Republican Move to Mask $3.8 Trillion Tax-Cut Cost Rings Alarms
Senate Republicans are aiming to wipe away some $3.8 trillion of federal budget red ink from the GOP’s signature tax-and-spending bill with an unprecedented parliamentary maneuver, stoking concerns about long-term US fiscal policy.
Republicans are using a fast-track legislative process known as reconciliation, which will allow them to make President Donald Trump’s 2017 income-tax cuts permanent without Democratic support. The cost of such legislation has long been measured by comparing it to what would otherwise happen to the federal budget under the current law.
Senate Republicans want to start with a different assumption: that the current policy remains in place indefinitely. In that case, extending the 2017 tax cuts beyond 2025 wouldn’t add anything to federal deficits — because they’re simply maintaining the status quo. The Joint Committee on Taxation tallied a $3.8 trillion hit to deficits from keeping the 2017 rates in place another decade.
If successful, the maneuver would upend decades of precedent by sweeping away rules aimed at making it harder for legislators to do permanent damage to fiscal balances. Economists warn it would set a dangerous precedent for future legislation, by allowing the majority party to enact what appears to be a temporary measure and then later setting it in stone without an official cost.
“It immediately undercuts a lot of the benefit of reconciliation from the perspective of folks who are worried about deficit-finance changes,” said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, a policy think tank. “That’s why there are those limitations that are currently put in place.”
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