Extreme Commanders

Tariffs were meant to be a threat to force people into these swap agreements — that’s [what’s in] the paper by Stephen Miran [Trump’s chair of the Council of Economic Advisers]. It’s kind of a “have your cake and eat it too” strategy — which Miran acknowledges.

One of the things we’ve always said made the U.S. [dollar] the reserve currency, is the transactability, the liquidity, the transparency, the rule of law and markets. So, if you’re talking about essentially going in and forcing people into non-marketable, long-term debt agreements, how does that impact the rest of the market?

Do interest rates go down or up with that? Do the people that are holding the marketable securities run away because you’re showing that the U.S. is no longer a transparent, trustworthy counterparty? It’s more like China, where you can step in at any moment and say, “You go into this agreement, or I’m going to clobber you with tariffs.”

And let’s not forget: In terms of the trade deficit, there’s a service surplus. What is the service surplus made of? Tourism, education, medical care. We export that stuff, and they’re directly attacking that. They’re directly attacking all of the sources of our service surplus.

So, what, we’re going to give up medical research, professional consulting and financial services surplus so that we can make T-shirts in the U.S.? Is that going to be good for productivity and U.S. exceptionalism? Is that going to make people want to hold the dollar more or less?

China wrote: Tue Apr 01, 2025 8:14 pm

'Claim to infamy': Economist warns Trump he's about to set historic first he'll regret

Labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards believes that President Donald Trump is poised to make history with his global trade wars, but not the kind of history he will want to be remembered for.

Writing in Bloomberg, Edwards argued that the United States economy is "plodding toward a recession" and that "this will arguably be the only recession directly caused by White House policy."

While many recessions have a complex series of causes, Edwards believes that the one threatened now will be caused solely by the chaos being set off by Trump's trade wars.

"Tariffs... both the ones levied by the administration and those put on the U.S. by its trading partners in retaliation, are paralyzing business activity and rattling consumers," she contended. "Wall Street firms are rapidly reducing their estimates for how much gross domestic product will expand. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely-followed index of the economy in real time has turned negative. The Conference Board and the University of Michigan both report steep declines in consumer confidence."

Edwards also believes that, even if Congress were to intervene to block Trump's sweeping tariffs, it may be too late to stop a recession.

Click on the link for the full article

Congress intervene? They don't have the balls to do anything in opposition to Trump.

DCranon21 wrote: Tue Apr 01, 2025 3:38 pm

Ooooffff

China wrote: Tue Apr 01, 2025 8:14 pm

'Claim to infamy': Economist warns Trump he's about to set historic first he'll regret

Labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards believes that President Donald Trump is poised to make history with his global trade wars, but not the kind of history he will want to be remembered for.

Writing in Bloomberg, Edwards argued that the United States economy is "plodding toward a recession" and that "this will arguably be the only recession directly caused by White House policy."

While many recessions have a complex series of causes, Edwards believes that the one threatened now will be caused solely by the chaos being set off by Trump's trade wars.

"Tariffs... both the ones levied by the administration and those put on the U.S. by its trading partners in retaliation, are paralyzing business activity and rattling consumers," she contended. "Wall Street firms are rapidly reducing their estimates for how much gross domestic product will expand. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely-followed index of the economy in real time has turned negative. The Conference Board and the University of Michigan both report steep declines in consumer confidence."

Edwards also believes that, even if Congress were to intervene to block Trump's sweeping tariffs, it may be too late to stop a recession.

Click on the link for the full article

Congress intervene? They don't have the balls to do anything in opposition to Trump.