Draft thread

[ACommanderNotCaptain]

This T class stinks. All of the highly regarded prospects have arm lengths below 34 inches. You're looking at a bunch of future Gs. I might take a shot at Josh Simmons because pre injury he was a top 10 type of talent, but even that is risky.

Penei Sewell has officially buried the 34 inch arm length myth. Pretty sure I remember making a post about this last offseason where something like 13 of the top 20 tackles in the NFL during the 2023 season had less than 34" arms.

Joe Thomas had somewhere around 33.5" arm length too. Outliers do exist that are great at OT. But banking on outliers happening when you draft them is really pushing your luck.

Context matters for top OT's. The list is full of guys (like Wylie) that had extra help from chips, high amount of short game plays, etc.

We're not seeing a Mike Martz offense succeed with some of these OTs. 7 stop drops would make the OTs on that list look wildly different. But OCs are supposed to scheme for the talent they have, and if they know the OT can only really succeed with situations stacked more in their favor than that's what they'll try to scheme up.

As a result though, the offensive output is lower than expected given how many OTs "win their reps". I saw a stat that if the OL play was really as good as the stats taken out of context say, then league wide scoring should be up a lot. Yet it isn't.

[brandies]

[brandies]

[zSkins]

Really...what's the point in OLs running 40s at the combine?

It is for the refs...so they can practice on how quick they have to be to be able to blow the whistle on ineligible man downfield.

[brandies]

[Warhead36]

The best value pick for us will most likely be Edge, OT(that will likely have to move inside), Hampton at RB(he could go earlier), or a WR like Ebuka or Golden.

[GoingCommando]

Joe Thomas had somewhere around 33.5" arm length too. Outliers do exist that are great at OT. But banking on outliers happening when you draft them is really pushing your luck.

13 out of 20 aren't outliers, that's a majority. And I can't agree that the success of so many high level OTs can be attributed to gimmicks when it's working for so many of them, including obviously bonafide studs like Penei Sewell. Nor can I agree that a lack of a hypothetical extreme is evidence specifically that OT success is a mirage. Getting your pocket blocked is getting your pocket blocked, and I think it's just as valid to speculate that if what OTs are doing didn't work in holistic context of offensive success, you'd see a fairly widespread regression of passing games.

I think the simplest and most likely explanation for why so many sub 34" arm OTs have been highly successful in pass pro is that arm length has been drastically overrated as a determinant for success. The bias is so extreme that we've been in a situation where the commonly accepted rule is that guys with 33" arms or less can't pass protect at all at left tackle in the NFL, and that's a rule of thumb that should be seen as absurd. There are enough examples of guys who are the dominant tackles in the college game coming in with "short" arms and continuing to dominate in the NFL that we can left that old bias go.

[DCranon21]

So does AP still trade down in this draft since he's traded the this year's 3rd to Houston?

[Warhead36]

So does AP still trade down in this draft since he's traded the this year's 3rd to Houston?

There has to be someone worth trading up for. We always have fans every year scream TRADE DOWN TRADE DOWN but there has to be someone worth moving up for. You can't point a gun at a team's head and force a trade.

We could have moved down from 2 last year, but obviously staying put and taking the superstar QB was the slam dunk choice.

Last year we were able to move down with Philly, but we gave them Cooper Dejean. I still like the trade because Sarinstil was also good, and Sinnott still has potential, but we let a division rival have a blue chipper.

Is there gonna be anyone worth moving up for at 29 in what is widely regarded as a draft class that is deep in solid starter types but lacking in true high end talent? Our best bet is to hope some team falls in love with Jaxson Dart and moves up from the 2nd round to 29 to secure him.

[The Evil Genius]

I'n that scenario, I'd think Saints at 40 would be a logical move up for Dart, especially if Browns or Giants don't take QB in Round 1. I could see the Saints wanting to grab Dart before he goes in top 3 of Round 2.

That said, I don't see Dart lasting to pick 29.