Draft thread

[mhd24]

I posted this earlier in this thread, but here are some recent trade downs for picks around #29 in the past few drafts:

2019:
Seattle traded #30 to NYG for #37+#132 (late 4th)+#142 (early 5th)
Rams traded #31+#203 (late 6th) to Atlanta for #45 (mid 2nd)+#79 (mid 3rd)

2022:

Tampa traded #27 for #33+#106 (an early 4th)+#180 (an early 6th) to Jacksonville.

2024:
Buffalo traded #28+#133 (late 4th)+#248 (late 7th) to KC for #32+#95 (late 3rd)+#221 (early 7th)
Buffalo traded #32+#200 (mid 6th) to Carolina for #33+#141 (early 5th).

We currently have a late 1st, late 2nd, early mid 3rd, early 5th, late 6th, and two late 7ths. Trading down is probably the right option, we just need a dance partner to do it. Like, Chicago might really want Hampton (an example of RB2). With two early 2nds, I could see 29+148 for 39+72 as example trade down that might make sense if we want to get an early 3rd like that.

I think we are going to target tackle in FA and kick Coleman inside to RG to replace Cosmi (who might not come back until really late next year). I don't love Ronnie Stanley with his injury history, but he'd still be an upgrade and allow us a stopgap at LT for 2-3 years. Heck, Chris Paul pretty darn well in the NFC title game, and he's our strongest guard.

Rumors already persist that we are targeting the DT Osi from Dallas which makes sense considering DQ's familiarity with him.

I love what Wagner brought from a leadership perspective, but he was SLOW as molasses in the Philly playoff game. I know he had an ankle injury, but it was painful watching him. Maybe McGee shows up as a potential future starter. Still, we need LB play pretty badly. With the way the draft is going to go, I figure RB2 might be the most value at our spot at 29. B-Rob had zero juice in the playoffs. Rodriguez is a way more natural RB with better instincts. He should have played more. I'm kind of done with B-Rob to be honest and wouldn't mind trading him if we could find a taker. We won't get much, but if we draft a RB high, that back is going to start probably for us anyways. Might as well get some value for B-Rob and put Rodriguez in his place. We won't get near the talent of RB with our late 2nd considering the run that will be expected at that position, but missing out on a young DL also would hurt if we don't take DL at 29. We really need more youth along our DL.

[skinsinparadise]

As for the Dejean trade its trending as a mistake but will see. Sainristill was good and is a culture guy but he doesn't yet at least seem to be as good as Dejean. It's amazing how most trade downs have burned us over the years. Trading down with Dallas so they can take D. Lawrence and we get Trent Murphy and change. Kerrigan is great but not worth the price of skipping on JJ Watt just to have Jenkins (who was a bust) as part of the deal. Crowder and change to give Seattle, Lockett.

Not having him pick six us in a playoff game, and having him to return kicks would have significantly helped us in the short term window of the trade's impact. Who knows if we would have drafted him though?

I think Sainristil is a stud (kind of feels like the defense version of Terry), but the real issue in the value of that trade for me is that Johnny Newton didn't look that good. And that was surprising to me. He was supposed to be where we cleaned up on value from trading down, and his college film was so good that I thought he would translate for sure. Instead he just looked small and like a liability in the run game, and had a game ending offsides penalty in the most obvious hard count situation in football history. I'm using hindsight to criticize Peters because I liked the trade down at the time. I thought there was the potential for it to come back and haunt us, but I didn't think it would be so immediate and drastic. Newton is going to need to get good next year to salvage this trade for us.

I've been messing with mock draft simulators and keep trying to come up with trade down scenarios where we come away with the players I wanted all along, but maybe we should just take the hint from our team history and stop trading down. Bill Simmons used to say "never trade paper for coins" in the context of NBA roster building. I didn't think it applied to the NFL draft, but maybe it does.

Free agency is a different matter though. I think Adam Peters demonstrated that coins > paper in free agency dollars given the value we got from our free agent class. A little bit of money spread among a lot of pretty good players instead of loading up on just a couple really good ones.

With Newton maybe it was his injuries coming into the season, missed camp, too. Surprised that the whole D line, DTs too struggled against the run. At least according to PFF, Newton had one of his best games in the last one against the Eagles. If so maybe its a harbinger of good things to come.

As for trading down, almost always love it in theory but its eerie how the trading partner seems to end up with the better end of the deal.

[GoingCommando]

This is a great highlight video:



PFN has Fannin Jr at 35 on their board right now, so unless his stock rockets up during the offseason, he's in play for us at 29. Crazy that there could be three first round TEs in this class, which is fortunate for our roster needs.

[mhd24]

This is a great highlight video:



PFN has Fannin Jr at 35 on their board right now, so unless his stock rockets up during the offseason, he's in play for us at 29. Crazy that there could be three first round TEs in this class, which is fortunate for our roster needs.

Listened to Todd Macshay's latest podcast (he's at the Ringer now) and he said (after talking with league sources), that Warren is going very high, Loveland soon thereafter, and then Mason Taylor will be TE3 and could go late 1. The Arroyo kid from Miami seems like TE4 (Kiper likes him as TE3 and said he could go late 1). Macshay said Fanin is more late R2.

[ACommanderNotCaptain]

This is a great highlight video:



PFN has Fannin Jr at 35 on their board right now, so unless his stock rockets up during the offseason, he's in play for us at 29. Crazy that there could be three first round TEs in this class, which is fortunate for our roster needs.

I still think he goes bottom half of 2nd to 3rd round range. Not the top half of the 2nd. When he was at the Senior Bowl, it was clear who the Top 2 TE's were, and Fannin wasn't close to that duo. That said, I can see Fannin being TE4 over Arroyo, despite the Senior Bowl because of college production. Arroyo didn't do anything until his senior year, in fairness his first 2 seasons the starting TE was drafted in the 5th round, but he still couldn't carve out any production his junior year after that guy left.

Edit: Just checked Brugler's updated Top 100, and Fannin is his TE6.

[GoingCommando]

Listened to Todd Macshay's latest podcast (he's at the Ringer now) and he said (after talking with league sources), that Warren is going very high, Loveland soon thereafter, and then Mason Taylor will be TE3 and could go late 1. The Arroyo kid from Miami seems like TE4 (Kiper likes him as TE3 and said he could go late 1). Macshay said Fanin is more late R2.

What am I missing with Arroyo? He's just a big lumbering zone beater with zero route running chops, coordination, or YAC wiggle. I think mocking him over Fannin Jr is such an obviously bad ranking that I find it difficult to understand where that take comes from.

Taylor I can see more of a case for. The athleticism looks like its there with Taylor, but I would never rank or draft him ahead of Fannin Jr. It sounds like the big draftniks are majorly overthinking Fannin. When a TE catches 100 balls in college and rips off 50 yard housecalls with some regularity, he's special. He runs away from defenders in the open field in a way that reminds of Travis Kelce in 2012.

SIP just talked about the primacy of separation and route running skills for TEs. Fannin Jr is by far the savviest route runner in the TE class and his mid-route separation skills are as good as it gets IMO. He smokes man off coverage against corners.

[DWinzit]

PFN has Fannin Jr at 35 on their board right now, so unless his stock rockets up during the offseason, he's in play for us at 29. Crazy that there could be three first round TEs in this class, which is fortunate for our roster needs.

If a QB throws a ball, Fannin finds a way to catch it. What hands and tracking skills he has. Exciting to watch all of the highlight videos. Other than getting the ball, he isn't physical though whether getting off press and he can't really block.

[skinsinparadise]

This is a great highlight video:



PFN has Fannin Jr at 35 on their board right now, so unless his stock rockets up during the offseason, he's in play for us at 29. Crazy that there could be three first round TEs in this class, which is fortunate for our roster needs.

I've watched him a little bit. Seemed like the Senior Bowl gave him mixed reviews, some liking what they saw and some didn't and guys like Arroyo soared on mocks post Senior Bowl. Now I see him mostly in the late 2nd or third in most mocks. 91 on PFF's big board and if I recall he was higher before the Senior Bowl.

I got to watch him more, his stats are sick. Really good hands and YAC guy, too. But I wonder about his speed. I saw someone compare him to Harrison Bryant. I don't know if they are that similar. But they are in one sense that they both have long legs and need a half a sec to accelerate. On first blush, i am intrigued but not sure about the first round. I want to see his combine. But he's definitely on my radar.

Having said that I haven't really dived into TEs aside from Warren and Loveland including Fannin need to do a deeper dive.

[skinsinparadise]

I am sticking to mostly RBs until I feel like I have a handle on that class. The three obvious positions as to need-BPA with this draft seems to be RB, O line, DE. TE always intrigues me but I wonder if they take one in this draft. Just reading the descriptions of players at DT -- it comes off very intriguing but I haven't watched anyone yet.

I am acting like Jeanty doesn't exist, I expect him gone.

Hampton-Kaleb are complete backs. I am not obsessed with pure speed if I can get a complete back. If you have speed and power and size and hands, etc. Enough of everything even if speed isn't killer. Though I am very interested to see what Kaleb runs. I think his speed migh surprise, will see.

Henderson and Sampson are explosive with real speed. I think I might be an outlier in maybe preferring Sampson out of the two but I need to watch the two one day soon back to back. Are they still there in the late 2nd? Don't know. Judging by mocks Henderson 50-50 chance will be there. Sampson more likely than not will be there but I wonder.

Skattebo I talked about. Power-fiesty back. i am not opposed to the idea for reasons I explained but its not my prefered flavor of RB for this team.

A lot of draft geeks like Neal in that third round rage. I do, too. Don't love him. I think the team would love his intangibles. Captain. Charity guy off the field. Locker room type. He's one of those RBs that sort of is medium as to power-speed. Has some power-some speed but doesn't major in either. Shifty with quick feet. Not a home run hitter. Doubles hitter. In that mode of a Bucky Irving. I know some like to compare Jordan James to Irving but to me Neal is a better comp but not sure he's as good -- not as shifty. I am ok with James but don't like him as much as Neal or Harvey or Giddens.

Giddens is very shifty -- east-west, hard to tackle. Elusive. Decent hands, too but had some drops. Like Neal, he's a go medium type. Not power. Not speed. Sort of a medium version of both.

If speed is what we want and we are waiting until the third round or maybe later -- I think it might be RJ Harvey. As I've mentioned previously he dances too much to the perimeter for my liking and I think that can lead to some negative runs in the NFL. But to my eyes he has breakaway speed and fits RPOs. Maybe a hair less fast than Sampson and Henderson. Will see at the combine. But he can take it to the house. Among this group, he had the most 15 plus yard runs and by a good margin.

I got to watch B. Smith who looks to have some speed too. But i feel a bit burned by the WR turned into a RB concept.

[ACommanderNotCaptain]

Listened to Todd Macshay's latest podcast (he's at the Ringer now) and he said (after talking with league sources), that Warren is going very high, Loveland soon thereafter, and then Mason Taylor will be TE3 and could go late 1. The Arroyo kid from Miami seems like TE4 (Kiper likes him as TE3 and said he could go late 1). Macshay said Fanin is more late R2.

What am I missing with Arroyo? He's just a big lumbering zone beater with zero route running chops, coordination, or YAC wiggle. I think mocking him over Fannin Jr is such an obviously bad ranking that I find it difficult to understand where that take comes from.

Taylor I can see more of a case for. The athleticism looks like its there with Taylor, but I would never rank or draft him ahead of Fannin Jr. It sounds like the big draftniks are majorly overthinking Fannin. When a TE catches 100 balls in college and rips off 50 yard housecalls with some regularity, he's special. He runs away from defenders in the open field in a way that reminds of Travis Kelce in 2012.

SIP just talked about the primacy of separation and route running skills for TEs. Fannin Jr is by far the savviest route runner in the TE class and his mid-route separation skills are as good as it gets IMO. He smokes man off coverage against corners.

I need to watch his gametape. But he showed route running chops at the senior bowl. He did a really good job at getting defenders hips pointing how he wanted and then cutting across them. He did it over and over again too, so it's a skill.

Cam Ward is a bit more of an improviser at QB, might not be hitting the timing windows to where Arroyo is really open before other coverage comes over. Or maybe the tape just doesn't show what he did at the Senior Bowl.