QB. Easier said than done but that was practically a mantra for me and some others. And not that it was a brilliant point. It just seemed like obvious common sense judging by what teams are constantly fighting for the ring.

And I recall you were much softer than me as to that point. I used to joke with you that you were more sold on late round QBs or UDFAs having a chance to be the guy more than anyone I debated and you could tolerate and have patience with non elite play from the QB hoping for progression from them with better circumstance, etc. The Nick Mullens, Beathard, or name a bunch of non first round QB ala Kellen Mond. So to me this is you coming full circle and very strong on the elite QB point in a way that surprises me a little.

And don't get me wrong, I haven't changed at all. I am as sold on a franchise elite QB is the ticket to football Nirvana as ever. Heck I'll go as far as saying, i think we win a SB in the near future. But I'd bet we have a better shot in the 2026-2027 season versus the 2025-2026 one. The thing about this season is we still arguably have the weakest roster of the big boy SB threat teams and the schedule is a bear. You give this FO another off season to undue the damage that Ron did to this roster and a softer schedule, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'd be headed to LA to watch my first SB in person.

Right on a lot of counts. But the thing we have to dissect more is the Daniels last year almost losing. We must remember that he was a rookie QB, with a first year coach (in DC), coaching a team that was 4-13 last year, with a new OC and basically learning his style all year long. The entire team was still meshing all year long. Words like chemistry and locker room are overused but we were literally still building a locker room around a rookie QB. That's different than a team like Cincy that has had Burrow for like 5 years and knows what he is. And it is different than Cooper Rush who for all purposes is a backup QB who we should have taken to OT if not for a missed XP. Lets not forget that GREAT play to Terry.

Most of my arguments about people like Mond or and the like was that we wouldn't have the chances at a JD because the difference between a Mond and a Sam Darnold or a Tommy Devito and a Daniel Jones is not as great is we make it out to be. Maybe in work ethic or in the things we don't see, but in the other things they're not that different. And the real difference makers don't come around that often, definitely not every year. That's why I am generally in the favor of trading down and doing a Packers formula of just drafting a QB every year until we find one. But thats a moot point now.

If and when I get time I may do an opponent QBR (last season and career) by schedule to see how difficult it is by that metric. I am trying to get a big paper published and that, aside from work, church, and family is taking most of my time. So I don't have time for hobbies like this. Maybe I can talk to a friend who's into math and see if they want to do it for fun.

Sharp does the math so no need to go through it. So this is a seperate point from him (and others about the schedule difficulty) versus rest days-travel, etc. He among others believe this schedule is a major change from last year. And he's not making this point against the team. He's actually very pro this ownership and FO. He's basically saying give this team a break because its going to be much tougher than it was for them last year to acheive the same results.


Warren Sharp
@SharpFootball
·
May 5
Replying to
@SharpFootball
last year the Commanders played the #1 easiest schedule

12 games vs teams that didn't make the playoffs

most in NFL

11-1 (92%) record in those games

most wins in NFL

1-4 (20%) vs teams that made the playoffs

8-4 (67%) in one-score games

this year they have the #2 biggest increase in schedule difficulty of any team

[Warhead36]

Yeah we faced some scrub QBs last year. Its much tougher this year, but we're still gonna have the better QB in 16 of the 17 games (Mahomes being the only I'd say is better).

[skinsinparadise]

Yeah we faced some scrub QBs last year. Its much tougher this year, but we're still gonna have the better QB in 16 of the 17 games (Mahomes being the only I'd say is better).

Understood but if again we match Jayden up to every Qb like the NFL works like tennis it doesn't always make him look that hot. Dudes like Cooper Rush, Spencer Rattler, Russell Wilson out scored him and some other lesser players like that took him right down to the wire. It would be like Federer being knocked out of the US Open by name that lesser player in the 2nd round and overcoming other "meh" players like that but just barely as opposed to dominating them.

I love Jayden but I think the idea that this isn't a daunting schedule because he's a half a peg to a peg better player than a bunch of these QBs when we watched them to lose or almost lose to teams with QBs who are arguably three pegs behind Jayden -- doesn't add up to me.

I get the point. The better QB often wins. But that becomes less pronouced when the opposing QB is close enough to Jayden and come at it with a better roster.

For those that push the QB tennis match concept -- how do you explain Joe Burrow and Cincy? Joe had a monster season yet the team didn't even make the post season. Joe was better than most QBs he faced so how could that happen?

We are definitely out of the woods as far as being in NFL purgatory thanks to Jayden. But I think that we've gone from the easiest schedule in the NFL to one of the toughest adds up to shrug/no biggie -- because there is no such thing as a tough schedule when you got a top QB is a very fun thought but I think it comes off over the top IMHO.

[skinsinparadise]

Logan Paulsen ironically hit the tougher schedule point in his latest podcast. Short version of his points:

A. You don't know yet if this team is an established contender. You need at least back to back seasons to showcase that.

B. Doing last minute heroics are easier against teams that aren't hot. Playing really good teams is a different animal because those teams likewise are used to winning tight games at the last moment.

C. He expects the team to be better but because of the schedule and general regression on some stats from last year -- that they won't win as many games.

As to how I feel? I frankly have no clue. I think they will be good. I'd bet like Logan on them winning less games but it wouldn't shock me either if they won 12 again. My main point is the idea that this is a much harder schedule than last year is a real point versus nonsense.

[Warhead36]

Logan Paulsen ironically hit the tougher schedule point in his latest podcast. Short version of his points:

A. You don't know yet if this team is an established contender. You need at least back to back seasons to showcase that.

B. Doing last minute heroics are easier against teams that aren't hot. Playing really good teams is a different animal because those teams likewise are used to winning tight games at the last moment.

C. He expects the team to be better but because of the schedule and general regression on some stats from last year -- that they won't win as many games.

As to how I feel? I frankly have no clue. I think they will be good. I'd bet like Logan on them winning less games but it wouldn't shock me either if they won 12 again. My main point is the idea that this is a much harder schedule than last year is a real point versus nonsense.

Those takes are very reasonable. It wouldn't shock me if we went 10-7 but actually played better football.

With that said, the close wins were mostly late in the year. We had that stretch early/mid season where we were blowing teams out. Bad teams sure, but blowing them out nonetheless.

The closer games late were all against good teams and/or division rivals (where games tend to be closer) with the exception of the Saints game, a weirdly frustrating game that should have been a complete rout (was 17-0 at halftime IIRC) but somehow Spencer Rattler came in at halftime and lit us up.

[Thinking Skins]

Ok, so this is what I've been working on. Its a look at the difficulty of the schedule by QBR Comparison. If you look at it by this metric, we have the 4th easiest schedule. Right after Buffalo, Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Now, what I did to compute this analytic, is take the entire league schedule and make educated guesses for each team as to who was going to be the starting QB for that team. I didn't assume they were going to sign anybody or trade anybody, just went with the highest QBR guy on the roster from last year and assumed that guy would win a QB battle. Teams like the Saints, the Steelers and the Giants were a problem because there was no real starter on the roster so I made an educated guess and went with it. Then there was the question of how to treat rookies, I didn't weigh rookies in the average part (the blue line) but I did weigh them in the difference part (the yellow line). I gave them a 0 right now. I may go back and give them something like a 45 or something so that its not so negative.

Anyway, what we see from this is that its like grading on a curve, teams like Buffalo, Baltimore, KC etc who have good QBs and play bad teams inflate schedules. Whereas teams with bad QBs do the opposite. That's why if you look at the Commanders QBR comparison, its a lot higher than Philly (although Philly's is good). Because Hurts isn't feared as much as Daniels.

[88Commanders00]

Just looking at schedule, I went optimistic and said 12-5.

That’s probably the best case scenario for 2025.

Realistically, we should expect a little slip back from last year. Anywhere from 9-8 to 11-6. As the nfc becomes more competitive , we could see us fallback a little and miss the playoffs this year. We could field a better team and still not be as a good as last year.

As long as we at worst finish 9-8 and no playoffs; I’ll be ok. Knowing we could go on a run in 2026.

I’d be very disappointed if we finish 8-9 or worse; barring injuries to key players which derail season.

[skinsinparadise]

Logan Paulsen ironically hit the tougher schedule point in his latest podcast. Short version of his points:

A. You don't know yet if this team is an established contender. You need at least back to back seasons to showcase that.

B. Doing last minute heroics are easier against teams that aren't hot. Playing really good teams is a different animal because those teams likewise are used to winning tight games at the last moment.

C. He expects the team to be better but because of the schedule and general regression on some stats from last year -- that they won't win as many games.

As to how I feel? I frankly have no clue. I think they will be good. I'd bet like Logan on them winning less games but it wouldn't shock me either if they won 12 again. My main point is the idea that this is a much harder schedule than last year is a real point versus nonsense.

Those takes are very reasonable. It wouldn't shock me if we went 10-7 but actually played better football.

With that said, the close wins were mostly late in the year. We had that stretch early/mid season where we were blowing teams out. Bad teams sure, but blowing them out nonetheless.

The closer games late were all against good teams and/or division rivals (where games tend to be closer) with the exception of the Saints game, a weirdly frustrating game that should have been a complete rout (was 17-0 at halftime IIRC) but somehow Spencer Rattler came in at halftime and lit us up.

Atlanta with Penix was OK but I don't know how good. The game against the Eagles got tight with them playing Pickett. The Bears were bad last year. Dallas versus Trey Lance and it wasn't like Jayden was blowing them up when he was in the game. The Saints game as we've mentioned. They just barely beat the Giants in both games. We likely would have lost to the Saints if Rattler played the whole game and also versus the Giants in game 1 if they had a healthy kicker. And plenty believe the Saints and Giants are the two worst teams in the NFL headed for this season.

Tampa was a good one, that was a legit good team. That one wasn't against a backup or against an OK to bad team.

They had by multiple metrics the easiest schedule in the NFL last year. 8 out of their 12 wins were one score games. They had 4 decisive wins.

If this was one of the teams from the past, I'd expect the usual losing season coming off a season where fortune favored us the season before including a soft schedule. Remember the Ron playoff season where we got all those breaks including playing our share of backup QBs? it was sort of like that. But granted Ron's team was just 7-9 but the idea of having break after break was similar to that season.

But....

Jayden Daniels makes it different. I agree with that. But sticking with the Jayden Daniels theme this will be one heck of a challenge to see him now do what he did last year against a seemingly tough schedule. I think he can do it. But I agree with Logan (sounds like you do as well) that they might not win as many games.

[Warhead36]

An elite QB puts your floor at 9 wins. Its basically impossible to not have at least a .500 ish record if your QB is top notch unless you're just ravaged by injuries like the 9ers last year (and I question if Purdy is really top notch I think he's more in that 2nd tier).

I mean the Bengals won 9 games with a historically bad defense and garbage OL because of Burrow.

[skinsinparadise]

Ok, so this is what I've been working on. Its a look at the difficulty of the schedule by QBR Comparison. If you look at it by this metric, we have the 4th easiest schedule. Right after Buffalo, Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Now, what I did to compute this analytic, is take the entire league schedule and make educated guesses for each team as to who was going to be the starting QB for that team. I didn't assume they were going to sign anybody or trade anybody, just went with the highest QBR guy on the roster from last year and assumed that guy would win a QB battle. Teams like the Saints, the Steelers and the Giants were a problem because there was no real starter on the roster so I made an educated guess and went with it. Then there was the question of how to treat rookies, I didn't weigh rookies in the average part (the blue line) but I did weigh them in the difference part (the yellow line). I gave them a 0 right now. I may go back and give them something like a 45 or something so that its not so negative.

Anyway, what we see from this is that its like grading on a curve, teams like Buffalo, Baltimore, KC etc who have good QBs and play bad teams inflate schedules. Whereas teams with bad QBs do the opposite. That's why if you look at the Commanders QBR comparison, its a lot higher than Philly (although Philly's is good). Because Hurts isn't feared as much as Daniels.

It would be interesting if you workshopped your theory that their schedule isn't hard on twitter-social media. You are the one outlier I've encountered on the schedule, and I digest everything I can get my hands on about this team including the schedule. But being the outlier, you might get some notice because your take is so different from everyone else.

https://www.si.com/nfl/100-bold-predict ... nfl-season
23. The Arizona Cardinals (8.5), Miami Dolphins (8.5) and Washington Commanders (9.5) will fail to surpass their Vegas-projected win totals.

These win totals, provided by BetMGM, will pay out for those wagering on the under. Washington’s merciless schedule, Miami’s hollow roster and Arizona’s trouble staying afloat in a very resurgent NFC West will contribute to what fans may consider a disappointing season on all fronts, unless of course they hedge their personal feelings with a counter wager against their teams’ success.