Draft thread

A place to talk with fellow fans and foes about the Washington Commanders.
skinsinparadise
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DWinzit wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:07 am
skinsinparadise wrote: Sun Feb 16, 2025 4:34 pm
mhd24 wrote: Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:33 pm



Nice to see you too on this forum SIP! Glad that you, GC, and some others have found your way here. I joined another forum and KDawg is on that one.

I listened to Macshay's latest podcast and he said murmurs are that Warren is going very high, and Loveland will be not long thereafter. He also said Mason Taylor (Jason Taylor's kid) could sneak back end of the first round/early 2nd, and the TE from Miami will also be in that range.

Honestly, I could see Warren going as high as 4 to NE (if they sign a viable LT like Alaric Jackson or Ronnie Stanley in FA). I still figure they will go OL though. Warren is falling past the Jets at 7 IMO. They have a clear need at TE, Glenn comes from a team that had an awesome TE, and they will go BPA IMO.

Loveland's floor is probably Indy at 14 (assuming that Warren goes earlier).
yeah id be surprised if Loveland made it to 29. Deep draft at TE but ive only watched so far the top 2.

Judging by mocks, which especially this early is iffy at best, Josh Conerly, who I haven’t watched yet, intrigues me profile wise. Simmons and Banks too but guessing they are gone. It doesnt look like a deep draft for O line so in theory get one early.

D line in theory I prefer the bigger boys who can set the edge. I expect Stewart, M. Williams to be gone. So Scourton, Landon Jackson, Sawyer intrigue me albiet i need to do a much deeper dive into all of them.

DT looks sneaky good in theory in this draft and I think its a sneaky need. Payne at 20 plus million is arguably our most overpaid player and it makes his money sign sack dance during his career year when his contract was up look even more gross in retrospect. Jonathan Allen is a try hard leader but he doesnt make enough of an impact to IMO justify his salary.

Although DT is pretty good in FA.

I’ve spent most of my time watching RBs so far. And my gut is some of the media including Logan Paulsen are wrong that the sweet spot is the third round. Dont get me wrong, it might end up true. But I dont think we can count on it in advance. I suspect a bunch go in the 2nd. So late 2nd in theory for me feels right. Was listening to Keim’s podcast with Jordan Reid from ESPN and he also though 2nd might be the sweet spot.

With Jayden’s legs as a threat, adding a great RB would likely make this running game and in turn offense unstoppable. If the idea is to beat the Eagles, IMO a running game is key. Their pass rush and secondary is too good to beat them by being a one dimensional passing team. Use RPOs and RO to freeze defenders and make it more effective by them not just worrying about Jayden carrying the ball. If they cue in on Jayden make them pay. Thats why Sampson or Henderson especially intrigue me. One cut and they can be gone.


RJ Harvey’s combine intrigues me big time. He looks fast but not quite sure how fast. Sometimes defenders chase him down. He is explosive but my one pause about him is he loves to circle to the edges as almost a default move if he doesnt see a crease inside and that style doesnt always translate to the pros. But hes a fun watch. Really good contact balance. Breaks tackles. Can get skinny in the hole if he chooses to do so. Decent hands. Potential gadget player because he played QB for years. High intangibles.

Skattebo screams being a Dan Quinn type of player sans Skattebo’s arrogance. Hes likely still there in the third round too. he strikes me as a rich man’’s Chris Rodriguez combined with hands like Ekelers. A dude you want to go to war with. Very emotional player with a lot of fight in him.

One of the reasons Brian Robinson lost me wasnt just his lack of production but also he didnt IMO play with the same zest. As an example, I can think of a play against Dallas where Robinson caught a screen and just ran out of bounds versus fighting for extra yards upfield when he saw a defender beating down on him.

His odd trash talking against the Eagles considering how poorly he played against them turned me off, too. Ditto recently telling a Lions player on social media that “its our turn” not theirs to go to the SB next year. I am not big on arrogance and trash talking but what earned Brian Robinson being the team’s trash talker?

Lol now Skattebo is a trash talker too but at least he backs it up. Power runner, tone setter, who enjoys overpowering dudes. A bowling ball of a runner with a low center of gravity with good contact balance. But he doesnt look fast. I am guessing similar speed to Rodriguez. But I dont rule him out as a possibility because of his hands. Very good pass catcher and a handful to tackle when he catches in space. Can run routes, too.

I like his brashness/attitude as a player and I think he’d be a tone setter especially in the post season. If in the passing game he wasnt anything special id rule him out for this team. And am obsessed with speed at this spot. But Id make an exception for Skattebo. And I am guessing his ability to be a dual threat - running and passing might put him in play here.

The main problem with Brian Robinson isnt that he’s a power back but IMO the issue is he’s a JAG power back. Again I prefer speed. But if they took Skattebo i’d get it.
As fun as Skattebo is, he feels too slow to me. Like you have preached in the past, this year I'd really like them to look heavily at big YAC players.

RB is in need of upgrade. With such a strong RB class it would be a Ron type move not to take advantage and draft one. Hopefully the dip in no later than the 4th round but day 2 is the best window.

Offensively I we need a T whether it is ones to take over Colemans left side or what I think they will look for is a guy that can start on the right side. I don't want Wylie out on the edge anymore. Move inside if you must and he can backup out there. I also want competition brought to the inside group. Then of course we need a WR2.

You have always been a great study of TE's. I am interested to hear your take on our TE room. Bates is a really good and needed blocker. Sinnott was everyone's big draft pick disappointment. It was expected that he would be a used a lot, lining up all over including in the backfield. Ertz played incredibly well and made a real connection with JD. If they do resign Ertz, they would almost need to keep the group unchanged. It is kind of ho-hum with no YAC guy. I don't see them drafting a TE early because they'd need them to play right off the bat and be able to both block well and become JD's best friend.

I am for speed first. And Skattebo doesn't that mold. But I can't stress enough that IMO the #1 problem with Robinson wasn't that he was a power back so those breakaway chances couldn't be exploited. IMO that was the distant #2 problem with Robinson. Not #1.

While I prefer speed, especially coming off the RPOs-ROs, Robinson's issues IMO involved lack of vision and just inconsistent oomph play. You can't be a good physical back IMO and play with inconsistent physicality. Look at what Rodriguez did when he came in against Tennessee and they in turn dominated the game. While I prefer everything being equal the speed over power flavor for RBs, especially shooting below the top guys who often have a bit of both. I don't think the flavor of Robinson was the main problem. I think the main problem was he wasn't good even within his own flavor.

I am not obsessed with timed speed for RB. Albiet I love to see the combine from the context of making sense or not of what you see without your eyes. For example, Kaleb Johnson. He's a hard guess for me. It wouldn't shock me if he ran in the 4.4's or the high 4.5's. So I want to see that sorted out. He has long-thick upper legs and it takes him a hot half a second to accelerate but then when he does, watch out.

If he runs in the 4.4's I think he has a shot to go the end of the first. I got to spend some time watching Kaleb and Hampton back to back to sort out my #2. I've watched more Kaleb than Hampton so far. I just looked it up and PFF isn't as high on Kaleb as me. They dig Sampson a lot as I do. They are very high on Skattebo, they have him ranked third.

I got to watch Henderson more. I watched him plenty in real time but haven't studied him yet. He in theory comes off perfect. He might still be there in the late 2nd but wouldn't shock me if he goes earlier. And he fits that J. Gibbs mold of a speed rotational back. He didn't strike me as shifty as Gibbs but he might be just as fast.

Back to Skattebo like I said in my post about him, he's not my top desire. I haven't really spent any time on pure power backs in this draft and there are a bunch of them --Mullings, Martinez, etc. And I am not pounding the table for him. But to my point, if they draft him, it doesn't sound crazy especially because he's one heck of a passing weapon. and if they want to be this tough-competitive team which they talk about all the time, that dude screams it.

I just wonder if they wait to the third how much their options dwindle at RB? And if so, i am open minded. But my hunch is there is going to be a run at RB in the 2nd. It will start then not the third round as so many of the media like to say will happen. But granted they are guessing as am I. Will see. But as McShay pointed out, there are 20 plus teams needing a RB. this is a special class. Intuitively, I just don't see why teams would trust other teams to just sit it out until later nd just assume they will have their pick of the litter whenever they feel like it. I get that the draft is deep at that spot but there is typically diminishing returns. We've picked plenty of RBs in the 3rd-7th round, how many of them turned out great in the last 2 decades? Alfred I guess for a season.


I think if we wait until the third we are shopping in the Neal, Harvey, Giddens, B. Smith aisle. And not that some of those guys don't intrigue me. I've already discussed some of them. But at the moment, I so much prefer to shop the higher end aisle at that spot. But like always I won't force it. Depends on who else is available.




skinsinparadise
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DWinzit wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:07 am

You have always been a great study of TE's. I am interested to hear your take on our TE room. Bates is a really good and needed blocker. Sinnott was everyone's big draft pick disappointment. It was expected that he would be a used a lot, lining up all over including in the backfield. Ertz played incredibly well and made a real connection with JD. If they do resign Ertz, they would almost need to keep the group unchanged. It is kind of ho-hum with no YAC guy. I don't see them drafting a TE early because they'd need them to play right off the bat and be able to both block well and become JD's best friend.
Thanks. Good seeing you and many others here who Ive enjoyed exchanging football thoughts for years. I haven't really had the time to rewatch any games this year to zero in on Sinnott. But I do recall my college take of him well. As a comparison. Going back to Laporta. I loved Laporta early in the process. And part of it was his seperation skills.

I did like Sinnott in a bad TE class last year but my reservation about him was his seperation skills including in short space.

Ertz while is slow is a great seperator. So the lesson for myself is to red flag seperation skills a bit more. Logan Paulsen who has rewatched the games and lol clearly knows a ton about the TE spot has said that Sinnott to his eyes hasn't been assignment sound and doesn't have Ertz's ability to get open in the seam, etc. Paulsen as always is super polite but he comes off as if he doubts Sinnott develops to anything special as a receiver.

Sinnott though definitely has moments as a blocker. I think that's his strength thus far along with being a good YAC player. My gut right now is at a minimum he won't be a bust. A blocking TE with some decent movement skills is useful. And heck as we all pointed out some TEs take longer to develop. There are some, as I mentioned the other day like Loveland who I think has the skill set to hit the ground running right away. Will see. But plenty of others don't.

Bates IMO is really solid. Good blocker. Ok hands. A bit of a clunky runner but a useful player to have.

Tommy Tremble who is a FA intrigues me some. The college version of him at least was a better version of who Bates is. I haven't followed him so much in the pros. I don't hate the idea especially battling the Eagles to have 12-13 sets Ravens style with multiple TEs who can people move.

The TE class looks good. But I wonder if we exploit it considering the needs on the trenches and the draft is so strong at edge and RB both needs of this team, I wonder if TE isn't stressed as much? I am not as worried at some in this thread can be about the slow development of this spot and the hit rate. Sinnott taking his time isn't a shocker to me. For me its a player by player thing not so much a macro take about a position and sticking with it no matter the context.
DWinzit
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skinsinparadise wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 8:20 am
DWinzit wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 7:07 am

You have always been a great study of TE's. I am interested to hear your take on our TE room. Bates is a really good and needed blocker. Sinnott was everyone's big draft pick disappointment. It was expected that he would be a used a lot, lining up all over including in the backfield. Ertz played incredibly well and made a real connection with JD. If they do resign Ertz, they would almost need to keep the group unchanged. It is kind of ho-hum with no YAC guy. I don't see them drafting a TE early because they'd need them to play right off the bat and be able to both block well and become JD's best friend.
Thanks. I haven't really had the time to rewatch any games this year to zero in on Sinnott. But I do recall my college take of him well. As a comparison. Going back to Laporta. I loved Laporta early in the process. And part of it was his seperation skills.

I did like Sinnott in a bad TE class last year but my reservation about him was his seperation skills including in short space.

Ertz while is slow is a great seperator. So the lesson for myself is to red flag seperation skills a bit more. Logan Paulsen who has rewatched the games and lol clearly knows a ton about the TE spot has said that Sinnott to his eyes hasn't been assignment sound and doesn't have Ertz's ability to get open in the seam, etc. Paulsen as always is super polite but he comes off as if he doubts Sinnott develops to anything special as a receiver.

Sinnott though definitely has moments as a blocker. I think that's his strength thus far along with being a good YAC player. My gut right now is at a minimum he won't be a bust. A blocking TE with some decent movement skills is useful. And heck as we all pointed out some TEs take longer to develop. There are some, as I mentioned the other day like Loveland who I think has the skill set to hit the ground running right away. Will see. But plenty of others don't.

Bates IMO is really solid. Good blocker. Ok hands. A bit of a clunky runner but a useful player to have.

Tommy Tremble who is a FA intrigues me some. The college version of him at least was a better version of who Bates is. I haven't followed him so much in the pros. I don't hate the idea especially battling the Eagles to have 12-13 sets Ravens style with multiple TEs who can people move.

The TE class looks good. But I wonder if we exploit it considering the needs on the trenches and the draft is so strong at edge and RB both needs of this team, I wonder if TE isn't stressed as much? I am not as worried at some in this thread can be about the slow development of this spot and the hit rate. Sinnott taking his time isn't a shocker to me. For me its a player by player thing not so much a macro take about a position and sticking with it no matter the context.
I saw Paulsens take on Sinnott. It was a good explanation for what the issue was with him other than the normal one that it takes TE's a while to learn and that he is just stuck behind Ertz. He does a good job with his breakdowns. Sadly I agree with you that Sinnott is probably not going to be a big contributor. That hurts to say because I had higher hopes than most about him.
My gut is they don't take a TE early unless they fall into a can't ignore BPA scenario. It would be nice to see a real YAC TE with blocking ability to fall into their lap.

On RB's, I would really like Henderson to fall to us in the second but not sure he will last until our second rounder.

I can't wait to see what they do early in FA. It is more exciting than other years due to what we saw what AP and complay did last year.
Warhead36
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I'm not bailing on Sinnott just yet. Look at his usage #s compared to Trey McBride's in his rookie year and they're startlingly similar. The differences are:

1. Zach Ertz got hurt in Week 10. After that McBride's usage #s skyrocketed. Kyler Murray also got hurt(more on that in a bit).

2. The Cards had a bad year in 2022. They were 4-6 when Ertz got hurt. Kyler Murray also got hurt, missed two games, came back, played another two games, then got shut down. Their season was essentially over at that point, which is when you can start forcing playing time to more young guys.

McBride's #s before Week 10 of his rookie year: 4 targets, 4 catches, 31 yards.
Sinnott's #s in 2024: 5 catches, 28 yards

After Week 10, McBride's #s: 35 targets, 26 catches, 234 yards.

Its likely we had a similar plan for Sinnott. The difference was, Ertz stayed healthy and proved to be incredibly reliable(our 2nd best pass catching target). We were also in the thick of a playoff race with a rookie QB playing at an MVP level, so we couldn't start giving young guys more meaningful snaps.

Lets see what Sinnott's got next year before we make any judgments.
DWinzit
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Oh I am far from giving up on Sinnott. There are just a number of things that have gone against him so far. I still think he is a guy that can be lined up all over and used in different ways.

I really liked him pre-draft but even I was shocked by how early they drafted him. By taking him in thee 2nd and using him as little as they did was strange
88Commanders00
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Combine is next week.
FKA Rdskns2000/88Comrade00
GoingCommando
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SIP, mhd, and DWinzit are all here!? The gang is getting back together. Now we've gotta get KDawg back and find KB. A good bunch of us have made our way here, but there are a bunch of regulars still missing. It really sucks that we can't go back and look at the old draft threads so we can see a record of the names of the regulars there to help track them down.

I went searching for you SIP when I found out that ES had been started back up. I thought I found you in the Commanders discord channel, but I'd be kind of surprised if that was you. I tried posting in the Discord draft channel maybe like two times, and let's just say the discussion wasn't as substantive and rewarding as our conversations on ES have been.
GoingCommando
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DWinzit wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 12:26 pm
Oh I am far from giving up on Sinnott. There are just a number of things that have gone against him so far. I still think he is a guy that can be lined up all over and used in different ways.

I really liked him pre-draft but even I was shocked by how early they drafted him. By taking him in thee 2nd and using him as little as they did was strange
Yeah there were a lot of headwinds in our offense for Sinnott. I think his very low usage was an "earn your stripes" year. We needed Zach Ertz to play as big a role as he did because Jayden needed a reliable and clutch middle field target, and Bates gets a lot of snaps because of his blue collar blocking.

Jayden by nature also looks to get the ball outside or down-field to receivers, so tight ends probably won't get a lot of targets in our offense unless we run into an injury situation at WR. Plus the weak tackle play in pass pro means our TEs are probably chipping/blocking a lot more than typical, and we had a good YAC threat at RB in Ekeler. Even Ertz was probably pretty far down the progression on most of our passing attempts.

Ertz is pretty much done though, so there is a real chance for Sinnott to start next year. I could also see the offense evolving to use the TE as an H and full back if Sinnott starts. No way Ertz was fast enough to play that role last season, but it could be very effective with a new look running game next year.

I liked Sinnott as a prospect and he's a hulking player that adds true size and physicality to the middle of our offense. I think he can be an important player for us next season.
skinsinparadise
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Ranking by explosive 15 yard plus runs. I can't figure out how to make that bigger.


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Last edited by skinsinparadise on Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:04 pm, edited 3 times in total.
GoingCommando
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@DCGoldPants wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2025 12:19 pm
PFN_Draft_result_1739639775521.pngI'm surprised this thread isn't full of mock drafts that posters made using https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft.

I didn't like how the board fell to me at 29. So, I moved back a few spots and picked up pick 89. Took a tackle. Maybe he's better than Coleman, and Coleman can kick inside? Maybe he can kick inside? Again, in the 2nd, didn't like my options, Henderson was BPA in a spot we needed. Then, we do need a CB, we need a WR. Both have some size in Burke and Higgins. Then finally an Edge, so I'm going to assume we also get one in FA. Then another OL with a depth guard. Another edge from Bama, and a CB who probably will play teams. Will try again later.


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This simulator is cool. The thing that it really highlights for me is how difficult it is to formulate trades. We're going to have a really difficult time moving up and down the board this year because we don't have many midround picks, and our own selections are so late in each round that they probably won't be in demand. This feels like a year where we're going to have to stay put and take whoever falls, hoping to get like three good prospects from the class.

I tried working the board with trade downs and ended up dealing with Baltimore a couple of times because they have a lot of picks from ~120-170, But I question the value of adding a bunch of picks in this range, especially in scenarios where we draft a RB early. In one case, I was able to get Omarion Hampton at our pick in the 60s, and that kind of left me out of the BPA range later on when Cam Skattebo/Phil Mafah/Ollie Gordon/Dylan Sampson all started coming off the board in the mid to late rounds.

Most of the simulations I ran had someone surprising fall to our second rounder: Omarion Hampton, Harold Fannin Jr, etc. That seems very unlikely, probably a value proposition of +20 or more. The scenarios I liked which felt a little more realistic were when I was able to move down a little bit to get in range for:

Rd 1 - Xavier Watts
Rd 2 - Andrew Mukuba
Rd 3 - Jay Higgins

That could be a transformative class for our defense, especially if we can sign someone like Khalil Mack in FA.
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