Draft thread

[Warhead36]

Kay Adams while interviewing Peters told him she wants them to take a RB and his response was like "in the first round!?" and just that reaction coupled with his facial expression gives away that there is basically no chance they take a RB at 29.

[rvaskins]

Kay Adams while interviewing Peters told him she wants them to take a RB and his response was like "in the first round!?" and just that reaction coupled with his facial expression gives away that there is basically no chance they take a RB at 29.

I think a running back in the first round would be a major mistake. Edge or CB is what we should go after. You can get a RB in the later rounds.

[GoingCommando]

Kay Adams while interviewing Peters told him she wants them to take a RB and his response was like "in the first round!?" and just that reaction coupled with his facial expression gives away that there is basically no chance they take a RB at 29.

Skattebo confirmed?

[Brave]

Kay Adams while interviewing Peters told him she wants them to take a RB and his response was like "in the first round!?" and just that reaction coupled with his facial expression gives away that there is basically no chance they take a RB at 29.

Skattebo confirmed?

I hope not lol

[Warhead36]

Looking at last year's draft, one thing I noticed is that AP likes older and more experienced prospects.

Seven of our nine picks were 23 at the time of the draft (although McCaffery turned 23 like three weeks before).

Only Sinnott and Newton were 22 when drafted, with both turning 23 within a few months of the draft and before the season started.

Essentially, every single one of our rookies started their rookie season at age 23. Quite a few of them turned 24 before season's end. Dominique Hampton will be 25(!) before the start of his second season.

So when looking at prospects, if anyone that is mocked to us is in that age 23 range, its more likely they're the pick.

Prospects that fit this age model(that will realistically likely be available at our pick):

Emeka Egbuka (23 in October)
Xavier Watts (24 in November)
Shavon Revel (23 in April)
Trey Amos (turned 23 in March)
Jahdae Barron (24 in December but not sure he'll be there)

[The Consigliere]

Yeah I don't think Hampton is gonna lost to 29 anymore. RB appears to be back in vogue now and there are enough decent teams that are gonna feel like they're a RB away from being explosive.

This is gonna be a weird opinion, but I'll state it anyway:

I think RB's going out of vogue was basically the product of two major developments:

#1: The RB Drought of 2009-2014, a six season drought in which every single RB draft class was below average, crap or horrific. Every Single one.

That reality meant extra weight was put on the classes from '03-'08 to play late into their careers to limited returns and it meant that the crash out age curve of RB's artificially got cut down even further than was typical, slipping to the 25.5-26 range in terms of peak production years.

The other piece was that while there was this RB drought, the RB's that broke the drought from '15, '16 and '17 came in, but also almost uniformally were torpedoed by the Age Cliff (26).

Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon in '15 did not last far into their second contracts. From 2016, a largely horrible class, only Derrick Henry, and Kamara lasted deep into their second contracts. Flagship RB Zeke Elliot ran aground basically during the '20 and '21 seasons (his age 25/26 seasons), and has been a backup, crappy starter since. The view with Henry is the stupid light usage from Tennessee early in his career, along with Kamara, probably gave them a bit more runway than a guy like Zeke or Gurley or Gordon who were immediately made bell cows. From '17, nearly all the studs have either disappeared (Fournette, Dalvin Cook) or gone into decline (Mixon, McCaffrey), even '18 had seen Barkley fall off until this year, and Chubb fall off, both getting hit by the injury bug.

The reality was we had three problems:
#1 A huge RB drought from '09-'14, left a gaping hole at the position with noone to fill it.

#2 Despite the arrival of several solid to great classes ('15, '17, '18, and later, '20 to the present for the most part), most of the elite RB prospects still fell by the wayside between ages 25-27 in their careers, which meant teams got wise to the fact that RB's simply weren't typically worth HUGE 2nd contracts, and that meant RB's should be worth HUGE Draft Capital expenditures.

#3 Because of the latter, the league developed a moneyball approach to the position, especially after they saw several teams crash into a ditch drafting RB's way too high in the Rams with Gurley, Cowboys kind of with zeke (he was good but wasn't worth the draft capital cost), Jags with Fournette, Pats with Michel, Seahawks with Penney, Chiefs with CEH, Steelers with Najee etc)

As a result of that moneyballish result, the bears and eagles got steals with Monty and Sanders in '19 (or so it seemed with Sanders), the Colts with Jonathan taylor in '20, the Seahawks and Jets with Walker and hall in round 2 of '22 etc, and only in '23, after a bunch of steals were snagged from '19-'22, did teams really start dipping inside the top 20 for RB's again, with the megaback Bijan, and swiss army knife Gibbs.

I don't think the league has fallen in love with RB's again so much as it's seen a decade long run of mostly good or better classes ('15, '17, '18, '20, '21-'23 top heavy, with only '16, '19, and '24 sticking out as particularly thin at the position the past 11 clases) in a majority of years, w/a high percentage of the prospects hitting at least their floors and often better other than the huge miss that was the loaded '18 class. When you combine that, with the first example in eons of signing overaged RB's actually paying off, in '24 with guys like Barkley, Henry, Mixon, Jacobs, and Aaron Jones all having outstanding to productive seasons despite being 6-8 years into their career, something we hadn't seen with old FA RB's from a class in decades (probably the '01-'05 classes).

So I tend to think the league last year, went FA heavy mostly because the '24 RB class was known to be garbage (the flagship dude, Jonathan Brooks, had a torn ACL, and was a 1 year starter after Bijan left, and the #2 back was a projection prospect in Trey Benson, and after that the roof caved in (Bucky would surprise, and he had some inviting periperals, but people had no idea what to think of them coming in which is why the Bucs were able to nab him so late), and now RB's are hot and heavy, not because the league is going RB crazy, but because we have our deepest RB class maybe ever, if not the top heavy type and scale of '17, it's insanely deep in terms of guys whod typically go between around slot 25 and 125, maybe as many as 20, when its usually about 4-8 in that zone.


What are we gonna do? With or without that quote I assumed we'd trade down and address RB in round 2 or 3 because Jeanty and Hampton are going to be gone, and it doesn't sound like Judkins or Kaleb Johnson make a lot of sense to them. That means a deal down. I hope Peters is taking it seriously as insiders say the RB class of '26 is hot garbage on the level of '24, and '27 while better isn't much better. This is the year to get one, while the talent is there, and the draft capital cost, lower than is typical.

[The Consigliere]

Higgins is my guy this year similar to Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey this year. But we're just in a weird spot where 29 would be too early to take him, and he won't last to our 2nd rounder.

Would be the ideal pick up if we could trade down to like 35 ish.

Very much prefer his teammate Noel. Earlier breakout, great athletic profile (they both have a great athletic profile), and some tape dorks I trust like him significantly better. The fact that you can get him a bit later makes it even better too. He doesn't give you the size of Higgins, but I am more convinced that Noel will hit.

But I also would just prefer to trade down and hit the line or secondary and RB, and push WR back until the loaded '27 class (I kinda think the Deebo, Gallup and Moore signings suggest the team is stop gapping the position with vets and McLaurin, and won't address the need with draft capital until probably '27, '26 WR class sucks, but its possible we try to fix it a class too early).

Anyway, would love to draft Noel if he drops into late day 2 early day 3. Good time for a reminder, WR hit rate after day 2 and especially after round 4 is unbelievably miniscule. If we don't target a WR in the first four rounds, we should not draft any period.

[The Consigliere]

Looking at last year's draft, one thing I noticed is that AP likes older and more experienced prospects.

Seven of our nine picks were 23 at the time of the draft (although McCaffery turned 23 like three weeks before).

Only Sinnott and Newton were 22 when drafted, with both turning 23 within a few months of the draft and before the season started.

Essentially, every single one of our rookies started their rookie season at age 23. Quite a few of them turned 24 before season's end. Dominique Hampton will be 25(!) before the start of his second season.

So when looking at prospects, if anyone that is mocked to us is in that age 23 range, its more likely they're the pick.

Prospects that fit this age model(that will realistically likely be available at our pick):

Emeka Egbuka (23 in October)
Xavier Watts (24 in November)
Shavon Revel (23 in April)
Trey Amos (turned 23 in March)
Jahdae Barron (24 in December but not sure he'll be there)

Probably should check out his habits in SF, to see if that's just a small sample size thing? If he wanted more veteran prospects for a team where he had to turn over more than half of the roster, and doing it with 21/22 year olds might not have been ideal? I'm skeptical of that as a long term preference for him as historically, it's an idiotic strategy and he's not an idiot.

[mistertim]

Looking at last year's draft, one thing I noticed is that AP likes older and more experienced prospects.

Seven of our nine picks were 23 at the time of the draft (although McCaffery turned 23 like three weeks before).

Only Sinnott and Newton were 22 when drafted, with both turning 23 within a few months of the draft and before the season started.

Essentially, every single one of our rookies started their rookie season at age 23. Quite a few of them turned 24 before season's end. Dominique Hampton will be 25(!) before the start of his second season.

So when looking at prospects, if anyone that is mocked to us is in that age 23 range, its more likely they're the pick.

Prospects that fit this age model(that will realistically likely be available at our pick):

Emeka Egbuka (23 in October)
Xavier Watts (24 in November)
Shavon Revel (23 in April)
Trey Amos (turned 23 in March)
Jahdae Barron (24 in December but not sure he'll be there)

Probably should check out his habits in SF, to see if that's just a small sample size thing? If he wanted more veteran prospects for a team where he had to turn over more than half of the roster, and doing it with 21/22 year olds might not have been ideal? I'm skeptical of that as a long term preference for him as historically, it's an idiotic strategy and he's not an idiot.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Could just be a small sample size where it was either a coincidence or he wanted more "ready now" players. In 2019, SF drafted three 21 year olds, one 22 year old, and three 23 year olds. I'd have to take a look at some of their other drafts when AP was there, but I'm leaning towards he just wants the best players. AP probably prefers some extra experience, but if the guy is good enough he'll forego that.

[DWinzit]

Looking at last year's draft, one thing I noticed is that AP likes older and more experienced prospects.

Seven of our nine picks were 23 at the time of the draft (although McCaffery turned 23 like three weeks before).

Only Sinnott and Newton were 22 when drafted, with both turning 23 within a few months of the draft and before the season started.

Essentially, every single one of our rookies started their rookie season at age 23. Quite a few of them turned 24 before season's end. Dominique Hampton will be 25(!) before the start of his second season.

So when looking at prospects, if anyone that is mocked to us is in that age 23 range, its more likely they're the pick.

Prospects that fit this age model(that will realistically likely be available at our pick):

Emeka Egbuka (23 in October)
Xavier Watts (24 in November)
Shavon Revel (23 in April)
Trey Amos (turned 23 in March)
Jahdae Barron (24 in December but not sure he'll be there)

I think you hit it with the more experience and maturity than it is age.
Of last years draft picks only Sinnott did not play in at least 40 games. He played in 38.

Also, they all showed improvement through every year of college and they all had all conference minimum accolades