Draft thread

[The Consigliere]

Draft a road grader type guard like Ratledge in the 2nd, take Skattebo in the 4th and all of a sudden we got a Ravens like identity.

Bates, Deebo, Skattebo, Noah Brown. Sounds painful for the opponents.

If you guys recall, when the Eagles were hot in 2023, the 49ers came to Philly and bullied them and beat them good.

I do think that style plays well against Philly. Kyren Williams sans his fumble gave Philly a problem in the playoffs.

Derrick Henry is significantly faster than Skattebo, 4.54 to 4.71. Henry's speed score is 98th percentile, Skattebo's is 23rd.

I'm just not buying that he'll work like that. Passing weapon I could see, but not as the bell cow. Would love to be wrong because he'd be fun as hell but I don't see it. If we draft him, I'd be putting everything on his explosion scores, but that would still mean, maybe he gets us past the line of scrimmage and pretty consistently gets wrestled down immediately after, not sure.

I definitely feel like they will be going defense, or trade down and defense. I get the feeling the RB will be selected with our 4th, or with a pick acquired on day 2, in round 3. I have a hard time seeing them take a RB at all, before round 3, unless one we really like falls to the 45-55 zone, and we move down from 1st or up from our late 2nd.

It's weird, with Trey Henderson seemingly going in round 1, it is really hard for me to envision getting a tier 1 or tier 2 projected guy. Really feels like it would be the Sampson/Giddens cohort, except it sounds like they've been looking at Tuten, Blue and Skattebo instead.

The one thing I can't really shake is that we absolutely positively have to trade down from our first to have a good draft, and to have an adequate one, we can get away with keeping our first, if we're able to flip our 2nd into multiple early day 3 picks. Frustrating.

Skattebo ran 4.65 official. Not 4.71. Some had him in the 4.5's but the official time was 4.65, same time as Kyren Williams.

His super powers isn't just his violent running style but also his vision, hands and contact balance.

He did not run at the combine, he ran at a pro day, which is why the time gets downgraded .05 . The hand times were a wide rang if memory serves, early reports saying 4.53, to 4.57, then later the official time was 4.65 right? However for recording purposes, when comped to combine times, which are laser timed, and utilized in the exact same conditions, and w/the exact same surfaces, and laser timing for all prospects running the 40, are far more reliable historically which is why people typically add .05 to the official pro day 40's because you simply can't compare the conditions and the laser set up at Indy, to pro day's which consistently juice times.

My only confusion on Skattebo's time is regarding why the hand times were initially announced as 4.53-4.57 and then settled at 4.65, I've seen reports of 4.53-4.57, and 4.63 to 4.67. Bizarre, if the former times were correct, he'd settle at about 4.61 or 4.62, but since the 4.65 or so 4.66 became official, you then make that time 4.70 or 4.71 because of the environment change from Indy/the combine.

[The Consigliere]

Where are you getting that 4.71 40 time from Consigliere?

First and goal from the 1 yard line with 2:29 left in the third quarter against Cincinnati, Skattebo wins the edge against two keyed up and unblocked defenders. You just don't make plays like that if you're slow.

He's not Derek Henry, he's short. But he does have genuine quickness and explosiveness.

It's automatic to add .05 to any pro day 40 to compensate for the juicing that occurs in comparison to the "fair to all runners" field conditions and laser times of Indy. Tracks juice player times at pro day's quite consistently, as do generalized field conditions, as well as hand times. You don't get any of those advantages at the combine, and historically people have averaged out the combine times versus pro day times and found that there's a .05 difference on average.

I get that people don't report this in the NFL media and with beat reporters, but it is absolutely the practice to discount Pro day 40's because of this discrepancy, especially within the high stakes fantasy community, I would assume pro teams were doing the same, they'd be nuts if they weren't. My only concern with Skattebo, is that I don't understand the reports discrepancy, there's a huge difference between hand times of 4.53-4.57 and 4.63-4.67, it doesn't make sense. If the former is more accurate, he's significantly faster, but with the official time coming out as 4.65, I have to go on that.

[GoingCommando]

Here's the Skattebo 40:


He ran it on their indoor practice field, not on a track. The conditions for it probably aren't that different from Indy. This SI article says he hit 21.8 MPH on the GPS in the Utah game: https://www.si.com/college/arizonastate ... jnqk7hyqsg

If that's his top speed, that's really good given his build.

[skinsinparadise]

Draft a road grader type guard like Ratledge in the 2nd, take Skattebo in the 4th and all of a sudden we got a Ravens like identity.

Bates, Deebo, Skattebo, Noah Brown. Sounds painful for the opponents.

If you guys recall, when the Eagles were hot in 2023, the 49ers came to Philly and bullied them and beat them good.

I do think that style plays well against Philly. Kyren Williams sans his fumble gave Philly a problem in the playoffs.

You are speaking my love language with this kind of talk. I think that would be an amazing draft haul and great offensive identity. Throw Sinnott in there too. I still think he can be a really physical part of the offense too.

Another great OL fit for this is Anthony Belton from NC State. I started watching him after I saw he visited with us and I liked what I saw. He's the kind of huge, mauling tackle that would be really fun to see play next to Cosmi. NFL.com has him as a third rounder, so maybe we could make some trades to get into his draft range.

Skattebo in the fourth makes for a lot of wildly successful draft hauls for me. I think that's the potential steal of the draft, because the dude was a top five player in CFB last season, and I think he's going to end up being one of the best players from this class. Like top 15. All of this talk about him being a day 3 guy is making the value feel too good to be true with him. It kind of feels like all of the NFL lifers absolutely love him and are gushing over him, and that teams are secretly hoping he drops to them in like the fifth round as a career-making value pick. And then someone snaps him up in the second or early third and everyone is like, fine yeah, that's fair.

And I think there are some signs that they are thinking this way. Supposedly they have some interest in Pat Bryant who is the best WR blocker in this group that some compare on that front to Juan Jennings (who was one of my late round favs eons ago on the draft thread).

Keim has made it clear Tyler Booker is on their radar. Am guessing based on a trade down. I just watched a game of his. I hate his lack of ahtleticism. Definitely not in the Cosmi-Scherff mode of making 2nd level blocks. But he's a rock in pass protect. Thick player who anchored well in the game I watched. Has a mean streak. Road grades to an extent. But doesn't move that hot and his balance isn't always good. But i like the thought.

I haven't watched Belton since the Senior Bowl. But I dig the profile. Keim suggested he's (25-45 range) on a board. I am guessing he means Washington's board but he didn't flat out say it that way. So many are saying right now the mock drafts and the scouts for NFL teams are more on different pages on this draft compared to the typical draft.

[skinsinparadise]

Where are you getting that 4.71 40 time from Consigliere?

First and goal from the 1 yard line with 2:29 left in the third quarter against Cincinnati, Skattebo wins the edge against two keyed up and unblocked defenders. You just don't make plays like that if you're slow.

He's not Derek Henry, he's short. But he does have genuine quickness and explosiveness.

It's automatic to add .05 to any pro day 40 to compensate for the juicing that occurs in comparison to the "fair to all runners" field conditions and laser times of Indy. Tracks juice player times at pro day's quite consistently, as do generalized field conditions, as well as hand times. You don't get any of those advantages at the combine, and historically people have averaged out the combine times versus pro day times and found that there's a .05 difference on average.

I get that people don't report this in the NFL media and with beat reporters, but it is absolutely the practice to discount Pro day 40's because of this discrepancy, especially within the high stakes fantasy community, I would assume pro teams were doing the same, they'd be nuts if they weren't. My only concern with Skattebo, is that I don't understand the reports discrepancy, there's a huge difference between hand times of 4.53-4.57 and 4.63-4.67, it doesn't make sense. If the former is more accurate, he's significantly faster, but with the official time coming out as 4.65, I have to go on that.

For the reason you expressed, I gather that's why the 4.5's turned to 4.65. Brugler is very conservative with the times he reports, that's where I pulled it from.

[Jumbo]

If Tet McMillan drops to like 20 ish, would you trade UP for him? I doubt he will, but a McLaurin/Samuel/McMillan WR trio would be awesome.

The problem is the ammo. I don't really want to hollow out our 2026 class for anyone in this one. But that would be tempting.

Yeah, I'm very particular about context when trading picks from next year or next two etc.
I'm especially resistant to high round pillaging, and super negative about most "two #1s and more" deals as very few of those, historically, have ever paid off. You never know how your circumstances might change that makes your thinking in the moment quite questionable in hindsight.

[skinsinparadise]

Listening to Keim on Sheehan. And combining that with another radio appearance from him. If past is prologue its always relevant which names he brings up regardless of context.

Keim covers all basis and provides disclaimers that he doesn't know for sure and anything is possible. So he doesn't throw any of this around definitively or arrogantly. But if the past is prologue, what Keim is hearing has at least some relevance. Not 100% but some of it tends to go down at a minimum.

A. They want Pass rush, CB, RB. And #4 would be O line. BPA but those are their preferred spots. The pass rush can come from another spot like DT doesn't have to be edge

B. He's hinted now in multiple appearances -- he suspects Ezeiruaku, Green would be their top desires at edge. He knows some interest in Scourton, Landon Jackson. in another segment he mentioned JT and Oladejo later in the 2nd. He mentioned Stewart in a previous segment but didn't talk about him much this time.

C. In a radio appearance he again brought up Derrick Harmon. He's been brought up too many times randomly for me to think he hasn't heard something as to some interest

D. CB: Hairston, Barron, Amos. He suspects Barron is gone.

E. RB: he suspects they take one later in the draft versus early but he's not sure. Mentioned again Henderson and Tuten among some others including Kaleb Johnson.

F. He knows they want to fortify the O line. Mentioned Booker again. This team wants to build a strong O line.

[The Consigliere]

Here's the Skattebo 40:


He ran it on their indoor practice field, not on a track. The conditions for it probably aren't that different from Indy. This SI article says he hit 21.8 MPH on the GPS in the Utah game: https://www.si.com/college/arizonastate ... jnqk7hyqsg

If that's his top speed, that's really good given his build.

It doesn't matter, the Indy combine uses laser timing, and the exact same conditions for all testers. We've had decades of results to illustrate that there are clear differences that average out to about .05 overall in 40 times between players testing at the combine, and at their pro day. It's quite consistent. There's a reason players skip the combine but run the pro day and that's because it's easier to dirty the water with juiced conditions at the pro days. It's why agents often won't let their players run the combine unless they're positive at what they're likely to hit in those conditions. Skateboo may just play faster than he times, though I tend to doubt it (it would not surprise me, if he's faster in his splits, especially in his first 10 and 20 yards, those explosion #'s suggest he has burst, if not sustained high end speed to 40+ yards) sort of the opposite of Judkins, but I tend to doubt it. The expectation would be that if the hand timed 40's ranged from the low 4.6's to the mid 4.6's, he's a 4.7ish 40 guy like Keenan Allen was, when he tested injured.

He's gonna succeed or fail as a RB based upon his splits and explosion, combined with his landing spot and mental make up and health (a lot of variables). He's got a really, really small window to explode through to build a legit starting bell cow career which is why I want no part of him unless he's there in round 5 or later. Since he won't be, if GM, there's zero chance I'd draft him. Of course, maybe he's like Kyren and Arian Foster, and Keenan Allen, and Anquan Boldin and Jerry Rice, and able to turn what is a slow 40 time, into a nuanced, exquisite career in spite of it (2 of those guys were hurt when testing, 3 were not). We'll see. If he came at minimal draft capital cost, like Kyren did, I'd definitely consider it, but it seems unlikely, sounds like he's going 70-125, which is too early for me.

[skinsinparadise]

For me, having done minimal homework, I'll list a couple of the guys graded at Edge and Corner that I find interesting within that 25-100 zone, I'd like any of these guys with our first, a traded into 2nd pick, our 2nd, or a traded into 3rd or our 4th pick.

Edge:
1. James Pearce: Power and athleticism.
2. JT Tuimoloau: Never lived up to mega recruit rep, but blew up in playoffs and just sounds real interesting, maybe he's finally putting it together?
3. Scourton: Sounds like a mix of floor and ceiling talent and a guy that could be coached up to greater heights.
4. Ashton Gillote-Sounds like he'd stick, maybe as a rotational piece, has a chance to be a moderate caliber starter maybe.
5. Josaiah Stewart-Maybe a situational pass rusher, but he would add some value for obvious passing downs and would probably come in round 3/4.

Corners of Interest:
1.Jahdae Barron-Kinda sounds perfect except for the size. Maybe duplicates Sainristril?
2. Trey Amos-Don't like his age, but I do find him pretty interesting.
3. Shavon Revel-Man, the injury discount makes him look soooooo interesting.
4. Nohl Williams-He just sounds like the kind of guy Quinn would LOVE.
5. Jacob Parrish-Height's an issue but otherwise sounds great.
6. Ben Morrison-Sounds like the injuries give you a discount on a guy who was a pretty big stud as a freshman.
7. Darien Porter-Kinda sounds like draft capital will match athletic traits but not experience.

1. Pearce i think is off their board and some other teams too for character concerns but will see.

2. As for JT, 12.5 sacks is putting it together, really solid pick IMO. Not much bend or a super athlete. But brings power, energy and long arms. And can set the edge. Play maker who plays big in big games.

3. Scourton -- in that JT mode, more power than speed, with a little more juice IMO than JT. Stats under represented becuase his snap count was low compared to most. 17% Pass rush win. Can set the edge but prefer JT on that count.

4. Gillotte -- 21% pass rush win rate. Big time motor and is quick off the snap. Strong but short arms-hands.

5. Josaiah Stewart: my favorite 3rd round range pass rusher. Speed rusher off the edge. Undersized. Productive as heck. Highest pass rush win rate in this group just under 28% which is sick. Sort of the idea of a Chris Clemons if you recall him back in the day.

1. Barron. Loved watching him, so feisty at the catch point, great hands. I loved Sainstrill in the last draft, love this dude even more. He's a ball of energy. Probably better in the slot, could play some safety

2. Trey Amos. Reminds me of Carlos Rogers watching him. Solid. Not as physical as his reputation IMO. But is very solid. Sticky in coverage at times, physical at times. Would like more consistency. But high floor CB IMO.

3. Revel -- love his profile, could only find one game to watch, so not enough for me. But love the idea of a press man corner with freakish atlleticism and physicality.

4-7 haven't watched. Nohl Williams profile as man corner and ball hawk seems to fit this team. Porter is an athletic freak, ex-WR with ball skills, but I value traits more for the CB spot than any other.

[skinsinparadise]