Draft thread

[Warhead36]

Our 2nd round pick is a rough spot for a RB. All the real good ones are probably gonna be taken, so we'd be reaching for guys who are more 3rd/4th round types. The money spot would be to trade down from 29 to like late 30s/early 40s if we want someone like Johnson or Henderson. 29 is obviously way too early but I don't think either lasts to the 60s. The best value then is probably someone like Tuten in the 4th round.

[The Consigliere]

@The Consigliere

lol, my only beef back in that time about Terry thing was this. And I'll start with two different people on the board, like you also disliked Terry and I even remember who they are. No big deal. I never brought it up again to them. One of those people (not you) would bring it back up to me by saying they defer to me now on WRs. But while I appreciate that, its silly. Heck I loved Michael Mayer at TE. And he's been just a guy in the NFL. I can go on.

We will all get some wrong, some right. As far as WR goes, I thought Pittman might be the next Terry type WR. And I explained why at the time. Same person asked me who would I go as a non first rounder WR who is Terry like, and i picked him. He somewhat worked out but he's not as good as Terry. I thought of similar criteria and he fit that mold and stood out to me on that front.

And my one issue on the Terry drill was simply that you suggested your system was sounder and less emotion driven than mine as to the analysis. And don't get me wrong its cool for you to believe that of course. I got no problem with it. Believe in your system of course. We all do. But when we debate a new player and we go at it with different variables. I want to make the case that I go deep into it myself in my own way with plenty of clinical variables in the mix.

But I do think if you are stuck on 2-3 variables and nothing can sway you off of that -- then IMHO, I am being at least as clinical as you because I am more open minded in those cases. That's it. And that's part of my methodolgy. It's perhaps my old research-stat professors who ingrained in me to keep an open mind as to variables colliding for or against an argument and I try to do that with the draft. It doesn't make my method more flawed. IMHO it makes me as clinical as anyone here.

As far as Kaleb, goes let me start with I am not actually 100% sold on him, ironically. I just didn't like the Brian Robinson comp. I see almost no similarities. But I admit part of my sensitivity on the topic is about arguing with other Commanders fans and reading tweets where so many of our fan base seem to globalize big backs now as Brian Robinson clones and we need to get past the idea of power backs since Brian isn't working out. To me its throwing the baby with the bath water out. For me power backs aren't the issue. Brian Robinson is the issue. He's just not good. It's not because he doesn't run fast enough. He's fast enough for his size. It's because he doesn't have the vision or creativity IMO to be a good running back and even his physiciality comes and goes.

Where I'd argue against Kaleb is three fold:
A. maturity concerns which I've heard about is a red flag
B. For a big dude, he's not that great at getting tough yards at the line of scrimmage-first level
C. He was so outside zone centric with his runs, can he adjust to a more diverse scheme?

But on the aggregate he intrigues me, mainly because of his vision-stiff arm physicality once he reaches some daylight. He's hard to bring down once he hits that 2nd level. It's for another post -- another day but am liking Tahj Brooks as sort of a poor man's version of that. Tahj isn't so much about outside zone, but he's another power back who I wish was better at getting tough yards but once he breaks free he's a handful. Tahj has soft hands, too. And is a good pass blocker. As more of a mid to late round power back, I am intrigued by Brooks. He's a patient runner but IMO sometimes too patient where he needs to just cut and run sometimes.

Judkins who you seem to like, is better than Kaleb at getting those tough yards including against stacked boxes. I don't think his vision is hot, he runs into his blocks sometimes and misses creases (IMO). And for a dude with his athleticism, I don't think he's as dangerous as he should be when he gets to that 2nd level, where he gets caught. Judkins looked like Walter Payton in his first few games last year against inferior opponents, I recall one was against Marshall where you saw him make some big runs with that speed on display. But after those games and the competition toughened up, he was mostly a singles hitter. Often a straight line runner. I like speed in my running backs but I also want some lateral zig and zag, stop and go, change tempo, showcase agility and moves in open field.

I don't mind Judkins. But I don't want him in the 2nd. I'd rather have Giddens in the 3rd or Skattebo in the forth.

I just looked up PFF's rankings. They got Judkins now in the 3rd. Skattebo, Sampson, Kaleb in the 2nd.

I am guessing Judkins goes earlier than how they have them ranked. But am with them about Skattebo, Sampson, and Kaleb ahead of Judkins. I'd rather have Giddens, too. If Harvey was younger, him too.

Judkins and Martinez among power back types is a toss up for me.

On Terry: I don't think you entirely get why I was off of him. It wasn't one thing, it was basically that when I'm drafting WR's I have a bunch of boxes to check, be they early breakout age, to athleticism, to where they played, to what the tape people say, to production #'s overall, to production numbers at 19-21, to age of draftee etc. My problem with Terry is that he checked none of the boxes I cared about. It wasn't simply one or two or three, it was essentially all of them. The only boxes he checked were athleticism, which to this point has proven to be largely irrelevant to WR hit rate beyond making sure they're at some bare minimum of athletic thresholds, and with the coaches and senior bowl stuff, that's basically anecdotal evidence for me, and if I have a bias, it's definitely on that. I've heard coach speak out the ear for decades, and I've gone from being advantaged by how much I ignore it, to being disadvantaged to the degree I ignore it, which is one of those things, not Terry specific, that I've basically pulled back from the last 2-3 years. You, my brother with his obssessively overemphasizing coach speak and news updates from sites etc, have slowly gotten me to move more towards: give it a hearing, don't 100% ignore, but do I take it seriously? Not really, I just pay attention, and if the crumbs start tickling my awareness at a trend, I pay more attention, but otherwise I don't.

My big lesson with Terry was that the buckets I use to evaluate guys, aren't enough, that I need to actually give a fair hearing to what people say in the building AND to the players particular individual situation. Being blocked is a real thing, especially at an elite, national title contender like a McLaurin at Ohio State, or a Brian Thomas at LSU or whatever (even if that didn't come close to happening), and so at this point, I weight tape grinders a bit more than I did six years ago, I'd say, where I valued what they said to the tune of about 5-10% of my eval in '19, it's moved to 20-25% now, and now I do my best, time permitting, to cross check guys after I have the profile set up, w/their situation, w/what people who worked with them etc, especially the mental make up piece, which is always underrated.

I still missed at him, but I've been evaluating WR's for so many decades, he's just a small piece, and a reminder, to dig deeper, engage in metacognition, reflect, and change up things when I made a process error. I think Terry was both an outlier, and to a degree a process error on my part.

The Brian Robinson bit is largely, or maybe 100% me being lazy with my language and explanation. Sometimes I just don't convey what I actually mean and the diction i use can make it confusing. You get what I mean right now, and there's even another part where you still don't lol, because I actually ended up really liking what we got out of Brian Robinson considering what his profile looked like at the time, and the draft capital used. I HATED that draft pick, it seemed like yet another example of us drafting the Alabama Helmet, instead of talent that made sense and he seemed absolute a floor pick. HATED it. But in the end, for a guy picked at nearly slot 100, he was a perfectly adequate stop gap RB starter for parts of 3 seasons, at very little draft capital cost, and in '23 at least, hit his ceiling, and zoomed over it in terms of RB efficency. He ended up quite solid. There were better backs after him, selected, but a ton of busts too, and he was just fine. In terms of Kaleb, I already kind of explained my process, but its basically that Brian Robinson's production as a 200-250 carry bell cow, is what I tend to think Kaleb would produce. I don't expect high end Breece Hall, or Bijan, or Jahmyr etc I expect a solid to above average starter, and that's it, which is what Brian Robinson was, for the most part, when he got enough touches, in a horrendous offense with a terrible OL (basically 22nd-24th in PPG, not bad considering we had 1 WR, no TE's, a bad OL, and horrible QB play for 2 of his 3 seasons, and not much better beyond QB in his year 3 with us).

It will be interesting to see where things play out at RB this year, because my rankings are almost totally opposite of yours, beyond, it seems like agreement at the top, and with Giddens who we both seem to like. I really, really want no part of Skattebo in addition to everything else.

For now, my board for dynasty is:
1. A. Jeanty
Tier Break
2. O. Hampton
Tier Break
3. Q. Judkins
4. Trey Henderson
5. Kaleb Johnson
Tier Break
6. Dylan Sampson
7. DJ Giddens
8. Brashard Smith

There's a bunch of guys after that....
Skateboo
Neal
Harvey
Tuten
Gordon
Martinez
Blue

who I don't know how to rank, so there will be a ton of reshuffling for me. My deadline to figuring this out is May 31st, so I have plenty more time, but for us and our interests, I'd want Judkins, Henderson or Johnson in round 2, or in round 3, Sampson or Giddens. Brashard probably won't go until 4th-6th so where I rank him is immaterial, in dynasty rookie drafts I can wait until round 3 or 4, way after 10-15 guys are gone who I have ranked behind him (or just a touch ahead), and he's a part of a pile that would be satellite backs, or dart throw hail mary prospects, more likely to be straight misses than hits. I would not draft Skateboo at all in terms of his current dynasty cost (late first to mid 2nd) because he's one of those guys that wouldn't surprise me if fans think he's going 2nd round, and he goes late 5th or 6th. We'll see though. I have no idea. It does feel like a 5 RB class in terms of potential bell cows, and then a pile of dart throw potential bell cows, mixed with pure satellite back types.

[The Consigliere]

Our 2nd round pick is a rough spot for a RB. All the real good ones are probably gonna be taken, so we'd be reaching for guys who are more 3rd/4th round types. The money spot would be to trade down from 29 to like late 30s/early 40s if we want someone like Johnson or Henderson. 29 is obviously way too early but I don't think either lasts to the 60s. The best value then is probably someone like Tuten in the 4th round.

I think they will just grab a CB, Edge, DT or OL with our first, or trade down and do the same. I think they're gonna look at RB in round 3 (via trade down) or 4. Like you, I just don't think it makes sense to use a late 2nd on a RB in this class, and 29th is probably too costly in terms of draft capital. If Hampton hadn't rocketed into that 15-25 zone, I maybe could see it, but he has, nobody seems to think he'll last past the chargers. So for me anyway, I'd trade down in round 2, or into round from 3 from 2, and then consider it. The Sampsons, Giddens etc should be there in the 60-90 zone, that's who i'd target. I don't think they're taking who I want though.

[The Consigliere]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insi ... ur-sanders

There is a scenario in which Friday night could be more interesting and active for quarterbacks than Thursday night. If fewer quarterbacks are drafted in Round 1, Rounds 2 and 3 set up to be explosive. Currently, the Browns are scheduled to hold pick No. 33, Friday night's opening selection. The Giants are next at No. 34, and the Saints are scheduled to pick No. 40 but already are making calls about trading up. In the eyes of some around the league, It's possible there could be more signal-callers selected in the first eight picks on Friday than there are in the 32 picks on Thursday.

On the other side of things, the Steelers (No. 21) are among the teams interested in moving back from their first-round slot. That list also includes the Jaguars (5), Panthers (8), 49ers (11), Falcons (15), Seahawks (18), Buccaneers (19) and Vikings (24), who currently have four picks, the fewest any team.

There has been, however, a lack of teams willing to trade up -- at least so far. Denver is one of those: The Bronco have made inquiries about moving up in Round 1, according to sources. But there aren't many others. This always could change when players start falling and teams are on the clock.

Draft weekend is also a busy time for trades of players already on rosters. Here are players on rookie contracts who could be deemed expendable:

• Will Levis, QB, Titans
• Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Giants
• Evan Neal, OL, Giants
• Jalin Hyatt, WR, Giants
• Sam Howell, QB, Seahawks
• Tyree Wilson, Edge, Raiders
• Greg Newsome II, CB, Browns
• Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars
• Odafe Oweh, Edge, Ravens
• George Pickens, WR, Steelers
• Rachaad White, RB, Bucs
• Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots

And here are veterans who could be available via trade:


• Jalen Ramsey, CB, Dolphins
• Jaire Alexander, CB, Packers
• Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons
• Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
• Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
• Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals

Forgot to mention, love the Fusue tweets. He's an absolutely fearless iconoclast that has nailed an unusually high level of day 2 and day 3 prospects, rating them far above consensus, and nailed a whole bunch of favored prospects as busts early. He's an important guy to have in your feed simply because he is remarkably effective when it comes to outlier takes. Sometimes he's just nuts and wrong, but I've been following him for seven or eight years and he's been fantastic.

[Jumbo]

I pretty much have boiled it down to guys who have the coolest names or dress super fly. Also, hair can matter.

[skinsinparadise]

Washington Commanders
A year ago, the Washington Commanders got smoked for taking draft prospects, en masse, to a TopGolf for their 30 visits. Fair to say it worked out, with Washington bringing home a bumper crop of picks a couple weeks later led by Jayden Daniels, Mike Sainristil, Brandon Coleman and Luke McCaffrey. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that Washington followed the practice, which came from GM Adam Peters’s 49er roots, with a group of about 20 players again this year—and it turns out they weren’t alone.

The Raiders, under new coach Pete Carroll and GM John Spytek, took a big crew to TopGolf in Vegas, with Jeanty, Michigan DT Mason Graham, Campbell, Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, Texas QB Quinn Ewers and Ohio State QB Will Howard all part of the group.

My understanding is Howard and Ewers were the two best golfers on hand.

The Raiders got the same stuff out of it as the Commanders. It puts the guys in a more relaxed environment where a team can see them being themselves while also getting a shot at seeing leadership and competitiveness in how they interact with one another—which is important since the makeup of a rookie class can affect how they develop together.


Of course, no one’s reinventing the wheel. But doing things this way seems to be, at least in my mind, a lot more effective than people wanted to think it was last year.

https://www.si.com/nfl/takeaways-shedeu ... -nfl-draft

[skinsinparadise]

I pretty much have boiled it down to guys who have the coolest names or dress super fly. Also, hair can matter.

So Skattebo it is.

[skinsinparadise]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/insi ... ur-sanders

There is a scenario in which Friday night could be more interesting and active for quarterbacks than Thursday night. If fewer quarterbacks are drafted in Round 1, Rounds 2 and 3 set up to be explosive. Currently, the Browns are scheduled to hold pick No. 33, Friday night's opening selection. The Giants are next at No. 34, and the Saints are scheduled to pick No. 40 but already are making calls about trading up. In the eyes of some around the league, It's possible there could be more signal-callers selected in the first eight picks on Friday than there are in the 32 picks on Thursday.

On the other side of things, the Steelers (No. 21) are among the teams interested in moving back from their first-round slot. That list also includes the Jaguars (5), Panthers (8), 49ers (11), Falcons (15), Seahawks (18), Buccaneers (19) and Vikings (24), who currently have four picks, the fewest any team.

There has been, however, a lack of teams willing to trade up -- at least so far. Denver is one of those: The Bronco have made inquiries about moving up in Round 1, according to sources. But there aren't many others. This always could change when players start falling and teams are on the clock.

Draft weekend is also a busy time for trades of players already on rosters. Here are players on rookie contracts who could be deemed expendable:

• Will Levis, QB, Titans
• Treylon Burks, WR, Titans
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Giants
• Evan Neal, OL, Giants
• Jalin Hyatt, WR, Giants
• Sam Howell, QB, Seahawks
• Tyree Wilson, Edge, Raiders
• Greg Newsome II, CB, Browns
• Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars
• Odafe Oweh, Edge, Ravens
• George Pickens, WR, Steelers
• Rachaad White, RB, Bucs
• Kayshon Boutte, WR, Patriots

And here are veterans who could be available via trade:


• Jalen Ramsey, CB, Dolphins
• Jaire Alexander, CB, Packers
• Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons
• Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles
• Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
• Trey Hendrickson, Edge, Bengals

Forgot to mention, love the Fusue tweets. He's an absolutely fearless iconoclast that has nailed an unusually high level of day 2 and day 3 prospects, rating them far above consensus, and nailed a whole bunch of favored prospects as busts early. He's an important guy to have in your feed simply because he is remarkably effective when it comes to outlier takes. Sometimes he's just nuts and wrong, but I've been following him for seven or eight years and he's been fantastic.

This is his final ranking. Interesting that he likes R. Sanders. He has been a hard RB for me to figure out. Great RAS. Runs well for his size but at times looks slow when watching him, has one of the worst yard per carry numbers in this group, but really good pass catching numbers. He's an enigma to me but I'll rewatch him.

[GoingCommando]

If you have 35 minutes to spare, this is a cut up of every Kaleb Johnson catch and carry from 2024:

[GoingCommando]

My take on Johnson is that he is the spitting image of Joe Mixon. Runs exactly the same way IMO. Upright, decisive, hammers the PoA very early in the run. Easy speed to bounce it outside. Surprisingly good hands. I think his vision and creativity are mediocre, but he runs with such decisiveness and speed that the contact point is very rarely behind the line of scrimmage. But if you bottle up his first read crease then that run isn't going anywhere. Coaches are going to like him though because he stays on schedule and presses the line of scrimmage so hard. Tuten is kind of like a smaller, weaker, but faster version of him.

I think he's a second round value. He's a good back, but not special. Skattebo is special IMO, and I would rank him ahead of Johnson. I definitely love the value of Skattebo in the third or fourth over Johnson in the second, but I think Johnson would still be a good pick in the second. I think we want to transition to a more zone heavy run game and he'd be an obvious and clean fit for this scheme.

To me Skattebo = Ekeler with more strength and the capacity for heavy usage, and I would rather have that than a slightly slower Joe Mixon.