You seemed focused on air miles. Air miles is the gravy not the meat of the argument. As I mentioned his much larger point is rest differential. When a team has 13 days to rest for a game, and you got 6 it can matter. When you got 5 days and your opponent has 7 it can matter.Thinking Skins wrote: Sat May 24, 2025 10:12 amI'm just bringing in the factor that I think isn't being talked about enough. I think who they play is important (division) and miles traveled is also important, but QB is the most important because this is basically a one person league. Yes injuries matter, but injuries everywhere but the important position can almost always be overcome. We saw is SF that Purdy wasn't the elite QB some like me thought he was. But still he's a nice QB whose weapons make him look nice(kinda like Hurts).skinsinparadise wrote: Sat May 24, 2025 6:58 amSharp of course isn't saying the number of miles you travel is more important than what QB you play. His bigger point anyway is rest days. This team was screwed on that count. They are playing 4 teams coming off of bye weeks, the most in the league. they have the third worst rest differential in the league.Thinking Skins wrote: Fri May 23, 2025 11:06 am
I'm just saying that its a metric that needs to be conidered. Notice I didn't predict a record based on the QBs. I just said I'm not afraid of any QBs on those rosters. Look at a guy like Warren Sharp who's going around acting like miles travelled is a more important stat and I'd argue any day that who's QB of your (opponents) team is a more important metric for number of wins than miles travelled. Same for opponents win percentage. Those are flimsy, but the QB themselves are more consistent from year to year even when the teams fluctuate.
In 2021, we faced Herbert, Allen, Ryan, Mahomes, Rodgers, and Brady. All in the first 8 weeks. Those are all outside the division. That's a who's who of QBs. You remember our record? 3-6 (with a win against NY, so that really doesn't count). What I'm saying is look at the QBs we're facing to get a feel for the schedule because this is a one player league. We saw it last year when JD single handedly lifted this team to a 12-5 year.
It's a cliche just about to say its not always who you play but WHEN you play them. Considering many teams have a rest advantage over this team, and that also means it easier for them to bring guys back from injury or for them to rest and recover from injury, that matters. From an anayltical standpoint, he's found it statistically relevant. Last year the team with the worst rest differential was the 49ers. The best if I recall was the Lions. Apparently the Lions were given the best again this year.
If Logan Paulsen among others says from experience its not easy to shift every week from 1 pm, to then 4 pm to then 8 pm. Your body doesn't react the same to that. Maybe it does matter.
If they are playing arguably the three toughest divisions in football this year, includng ours, maybe it does matter.
Conversely, maybe it did matter that they played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL last year statistically speaking, traveled the least miles and had consistent 1 PM games almost every week.
You don't seem to think this is a dramatic shift. Some and apparently Vegas among them think this schedule will be a bigger challange than last year and expect them to win less games than last year.
Personally, I think the team is better than last year but I do think they will win less than 12 games. Probably 10, maybe 11. But the schedule clearly looks tough.
The one upside of a schedule like this is as Joe Gibbs said once in an interview, he liked at times a hard schedule because it prepared them for the post season.
I think we're set of 13+ wins this year. It's not gonna be a cakewalk but I can't have faith in JD and see us barely above .500
Part of my frustration with this is that Warren Sharp recommended this. So I feel like I'm arguing against him. I'm not saying he's bad or his opinion is bad, I'm just saying that there are more things to consider. Yes this (miles traveled) helps take into account injuries and a lot of things like that, but it doesn't take into account everything and that's all I'm saying. And one thing that I'm saying that it doesn't take into account is the opposing QBs.
So supposing that both teams come in healthy, that factor is null. And it becomes a question of my QB vs his defense and him vs my defense. And I'm taking JD every time.
And I'm not betting that Warren has found a way to predict injuries.
It's not about predicting injuries. It's about what team is more rested. And the way injuries creep into the discussion, its sometimes a team is banged up but with an extra week or a couple of extra days rest, said players are more likely be able to play because of that extra time of rest to heal.
How many times do we talk abot during the year that it sucks that so so can't play but heck if they had a few more days they probably could play. That's the dynamic working against us this season. Both as to our players being ready and the opponent's players being ready. And it is working against us versus some really good teams. That's the meat of Sharp's argument. That is, teams who are really helped on this and conversely teams who get screwed on it. We alas are one of the teams who were screwed on it.
I think it was Logan or maybe it was Keim, I don't recall making the point that last season was the perfect storm for the playoffs. We were relatively healthy. Had the late bye. Late in the season we had a stretch of like 5 weeks where we barely traveled at all. And played a fairly benign/easy schedule both as to opponents and had a mostly consistent 1 pm schedule for most of the season.
Aside from the Lions game, just about every game late in the season still went down to the wire. Often the last play. Heck even against Dallas and their backup QB who had nothing to play for.
And as good as Jayden is. It's not as slam dunk that this alone makes them unstoppable. I was at the New Orleans game and watched Rattler run through our defense like it was nothing. And heck if he played the whole game, we likely would have lost. It came down to one play at the end as you recall.
Cooper Rush won against us. Trey Lance almost beat us. Russell Wilson who some say is a scrub these days won against us. Caleb was a Hail Mary away from winning. And these aren't hot QBs. So we can say Jayden >> Herbert. But look if scrubs like Trey Lance and Spencer Rattler can give us a run for our money, tough to discount top 10 QBs as not having a good chance to do the same versus this team.
Don't get me wrong, it was a magical season and I enjoyed every moment. And I do think Jayden is an elite QB. And clutch. But overcoming really good teams week after week in not the best context-circumstance will be one heck of a challenge and not apples to apples to last season.
Last season was like living in San Diego, breazy, 72 degrees, perfect weather. And they did it, but still just barely week after week, but did pull it off. This season is akin to living in Chicago, 15 degrees, with cold winds in your face. Can Jayden and crew pull it off with much more adversity? Sure. But IMO it will be wildly different circumstances. Bigger challenge indeed. And Vegas isn't stupid. They like this team but don't expect a repeat record for a reason.