Extreme Commanders

GoingCommando wrote: Tue Apr 29, 2025 8:51 am

It looks like Dan Quinn is installing his classic Cover 3 scheme. The outside corners won't be a factor in run defense in this scheme because they're going to be way off the line. The run D will come down to the performance of the line, the linebackers, and the underneath safety/nickels/overhangs. You run an eight man box in base personnel with this scheme, and it should actually be pretty good at stopping the run considering that. We brought back Wagner and signed Will Harris to put good tacklers in our underneath zones, and we signed Javon Kinlaw and Deatrich Wise to add size to our DL. We should be better at stopping the run now.

Even the teams that run the most cover-3 today don't run it more than 50% of the time. Offenses are too good at diagnosing coverages and attacking the weakness of whatever you run. The days of sitting in 1 defense on essentially every 1st down is over. From there, the reason cover-3 is so common is it also very flexible.

Even going back to Seattle and the Legion of Boom (where Quinn sort of got his start), they ran a lot of press cover 3 which means at least 1 outside CB up at that line in press coverage.

So even teams that are running 50% of their defense as cover-3 aren't actually doing what you've described in terms of their corners 50% of the time and Seattle didn't do it a lot either. Also, they aren't doing what you are describing with their other players because a lot of cover 3 today uses a hole defender to cover up a hole in the zone (which cost you a box defender).

Even if you take first downs, if we do what you're describing on 40% of first downs, it be unusual today and probably a failure simply because at that rate teams would guess what we're and know how to attack it..

Further, it would be extremely odd in that all 3 of our CBs strengths historically have been reported as man defenders to play just a ton of zone. They've all played zone and are good at it, but man is really their strength (and there is variant of cover-3 where at least some of the CBs end up in man coverage (man cover-3) so it would be surprising if we don't do at least some of that. Realistically, I suspect that's what we'll do the most of on most passing downs.)

Lastly, the small guy in the interior of the last year DL was Newton who I expect if anything will get more snaps. Also bigger doesn't necessarily mean better against the run.

Will we be better at the run this year then last year? I suspect yes. We played a lot of light boxes last year because our corners weren't very good and we were trying to protect them. Having a full season of Lattimore and a 2nd pick invested as a CB, having Sainristil have a whole year under his belt as an NFL player, and having Quan having a full year as a safety likely make our secondary better and so we'll have to play fewer light boxes.

I also suspect a year recovering and a year as an NFL player also will make Newton better. It is also possible that the DL has been upgraded with the other additions.

But the idea that Amos is going to sit back in a deep zone and have minimal impact on the run game because we're going to play and old fashioned cover-3 a lot I suspect is at best misleading.

And if we have to limit our defense based on what he can't do, then that's not good and would be a reason for him to slip in the draft. And he's not really a top 30ish talent then.

The truth is that with how volatile defense is in today's NFL, it doesn't make sense to invest THAT much into that side of the ball. The Vikings went from dog doo doo to really good on defense last year largely because of Brian Flores's coaching and a couple unheralded at the time signings. Its hard to sustain good defense year in year out because it requires so many moving parts and one thing being off can eff you.

We're pushing hard on offense to maximize our QB. Be dominant on that side of the ball and just hope you can get by with a couple stops a game on defense and that our coaching and few good players can at least keep us in the rank 20 ish area.

The roster had so many holes because of Rivera that is impossible to fix in even two years. But we've come a long way.

Warhead36 wrote: Wed Apr 30, 2025 11:02 am

The truth is that with how volatile defense is in today's NFL, it doesn't make sense to invest THAT much into that side of the ball.

This seems exceedingly unlikely to me. Injuries or changes to QB, LT, #1 WRs and changes in OCs can and have all seriously derailed offenses at various points in time.

Looking at the correlations between ranking of points scored between '23 and '24 is 0.29. Yards gained is 0.45.

Looking at defense, points allowed is 0.44. Yards given up is 0.39.

In terms of points, defense was more repeatable. But with respect to yards, offense was more repeatable.

The results are mixed and really the differences are pretty small. They certainly don't support that there is more season-to-season variability in defense than offense.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2025-nfl ... -nfl-teams
2025 NFL Draft: Favorite pick for all 32 NFL teams'

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: CB TREY AMOS (ROUND 2, PICK 61)
The Commanders had only five picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, but they made the most of them, getting a starting-caliber outside cornerback in Trey Amos at No. 61. Amos forced 13 incompletions in 2024 with an 85.6 PFF coverage grade. He can be a starting outside cornerback, which could give the Commanders even more flexibility with Mike Sainristil.

Really hard to imagine we got anything less than a starter with this pick, which is genuinely odd. Picks in the 60 and beyond range should be less than toss ups, but he feels like a 70/30 hit as at least an adequate starting corner. So happy we got him, and he also took a ton of edge off the OT pick in round 1. Knowing we landed a likely difference maker for the defense was something I wasn't particularly expecting.

The Consiglieri81 wrote: Thu May 01, 2025 10:42 pm

Really hard to imagine we got anything less than a starter with this pick, which is genuinely odd. Picks in the 60 and beyond range should be less than toss ups, but he feels like a 70/30 hit as at least an adequate starting corner. So happy we got him, and he also took a ton of edge off the OT pick in round 1. Knowing we landed a likely difference maker for the defense was something I wasn't particularly expecting.

With the mock draft media, PFF, etc, he's easilyour most celebrated pick with many of them thinking he'd go in the late first or early 2nd at the best. Was watching Brugler's draft coverage and he loved the pick and goes he wouldn't have flinched if they took him with the late first round pick let alone at 61.

I watched him before the draft. He's IMO a rare high floor CB. Plays zone-press-man. Has decent ball skills. Has about 20% pass breakup rate in college which is borderline elite.

And as I've said it provides protection in case Lattimore is as bad as he looked last season. IMO if Lattimore sucks next season and we rode with our current crop, it doesn't bode well if a SB is the idea. We can IMO survive with this D line if need be. But the bottom could have fallen out with CB. We were 11th last year in sacks. If recall 30th in pass coverage.

JM: What are you hoping to prove to NFL general managers, coaching staffs, and scouts in attendance in Mobile?

Trey Amos: I definitely want to highlight my physicality. I’m a quick learner, I’m fast to adjust. I want to show that I can do it all.

JM: How would you describe your skill set? Self-scout your skill set for us.

Trey Amos: I’m a great press-man cornerback. I can play zone coverage as well. I can come downhill and tackle as well. You have to be a willing tackler to play the cornerback position at a high level. I showed all year long that I could tackle. I play fast and get to the ball. I’m going to try to be a ballhawk in Mobile. I want to make plays.

JM: You talked about playing press-man and zone. Is there one you especially thrive in?

Trey Amos: I love playing press-man coverage. I also like getting into those zones and playing with my eyes, reading the quarterback. I can react to what’s going on in zone coverage.

JM: We’ve seen your instincts on tape in zone coverage. You had 16 pass breakups and a couple interceptions. That ball production is special.

Trey Amos: It came with a lot of practice. My defensive back coach Bryan Brown and our assistant coach Pete Golding, they harped on ball production. I try to make plays, and they put me in the best position to do so. I locate the ball. All of that came in practice, and it started during spring ball last year. We harped on it. The hard work paid off.

JM: I love that. Would you compare yourself to any cornerbacks in the league currently? Anybody you enjoy studying and learning from?

Trey Amos: I love watching Denzel Ward and Jalen Ramsey. I’ve watched a little Carlton Davis as well. I love watching slot cornerbacks as well. I like Brian Branch a lot. There’s a few more. I watch a lot of tape.

I even watch college tape. I’m always trying to add to my game. I watch quarterbacks and safeties, and all types of coverages, off-man included. You need to be able to play off-man at the next level.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2025/01/20/ ... -nfl-draft